April payroll employment increases by 165,000; unemployment rate changes little (7.5%)

[mahatmakanejeeves]

I usually post this in LBN, but because of a fire in the building, no one was being allowed in when I arrived at work this morning. Someone else gets the fame, and I get to take the day off. Still, I wouldn't want to disappoint anyone, so here's the BLS report anyway:

April payroll employment increases by 165,000; unemployment rate changes little (7.5%)

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- APRIL 2013

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 165,000 in April, and the unemployment
rate was little changed at 7.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
reported today. Employment increased in professional and business services,
food services and drinking places, retail trade, and health care.

Household Survey Data

The unemployment rate, at 7.5 percent, changed little in April but has
declined by 0.4 percentage point since January. The number of unemployed
persons, at 11.7 million, was also little changed over the month; however,
unemployment has decreased by 673,000 since January. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for adult women
(6.7 percent) declined in April, while the rates for adult men (7.1
percent), teenagers (24.1 percent), whites (6.7 percent), blacks (13.2
percent), and Hispanics (9.0 percent) showed little or no change. The
jobless rate for Asians was 5.1 percent (not seasonally adjusted),
little changed from a year earlier. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

In April, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27
weeks or more) declined by 258,000 to 4.4 million; their share of the
unemployed declined by 2.2 percentage points to 37.4 percent. Over the
past 12 months, the number of long-term unemployed has decreased by
687,000, and their share has declined by 3.1 percentage points. (See
table A-12.)

The civilian labor force participation rate was 63.3 percent in April,
unchanged over the month but down from 63.6 percent in January. The
employment-population ratio, 58.6 percent, was about unchanged over
the month and has shown little movement, on net, over the past year.
(See table A-1.)

== == == == ==

Good morning, Freepers and DUers alike. I especially welcome viewers from across the aisle. You're paying for this information too, so you ought to see this as much as anyone. Please, everyone, put aside your differences long enough to digest the information. After that, you can engage in your usual donnybrook.

If you don't have the time to study the report thoroughly, here is the news in a nutshell:

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/jec.nr0.htm
Commissioner's Statement on The Employment Situation

A gain of 88,000 is an extremely disappointing number. ADP, two days ago, came in at a gain of 158,000, and that was lower than expected. The estimates of a gain in employment that had been making the rounds earlier in the week were on the order of 200,000.

For August 2012, there was an increase of 96,000 jobs, according to the BLS. At the time, a commenter at DU said the number was "disappointing." March 2013's is lower than that. This is not good.

What is important about these statistics is not so much this month’s number, but the trend. So let’s look at some earlier numbers.

ADP, for employment in March 2013:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014442827
U.S. Economy Added 158,000 Private-Sector Jobs in March, According to ADP National Employment Report

BLS, for employment in February 2013:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014419050
February payroll employment rises (+236,000); unemployment rate edges down (7.7%)

ADP, for employment in February 2013:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/111631869
U.S. Economy Added 198,000 Private-Sector Jobs in February, According to ADP Employment Report

BLS, for employment in January 2013:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014387295
January payroll employment rises (+157,000); jobless rate essentially unchanged (7.9%)

ADP, for employment in January 2013:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014384927
U.S. Economy Added 192,000 Private-Sector Jobs in January, According to ADP National Employment Repo

BLS, for employment in December 2012:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014356331
December payroll employment rises (+155,000); unemployment rate unchanged (7.8%)

From The Wall Street Journal. of January 4, 2013:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324374004578221291910741394.html
Economy Adds 155,000 Jobs



ADP, for employment in December 2012:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014354896
U.S. Economy Added 215,000 Private-Sector Jobs in December, According to ADP National Employment Report

BLS, for employment in November 2012:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014328849
November payroll employment rises (+146,000); unemployment rate edges down (7.7%)

ADP, for employment in November 2012:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014326586
U.S. Economy Added 118,000 Private-Sector Jobs in November, According to ADP National Employment Rep

ADP, for employment in October 2012:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014286714
U.S. Economy Added 158,000 Private-Sector Jobs in October, According to ADP National Employment Report

BLS, for employment in September 2012:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=256565
U.S. Economy Added 114,000 Jobs In September, Unemployment Falls To 7.8%

and

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=256816
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics - The Employment Situation - September 2012

The charge was made that September’s BLS numbers were cooked. A fellow who used to head the BLS says this is not possible.

Impossible to Manipulate Labor Survey Data — Former BLS Head
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/10/05/impossible-to-manipulate-labor-survey-data-former-bls-head/

ADP, for employment in September 2012:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014254238
U.S. Private-Sector Employment Increased by 162,000 Jobs in September, According to ADP

BLS, for employment in August 2012:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014221739
August payroll employment rises (+96,000); unemployment rate edges down (8.1%)

The increase of 96,000 was really lackluster. It's not just lackluster, but, as the first response said, "disappointing." It's half the ADP estimate. Here is a quote from yesterday's ADP news release:

ADP, for employment in August 2012:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014220380
The ADP National Employment Report August 2012

BLS, for employment in July 2012:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014184289
July payroll employment rises (+163,000); jobless rate essentially unchanged (8.3%)

ADP, for employment in July. I heard an estimate earlier this morning that the growth in employment would be on the order of 100,000.

The ADP National Employment Report July 2012

BLS, for employment in June 2012:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014160067
Payroll employment continues to edge up in June (+80,000); jobless rate unchanged (8.2%)

Of particular importance for the BLS estimate for June was this article from that day’s Wall Street Journal.

Unemployment Line Longer Than It Looks‎

When May 2012’s figures were released, Judson Phillips of Tea Party Nation was on Tom Hartmann that Friday night. He kept referring to the "U-6 Number." That can be found in Table A15. It is "Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force." It appears in two forms, seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted. Either way, it is the least optimistic of all the estimates.

Thanks to DUer alp227, you can watch Judson Phillips’s appearance on Tom Hartmannn here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014184289#post12

ADP, for employment in June 2012:

ADP jobs up 176,000 (for June)

BLS, for employment in May 2012:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014133487
May payroll employment changes little (+69,000); jobless rate essentially unchanged (8.2%)

ADP, for employment in May 2012:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014132307
May change in employment +133,000

BLS, for employment in April 2012:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014113023
Payroll employment rises 115,000 in April; unemployment rate changes little (8.1%)

So how many jobs must be created every month to have an effect on the unemployment rate? There's an app for that.

http://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/calculator/index.cfm
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Jobs Calculator™

Well, enough of that. On with the show.

Monthly Employment Reports

The large print giveth, and the fine print taketh away.

A DU'er pointed out several months ago that, if I'm going to post the link to the press release, I should include the link to all the tables that provide additional ways of examining the data. Specifically, I should post a link to "Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization." Table A-15 includes those who are not considered unemployed, on the grounds that they have become discouraged about the prospects of finding a job and have given up looking. Here are those links.

Employment Situation

Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization

From the February 10, 2011, "DOL Newsletter":

Take Three

Secretary Solis answers three questions about how the Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates unemployment rates.

How does BLS determine the unemployment rate and the number of jobs that were added each month?

BLS uses two different surveys to get these numbers. The "household survey," or Current Population Survey (CPS), involves asking people, from about 60,000 households, a series of questions to assess each person in the household's activities including work and searching for work. Their responses give us the unemployment rate. The "establishment survey," or Current Employment Statistics (CES), surveys 140,000 employers about how many people they have on their payrolls. These results determine the number of jobs being added or lost.

[jtuck004]

1. Whew! For a while this past week I was actually worried that we wouldn't

be able to serve the fries, change the bedpans, and serve the little drinks with the umbrellas in them,but it appears the trend in those jobs continues. And those who depend on stocks and bonds can continue to sleep comfortably, knowing they are being served.

All is well.