What happens next in Venezuela? - CaspianReport

[TexasTowelie]

Summary of Venezuela's Post-Maduro Political Landscape

The video analyzes the complex situation following a U.S. raid that removed Venezuelan leader Maduro from power. While appearing as a victory for Washington, the reality presents significant challenges and risks.

Key Points:

Power Vacuum Crisis
- Maduro's removal doesn't eliminate Venezuela's government structure or Chavismo ideology
- Power operates through a coalition system based on patronage, oil revenues, and military control
- The military and various factions (governors, party officials) are now positioning themselves amid uncertainty

Trump's Strategy & Delcy Rodriguez
- U.S. prefers Vice President Delcy Rodriguez as interim leader with conditions
- Rodriguez faces a dilemma: comply with U.S. demands and risk being labeled a traitor, or resist and face consequences
- Key demands include increased U.S. oil sector access, reducing ties with Russia/China, and expelling guerrilla groups

Power Brokers & Obstacles
- Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino (controls armed forces) and Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello (commands paramilitary collectivos) remain powerful and under U.S. sanctions
- Democratic opposition, led by Maria Corina Machado, may mobilize mass protests demanding genuine change

Economic Reality
- Venezuela has lost over 75% of GDP in the past decade
- Oil production collapsed from 3.5 million to 1 million barrels/day
- The claimed 300 billion barrel reserves may be inflated; actual workable reserves could be closer to 100 billion
- Control of oil revenues is critical for any government's ability to function

Three Possible Outcomes

1. Managed Transition - Elections with technocratic council acceptable to military; requires economic relief and guarantees (best for Venezuelans, least likely)

2. Continuity Without Maduro - Cosmetic political change while power structures remain intact; Rodriguez provides bureaucratic cover (most likely short-term outcome)

3. Escalation - Violent power struggles, territorial fragmentation, and potential U.S. military entanglement similar to Iraq (most dangerous scenario)

The analysis warns that declaring victory and withdrawing would be reckless, but over-engineering outcomes could be equally problematic. Venezuela now serves as a critical test of American strategic judgment in managing regime change.