Latin America
Related: About this forumVenezuela's economic collapse is laid bare when you look at how little energy.......
........the country is consuming.
The country with the most oil reserves on the planet is facing a total economic crash, with wildly conflicting inflation estimates as high as 10,000,000% if the IMFs projections for this year are correct. There has been much discussion about the collapse in Venezuelas oil exports, intensified by US sanctions against the state oil company PDVSA, which substantially prevents any oil trading between the two countries and takes away a steady income stream for the country. To understand the scale of the crisis, however, it is vital to look at what has been happening to energy consumption inside the country itself.
Oil consumption in Venezuela fell 37% in five years up to 2017, a reminder that the country was struggling under the Maduro administration long before the latest sanctions, which came after opposition leader Juan Guaidó announced himself the countrys rightful president in January. Unfortunately, the oil decline is not an environmental achievement but a worrying symptom of Venezuelas economic conditions GDP is expected to have fallen 50% between 2015 and 2019.
Diesel consumption declined by 11% on average each year in 2013-17, and gasoline shows a similar pattern with an average annual decline of 7% or by 27% over the same five-year period. Together, the two fuels account for approximately 70% of total oil demand in the country. From the graphic below, you can see that the collapse in oil consumption and GDP are staggeringly similar.
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The view from the ground
People are not driving around anymore in Venezuela. To make things worse, 90% of buses were reportedly out of action by mid-2018. This is a society that just doesnt go out for work or travel. Businesses are also using less transportation, since they produce fewer goods than they used to including food. The last implication is terrifying, and can easily be missed when solely looking at numbers. It is possible to survive without a car, but not without food. A litre of milk can now easily cost a tenth of a monthly salary.
Read much more:
http://theconversation.com/venezuelas-economic-collapse-is-laid-bare-when-you-look-at-how-little-energy-the-country-is-consuming-112990
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That last sentence. I don't know how much milk costs in the cities, but here in the sticks where I buy it hot out of the cow, it's 1,000 bs per liter. That's 5.6% of the monthly salary. Add in transport to, and processing in, the cities and I can easily believe it reaches a tenth of a monthly salary. For the record, I've not seen processed, bottled milk sold anywhere here in YEARS.
at140
(6,110 posts)Bigger than any other country can descend so much under socialism on steroids.
GatoGordo
(2,412 posts)1.7 million percent inflation last year.
Daily minimum wage of 16 cents.
90%+ poverty level.
Venezuela was the economic envy of Latin America 20 years ago. A nation absolutely BLESSED with nearly every natural beauty and resource God could bestow upon a nation.
None of this could have happened by mistake. A gargantuan shit-storm of his size was planned.
Miguel M
(234 posts)I understand that the source is unacceptable to the pro coup crowd, but here, for some others ...
MRubio
(285 posts)......being willfully misled. I am definitely of the pro coup crowd, but also call 'em like I see 'em.
Outside of a few wealthy areas of Caracas I'd challenge anyone to find a well-supplied supermarket in most cities. I've explained why Caracas is the best-supplied city in the country. At the low income level it all has to do with keeping the masses calm. Maduro can't afford thousands of angry barrio-dwellers advancing on Miraflores demanding his head on a stick because of food shortages.
On the coast at Barcelona, Lecheria for example, one might find a well-stocked supermarket because of the wealthy who still live in that area and because there is still some tourist trade. Prices? Since Venezuela produces little of its needs, everything's based on the value of the dollar which is somewhere near 4,000 bs right now. When the average Venezuelan who has a job earns 18,000 bs per MONTH, you think they buy groceries every day at a supermarket like that? Only the remaining wealthy can afford to shop at well-stocked supermarkets.
Maturin, a major city to the east of here is thread-bare these days. I know this because my woman makes regular trips there (we still have some family and a home there) to buy products for re-sale. She usually returns with a fraction of what she was hoping to find. She says stores like Sigo and UniCasa, the largest in the city, are usually at least 50% bare and what is on the shelves is often of a single product. That's to say, if there's something like toilet paper or cooking oil, it's the same brand that fills up an entire shelf. I just asked her about milk in cartons and she said, "forget about that".
Here's something worth reading from Huffington Post that shows the norm here. Yeah, that right-wing rag.
A customer pushes a shopping cart past an empty meat counter at a grocery store in Caracas, Venezuela, on Jan. 9, 2018. Hordes of desperate shoppers emptied supermarkets and bodegas after the government ordered hundreds of grocery stores slash their prices in the latest attempt to stem hyperinflation.
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https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/venezuela-empty-grocery-shelves-photos_us_5a567751e4b08a1f624afcf6
More from that same article.
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How long do you think supermarkets can remain open when the government forces them to sell below cost?
Ghost Dog
(16,881 posts)... The economic and social crisis has grown exponentially for about five years now and has got to this rotten state of hyperinflation that were barely coping with, and which is breaking world records. This is the cause for the huge discontent that we have at this stage and for the important change in the correlation of political power in this juncture. In my opinion, this is a consequence of three fundamental facts: two of them circumstantial, and one structural.
