Venezuela electrical leaders, experts deny blackout is part of cyber attack

[GatoGordo]

Fire that caused an overload would be the true cause of the blackout, according to leader of the Federation of Workers of the Electrical Industry
By: Aporrea.org | Sunday, 03/10/2019 08:14 PM

translated from Spanish

10 / 03.- Recovering the system could take several hours more "Maybe on Sunday night or Monday morning the service has been completely re-established," said Ali Briceño, Executive Secretary of the Federation of Workers of the Electrical Industry.

The problem is in the transmission line, he explained: "From the Malena electrical substation, located north of the Bolívar state, on the banks of the Orinoco River, to the Guri dam, which is in Puerto Ordaz, the weeds had grown in such a way that there was a vegetation fire that caused the 3 lines of 765 kW to come out, 2 due to heating and the other due to overload ".

He added: "Automatically the protections worked and the Guri machines went out. When that happens you have to calibrate the frequency and the people who have the capacity and technical knowledge are no longer with us.

He noted that the phenomenon of migration has impacted on the payrolls of the state electricity. "The eminently technical staff of the corporation is gone," he said.

He said that the Guri dependence is close to 80%, which is why the thermoelectric power plants can not supply the population with electricity: "On top of that, maintenance has not been done to the transformers or anything, which makes that we are adrift and without any guarantee. "

Briceño explained that the reincorporation to the interconnected system that comes from the Guri is done by states. "What happens is that there are more than 20 entities out, so if the income is very fast then there is a risk that there will be another collapse and it should be restarted, as it happened," he said. He reported that 70% of the country's transformers have reached their useful life.

"Apart from lack of maintenance there may be other sensitive events," he warned.

There was no "cyber attack"

Briceó dismissed the possibility that there was a cybernetic attack on the Guri: "We have to clarify that the government, especially the minister Jorge Rodríguez, lies with cynicism and self-confidence. That is impossible, more when we have already located what was the fault".

https://www.aporrea.org/actualidad/n339266.html

Occam's Razor. You can believe the simplest, common sense answer to why an entire country is without electricity, or you can believe the outrageous conspiracy theory of a compulsive liar (Maduro) and his band of merry morons.

[MRubio]

1. I assume that Ali Briceo is now under arrest....

......in the land of tyranny, the truth is treason.

[Ghost Dog]

2. Is there any reason given as to why a cyberattack "is impossible"? n/t

[MRubio]

3. Not impossible, but unlikely in this case......

.....I know nothing about our electrical system other than people often go without.

We went without often when I lived in Maturin which is a major city. We went without often when I first moved to where I live now but as I've mentioned elsewhere, 3 or 4 years ago, after repeated failures and power surges that damaged equipment and appliances, the locals shut down the national highway often enough that we were allowed to connect to a PDVSA substation on the main highway, AT OUR EXPENSE. That's to say, the townspeople paid for the connections, the power poles, wiring, and labor to do the job. Since then, we've had very few problems as before. If anyone gets their electricial power, it's PDVSA.

Over the weekend, sitting out front of the house late in the day to enjoy the breeze, a guy who works for CORPOLEC, the power company, came walking by. He used to drive a CORPOLEC vehicle, but it's been parked for almost a year for lack of spare parts. Anyway, I asked him if he'd heard anything of significance and he said all he knew was that this one was huge. I asked if the usual excuse of sabotage would be believed and he said, "this is clearly the result of years of lack of maintenance on a national level".

I believe the guy. Everything else has gone without maintenance, why not the electrical grid?

[Ghost Dog]

5. Ok, then the lack of maintenance is real

and could have provoked a nationwide blackout through a domino effect?

That, even so, still wouldn't preclude sabotage including cyberattack?

To assert that there is lack of maintenance therefore there could not have been any sabotage would be a logical fallacy.

Apparently, the USA has a plan for regime change in Cuba which runs: 1) Sanctions; 2) Humanitarian aid false flag; 3) Take out the power grid; 4) Massive protests...

[GatoGordo]

8. Cascading effect

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cascading_failure

Between 7 and 14 more weeks of serious rotating blackouts
By: Oscar Heck | Sunday, 03/10/2019 03:26 PM

translated from Spanish

There are people who believe Maduro and his inept combo of ministers and collaborators, but I do not, and I will tell you why here (among other things).

For example, they --- Maduro and company --- are saying that 70% of the country's electricity is restored, that within a few hours the national blackout will have been resolved, that this and that, which was a sabotage, and things so, but what they are not telling us, maybe because they think we are "Indians" and "monkeys" of the jungles, without brains, ignorant, and despicable, is that what is happening with the national electrical system is called ( in English) a "cascade failure" or "cascading failure."

This translates into "cascade failure," that is, it refers to a type of failure where one or the other fault causes other failures in other systems or in parts of the same system that are dependent or interdependent on the system where the first failure occurred, like a domino effect.

Well, this type of cascade failure is very difficult to fix and it takes a lot of time to do it because to repair it effectively you have to check all systems and subsystems and all parts of all those systems, and it is even more difficult when it comes to systems immense proportions such as a national electricity distribution system, or drinking water by pipeline, or for example a telecommunication system based on the internet or on satellites.

If the internet were completely turned off, and if all the space satellites fell from the sky, well, then everything else would fail, nothing or almost nothing would work, neither the points of sale, nor the banks, nor the televisions, nor the phones, etc., nothing.

But the thing gets harder when you do not know the origin of the faults, so how do you do it to solve the problem?

Well, that's the problem, and we're there, but they do not tell us anything, they try to hide it.

-snip-

https://www.aporrea.org/energia/a276872.html

[Ghost Dog]

9. ... Where 'failure' means circuit-breakers tripping, not substations blowing up!

Eg. Northern India's 2012 blackout, the largest in the world:

At 02:35 IST (21:05 UTC on 29 July), circuit breakers on the 400 kV Bina-Gwalior line tripped. As this line fed into the Agra-Bareilly transmission section, breakers at the station also tripped, and power failures cascaded through the grid. All major power stations were shut down in the affected states, causing an estimated shortage of 32 GW.[6] Officials described the failure as "the worst in a decade".[16]

On the day of the collapse, Power Minister Sushilkumar Shinde stated that the exact cause of the failure was unknown, but that at the time of the failure, electricity use was "above normal". He speculated that some states had attempted to draw more power than permitted due to the higher consumption. Spokesperson for PowerGrid Corporation of India Limited (PGCIL) and the Northern Regional Load Dispatch Centre (NRLDC) stated that Uttar Pradesh, Punjab and Haryana were the states responsible for the overdraw. PGCIL's chairman also stated that electrical service was restored "at a record time".[6]

A senior director for an Indian power company described the outage as "a fairly large breakdown that exposed major technical faults in India's grid system. Something went terribly wrong which caused the backup safety systems to fail."[17]

More than 300 million people, about 25% of India's population, were without power. Railways and some airports were shut down until 08:00.[18] The busiest airport in South Asia, Delhi Airport, continued functioning because it switched to back-up power in 15 seconds.[17][19] The outage caused "chaos" for Monday morning rush hour, as passenger trains were shut down and traffic signals were non-operational.[6] Trains stalled for three to five hours.[18] Several hospitals reported interruptions in health services,[6] while others relied on back-up generators.[16] Water treatment plants were shut down for several hours,[18] and millions were unable to draw water from wells powered by electric pumps.[14]

The Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India (ASSOCHAM) stated that the blackout had "severely impacted" businesses, leaving many unable to operate.[20] Oil refineries in Panipat, Mathura and Bathinda continued operating because they have their own captive power stations within the refineries and do not depend on the grid.[6]

It took 15 hours to restore 80% of service.[17]

31 July The system failed again at 13:02 IST (07:32 UTC), due to a relay problem near the Taj Mahal.[21] As a result, power stations across the affected parts of India again went offline. NTPC Ltd. stopped 38% of its generation capacity.[22] Over 600 million people (nearly half of India's population), in 22 out of 28 states in India, were without power.[5]...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_India_blackouts#Sequence_of_events

The AP Agency newswire today reports:

... Critical conductors had overheated at the hydroelectric station at the Guri Dam, the cornerstone of Venezuela’s electrical grid, said Winston Cabas, the head of Venezuela’s electrical engineers union, which opposes the government. He disputed government allegations that the dam was the target of sabotage and blamed the problem on a lack of maintenance as well as the departure of skilled workers from the troubled country over the years.

“The system is vulnerable, fragile and unstable,” he said.

President Nicolas Maduro has accused Guaido and the United States of staging a “cyberattack” on Venezuela’s power grid. Information Minister Jorge Rodriguez earlier described it as a cyberattack on the dam’s operating system, which signals to machines whether to boost or diminish power based on capacity and demand.

The U.S. dismisses the allegation...

https://apnews.com/07e2f8abb3a64506a91d11dfd69e86cc

AP either does not ask, for some reason, why in Sr. Cabas's opinion or according to his information did these critical conductors overheat at the hydroelectric station at the Guri Dam, the proximate cause, or for some reason fails to report the answer. Information Minister Jorge Rodriguez does, on the other hand, point to an alleged proximate cause: a cyberattack causing machines to boost power regardless of capacity or demand.

[GatoGordo]

10. You could put what I know about electricity on a sheet of paper.

I know nothing about the generation of electricity, nor how transformers/substations do what they do.

But when an authority on electricity says something, I tend to give them more benefit of the doubt than a known compulsive liar who doesn't give the least shit about his own people and is more concerned with staying in power at all costs.

So, I trust the words of an electrical engineer (Sr. Cabas) over Maduro, the known liar.

[mahina]

13. I'm trying to understand what's happening there. I don't understand what you said about US plans

In Cuba.

Are we doing that in Venezuela and Cuba in your view, or just Cuba? I didn’t know. Where do you read about this?

Thanks very much.

[Ghost Dog]

14. It was an old plan from the 'seventies for Cuba. Looks like it's been dusted off

and is being applied to Venezuela.

I don't have a link. I saw a photo of a document with relevant passages highlighted.

The Trump administration is saying that Cuba and Nicaragua will be next, according to their strategy...

[mahina]

15. Oh, I got you now. Jesus. It's time to really resist this crap, though that feels a little

Impossible.

What in the world are we thinking? We haven’t had enough of this stuff yet?

Who made us the world’s fixers, or breakers?

[GatoGordo]

16. I think everyone who thinks "resist" ought to spend a month in Venezuela

Just to get a feel for what they think they are resisting.

[mahina]

17. I've read your posts and appreciate your perspective, but wonder how

The US backed Guaido solution can be known to be better?

Who made us the world’s international police? What gives us the right to go in to another country and change their government?

Do you think the UN has a role in a situation like this?

Looking forward to learning more.

My Father gave his future to a failed war in Vietnam now 50 years ago, because we thought as a country that we had a right and a responsibility to go fix another country.

Where does this end?

Aloha.

[mahina]

19. When Pinochet allowed an election and lost, to his surprise, though people were terrified to protest

There are peaceful alternatives

[GatoGordo]

4. I would say it is impossible because the Castroists cannot tell the truth

They say its sabotage. A cyber attack.

Ergo, it must not be sabotage. It must not be a cyber attack.

They lie, they lie and they lie. They cannot tell the truth.

Second point. Occams Razor.

When I wake up in the morning, and I see the road in front of my house is wet, I can assume that either

A. It rained while I slept, or
B. A 300 meter tall giant straddled my street and peed all over it while I slept.

The Law of Parsimony.

Corpoelec employees and engineers have warned for YEARS of under-investment and corruption. That they got 20 years out of the infrastructure speaks volumes about how lucky the Chavistas have been up to now. Rolling blackouts are the norm.

So, should we believe the people who work with the electrical grid daily, or the lying thieves of Miraflores who couldn't change out a light switch?

[GatoGordo]

6. What Chavistas at Aporrea.org are saying about the disaster

Maduro: The blackout, is not pyrrhic, it's historic, and for beating!
By: Edgar Perdomo Arzola | Sunday, 03/10/2019 10:18 AM

translated from Spanish

-snip-

The national blackout described above was due to continuous failures due to the lack of investment and maintenance, coupled with the lack of investment-maintenance of the backup power plants that distribute the energy.

This technically proven that there is no maintenance, and now the de-professionalization in the sector is added, consequently, there is no possibility of backing the existing thermoelectric power plants.

But the failures in the SEN that have originated in the last hours are added to the existing weakness in the connections of the system.

The national blackout that occurred on Thursday, March 7, is due to the country's "lack of support" with respect to interconnection in the electricity system.

Any disturbance that occurs in the transmission lines, severely impact on the quality of service, because the thermoelectric plants are off, since there is no backup energy to the interconnected system, and this is supported by the most experienced experts in the field consulted. He also reiterated the need to generate new investments to the national electricity system. To solve the problems that generate failures in the system, and that will persist if there is no investment or maintenance.

The electricity deficit in Venezuela is notorious, affecting productive activities such as industry, commerce, services, agriculture, health, tourism, banking, hotels, aggravated by this national blackout.

-snip-

https://www.aporrea.org/energia/a276866.html

[GatoGordo]

7. According to a friend who works for the local power co-op here

Link to tweet

Translation: #Attention The dawn of this Monday #11Mar, an explosion was registered in #Concresa, Baruta Municipality. The fire of a transformer, again left the neighbors of the area without electric service.

This is going to be an ongoing problem for Venezuela, as the problem isn't as simple as flipping a switch and replacing a transformer or generator. EVERY time the Merry Morons at Miraflores flip the on/off switch at Guri, this is going to happen. I really don't understand electricity (I can run wire and wire outlets/switches), but I respect the opinions of those who do. Many thousands of miles of wire and EVERY sub station needs to be tested and passed before the lights go on.

[MRubio]

11. Last Thursday afternoon at about this time or slightly earlier......

........we noticed that the power here at the house was fluctuating, so much so that I flipped a number of breakers to our freezers and refrigerators just in case. One freezer's fan had started making a racket beforehand. Cable TV also went off the air completely.

By then, a significant part of the country was already without power though we didn't know that. It wasn't until just before 8PM that we lost power here.

[MRubio]

12. Gato, I've been talking to Marc who posted across the street.......

..........he's over on the other side of the country from me. His power went out last Thursday as well though they're still without. Fortunately, he's got a decent-sized generator that's helping him keep his sanity.

Also just told me via phone of a young girl they heard about who was in trouble, lack of food, 3 small kids, no water in the house. Mother shows up at the hospital with the child near death because she's been eating rice-water with a little sugar, nothing else. Child dies, mother collapses in the hospital from malnutrition. Marc and his wife head over to the girl's house to find the two kids living on their own under horrid conditions. They go to LODNA and get permission to take the kids to their place where they are being fed, clothed, and schooled with his kids, until mom can recover and take possession of her kids.

Since he's got a generator going at his house, the hospital (no generator) sends an emergency patient to them with a nebulizer for a child that needs medication administered via the nebulizer. So, they knock that one out as well.

And, as the saying goes, we go on.

[mahina]

18. Wow.

The hospital doesn’t have a generator?

Good luck to all.