The circumstantial causes are, first, the economic sabotage and blockade, described by the government as economic warfare. This factor is the most determinant in this serious economic and social situation that we are enduring. The trade exclusion and the blockade have caused a stagnation of 80% of what little was being produced in the countrys industries. It has also led to plummeting in the high levels of imports of food, medicines, raw materials and machinery that was occurring. It is also the cause of the hoarding and the fact that unscrupulous traders can set the price for all sorts of commodities, including the US dollar. The second circumstantial cause is corruption, ineptitude, and impunity, which has soared in the past five years, although it can be traced back further. The level of corruption and ineptitude on the part of government functionaries is big and damaging. In many cases, it coincides with the sabotage of the elites and of imperialism, with the complicity of military and civilian functionaries, with regard to the speculative value of the market price of commodities that the people need. And the structural problem is that the national productive capacity is very low. This is also determined by the historic high level of oil income, which turned the local bourgeoisie into a very parasitic social class, always dependant on the price of oil. They prefer to import, rather than produce or export. Whether genetic or cultural in origin, this has defined the old bourgeoisie and this corrupt state bureaucracy, as well as the already emerging Boliburguesía [Bolivarian bourgeoisie] of the past 18 years. On this structural issue of the low national industrial production, the responsibility lies with the IVth Republic that lasted 50 years, and on the Vth Republic for the past 20 years.
Under Chávez, despite some appropriate programmes and plans to improve the development of national industry, this largely remained on paper, and the levels of national production needed were never made a reality. Under Chávez, from 2007 to 2012, that low production capacity didnt produce discontent as the high price of oil was enough to import even the most luxurious goods. But from 2013 to date, with Maduro, a high price has been paid for this mistake... The big solutions that President Maduro has implemented are the distribution of the famous food bags, contained in the CLAP [Local Committees of Distribution and Production], Compensation Bonuses for unspecified causes, and continuous increases to the minimum wage and food ticket for workers. Progressive measures, but they have not been enough to cover for the loss of purchasing power of workers salaries. So in the right wing demonstrations of January 23, the usual social base of middle-class people plus segments of workers were present, including some unions that until earlier this year were known for identifying with Chavismo...Its undeniable that there are high levels of corruption among government functionaries and state institutions. Its evident that theres no capacity to solve the economic crisis, to avoid fiscal deficit or capital flight, to control the price of the dollar and the costs of production and trade. It is a government that continues to pay the foreign debt in the middle of this imperialist economic blockade. They havent touched any of the monopolies, such as the Polar group and others, when these same monopolies hoard food stocks or distribute them arbitrarily and overpriced...
... If (the government) doesnt act soon, resolving the consequences of its stagnation in these economic and social aspects, these will do more damage than any missile or incoming imperialist humanitarian aid. If it doesnt control problems, effectively and in the long term, such as currency exchange speculation, supply shortages, and the price of food and medicines, or encourage the national production of goods and services, in the mid-term it will lose its social base and will find it difficult to survive. Among other measures it has to decide to stop paying the foreign debt, block capital flight, impose progressive taxation on assets, and promote the distribution and control of goods by a Communal State and of the workers. Otherwise we will fail...
https://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/14363
GatoGordo
(2,412 posts)They will ALWAYS spout the party line. (sanctions, blockades causing all the trouble in Venezuela)
The sanctions (up until a few months ago) only affected about 40 Chavistas. Nothing else.
There was no blockade. US firms/individuals could not refinance Venezuela's shitty PdVSA debt. Any other country was free to deal with the Chavistas. Seems nobody stepped up. Neither China nor Russia.
MRubio
(285 posts)"... If (the government) doesnt act soon, resolving the consequences of its stagnation in these economic and social aspects, these will do more damage than any missile or incoming imperialist humanitarian aid. If it doesnt control problems, effectively and in the long term, such as currency exchange speculation, supply shortages, and the price of food and medicines, or encourage the national production of goods and services, in the mid-term it will lose its social base and will find it difficult to survive. Among other measures it has to decide to stop paying the foreign debt, block capital flight, impose progressive taxation on assets, and promote the distribution and control of goods by a Communal State and of the workers. Otherwise we will fail... "
This government has been in control for 20 years and the place has been wrecked. Now they're somehow going to fix it?
I'm reminded of when a chavista tells me, with a slow nod of authority, that there are warehouses full of rice, pasta, flour, you name it, all over the country, just waiting for the right price before it's released for sale. I then ask him, if that's the case, who's screwing the pueblo? The opposition? Afterall, who controls the dollars that are used to buy imported products? Who controls the ports? Who controls the permits required to move most ANYTHING by road in this country? Who controls the thousands upon thousands of armed road blocks all over the country that check papers and cargoes? All of that and yet the opposition is still screwing the pueblo?
The usual response: