Stock Market Watch, Thursday July 25, 2013

[Hotler]

[font size=3]STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday, 25 July 2013[font color=black][/font]

SMW for 24 July 2013

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON 24 July 2013
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[font color=red]Dow Jones 15,542.24 -25.50 (-0.16%)
[font color=red]S&P 500 1,685.94 -6.45 (-0.38%)
[font color=green]Nasdaq 3,579.60 +0.33 (0.01%)


[font color=red] 10 Year 2.49% -0.03 (-1.19%)
[font color=red] 30 Year 3.58% -0.03 (-0.83%)






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[font size=2]Market Conditions During Trading Hours[/font]
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[font size=2]Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold[center]

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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Market Data and News:[/font][/font]
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Economic Calendar
Marketwatch Data
Bloomberg Economic News
Yahoo Finance
Google Finance
Bank Tracker
Credit Union Tracker
Daily Job Cuts
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Economic Blogs:[/font][/font]
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The Big Picture
Financial Sense
Calculated Risk
Naked Capitalism
Credit Writedowns
Brad DeLong
Bonddad
Atrios
goldmansachs666
The Stand-Up Economist
The Automatic Earth
Wall Street on Parade
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Essential Reading:[/font][/font]
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Matt Taibi: Secret and Lies of the Bailout


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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Government Issues:[/font][/font]
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LegitGov
Open Government
Earmark Database
USA spending.gov
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Videos:[/font][/font]
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Charlie Rose talks with Roubini
Charlie Rose talks with Krugman
William Black: This Economic Disaster
Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn
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[font color=red]Partial List of Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 [/font][font color=red]
2/2/12 David Higgs and Salmaan Siddiqui, Credit Suisse, plead guilty to conspiracy involving valuation of MBS
3/6/12 Allen Stanford, former Caribbean billionaire and general schmuck, convicted on 13 of 14 counts in $2.2B Ponzi scheme, faces 20+ years in prison
6/4/12 Matthew Kluger, lawyer, sentenced to 12 years in prison, along with co-conspirator stock trader Garrett Bauer (9 years) and co-conspirator Kenneth Robinson (not yet sentenced) for 17 year insider trading scheme.
6/14/12 Allen Stanford sentenced to 110 years without parole.
6/15/12 Rajat Gupta, former Goldman Sachs director, found guilty of insider trading. Could face a decade in prison when sentenced later this year.
6/22/12 Timothy S. Durham, 49, former CEO of Fair Financial Company, convicted of one count conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, 10 counts of wire fraud, and one count of securities fraud.
6/22/12 James F. Cochran, 56, former chairman of the board of Fair, convicted of one count of conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, one count of securities fraud, and six counts of wire fraud.
6/22/12 Rick D. Snow, 48, former CFO of Fair, convicted of one count of conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, one count of securities fraud, and three counts of wire fraud.
7/13/12 Russell Wassendorf Sr., CEO of collapsed brokerage firm Peregrine Financial Group Inc. arrested and charged with lying to regulators after admitting to authorities he embezzled "millions of dollars" and forged bank statements for "nearly twenty years."
8/22/12 Doug Whitman, Whitman Capital LLC hedge fund founder, convicted of insider trading following a trial in which he spent more than two days on the stand telling jurors he was innocent
10/26/12 UPDATE: Former Goldman Sachs director Rajat Gupta sentenced to two years in federal prison. He will, of course, appeal. . .
11/20/12 Hedge fund manager Matthew Martoma charged with insider trading at SAC Capital Advisors, and prosecutors are looking at Martoma's boss, Steven Cohen, for possible involvement.
02/14/13 Gilbert Lopez, former chief accounting officer of Stanford Financial Group, and former controller Mark Kuhrt sentenced to 20 yrs in prison for their roles in Allen Sanford's $7.2 billion Ponzi scheme.
03/29/13 Michael Sternberg, portfolio mgr at SAC Capital, arrested in NYC, charged with conspiracy and securities fraud. Pled not guilty and freed on $3m bail.
04/04/13 Matthew Marshall Taylor,fmr Goldman Sachs trader arrested, charged by CFTC w/defrauding his employer on $8BN futures bet "by intentionally concealing the true huge size, as well as the risk and potential profits or losses associated."
04/04/13 Matthew Taylor admits guilt, makes plea bargain. Sentencing set for 26 June; faces up to 20 years in prison but will likely only see 3-4 years. Says, "I am truly sorry."
04/11/13 Ex-KPMG LLP partner Scott London charged by federal prosecutors w/passing inside tips to a friend in exchange for cash, jewelry, and concert tickets; expected to plead guilty in May.










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[font size=3][font color=red]This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.[/font][/font][/font color=red][font color=black]

[jtuck004]

1. An Analysis Of Long-Term Unemployment, With Some Help From Dilbert…

So research shows there is discrimination against those who have been out of work for awhile, maybe making more people aware of it will motivate the employer who is more concerned about business success than not standing out from their competitors re-think his or her position.

Or, if not, maybe the workers need to figure out a way to coordinate with each other and out-compete the bastards.

Much of the concern over the productivity of people who have been out of work for a long time appears to take this form:



Admittedly, that’s a little absurd (and is perhaps why I do work on the couch), but this one isn’t nearly as much so:



Given this, it’s not surprising that the hiring (and not hiring) of workers who have been unemployed for long stretches of time is of concern to economists. Of particular interest is whether human capital actually depreciates in the way that these cartoons would suggest- if it does, then it could be reasonable (read, efficient) for employers to be more hesitant to hire workers who had been out of work for longer stretches of time.

To find out, Kory Kroft of the University of Toronto, Fabian Lange of McGill University and Matthew Notowidigdo of the University of Chicago devised an experiment in which they applied for 3,000 clerical, administrative, sales and customer-service jobs advertised online by submitting 12,000 fictitious cvs. The submissions were designed so that applicants with similar backgrounds, education and experience went for the same job. The only difference was how long the applicant had been jobless, a period that ranged from no time at all to as much as 36 months.
...

..
I know a lot of people who are frustrated by the degree of path dependency that success in life seems to exhibit, and these findings certainly aren’t going to make them less cranky. Fortunately, even though there is no clear policy solution here, is is entirely possible that highlighting the problem of discrimination against the long-term unemployed (and explaining how it’s not based on legitimate concerns for the most part) could make employers think twice about acting as another part of the herd.*

Here
With a h/t to The Big Picture blog.

[Demeter]

2. The Employers don't care

Given the flood of resumes they get for the least significant job these days, they need the Great Divide so they don't have to interview everyone. That would take too much time!

I hope they get the worst possible candidates through that kind of laziness.

[Hotler]

6. Employers don't care, never have and never will. And why.....

do they not care? Because of selfishness.

[Demeter]

13. Say rather, It Doesn't Affect Them or their Bottom Line and there's NO Law to Make Them Care

Empathy is a natural gift....for anyone else, we need STRUCTURE!

[tclambert]

28. They care when unemployment dips so low they have to compete for workers.

THAT is when our system works best, when businesses have to compete with each other, for workers and for customers. When they don't have to compete, when they have monopolies and cartels dictating to the market, and high unemployment gives them a choice from many workers competing for the same jobs, well, that leads to a sucky economy.

Historically, when the unemployment rate falls below about 6%, we start to see businesses offering better benefits and better wages to entice workers to join their firms. Our economy blossoms when there's a labor shortage. But businesspeople hate that. The truth is, they hate competition, when they have to compete. They love situations like the last several years when they can say, "Hey, just be grateful you have a job."

[Demeter]

3. And Wally, here, has a good point

The US business manager is not known for any kind of straightforward, ethical stands...

If one were working for the NSA or the CIA, or even the FBI or Secret Service, this might be the perfect response.

Or some of the larger, uglier banks or wannabe banks...

[jtuck004]

19. I know that strip is named for Dilbert, but he works far too hard. Wally is my hero.

[Demeter]

18. To all Weekenders--Greetings!

I'm having a really bad second half of the week---trying to do the impossible, and for far too many hours on far too many days.

But, I have a topic, and our topic this weekend is POKER! We will evaluated the First Poker Player ( ) his team mates, allies, opponents, etc. The theme song is obvious, but maybe hamerfan can find some we aren't so familiar with. Something from Tommy, maybe? (don't ask me, I don't know it at all).

Because this global economy is a big bluff, combined with a shell game of staggering complexity, games of chance seem extremely appropriate. First one to make BINGO wins!

Demeter

[DemReadingDU]

4. Global shares drop as German, UK data fails to lift China cloud

7/25/13 Global shares drop as German, UK data fails to lift China cloud

World shares fell on Thursday as confirmation that Europe is slowly dragging itself out of recession failed to offset worries about China's slowdown and its impact on corporate earnings.

Data showing better German business morale and the British economy gathering pace came in line with expectations and still pointed to only modest growth ahead, so did little to spark fresh demand from investors worried about developments in Asia.

"We don't expect a strong recovery in Europe," said Philippe Gudin de Vallerin, head of European economics research at Barclays. "Risks are also coming from China where we have seen further evidence of its economy slowing."


U.S. stocks looked set to open lower on Wall Street after a difficult session on Wednesday, when the benchmark S&P 500 logged its first back-to-back declines in a month.

more...
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/asian-stocks-retreat-7-wk-042043973.html

[xchrom]

5. Spain's jobless rate falls for first time in two years

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23447087

Spain's unemployment rate has fallen for the first time in two years, according to official figures.

The rate stood at 26.3% in the second quarter of the year, down from a record 27.2% in the first quarter.

A strong tourist season was credited with boosting employment. Tourism accounts for about 10% of Spanish GDP.

The news came a day after the Spanish central bank forecast that the economy will return to growth before the end of the year.

[Hotler]

7. I can't figure out why the 30 year bond line ......

won't stay lined up with the 10 year bond in SMW post. I haven't change anything from the days before.

[DemReadingDU]

8. Looks ok to me

[Demeter]

14. It's perfect on my screen

(you have a computer glitch?)

[Hotler]

25. Me! n/t

[Tansy_Gold]

26. Looks fine to me!

[xchrom]

9. IMF calls for further action to solve eurozone crisis

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23451099


The International Monetary Fund has called for more action to end the crisis in the eurozone.

The IMF wants greater progress made on repairing the balance sheets of banks, so that lending can be kick-started.

It also said that further cuts to interest rates by the European Central Bank may be necessary to boost growth.

The IMF praised eurozone authorities for taking action to stabilise financial markets, which reduced the risk of a break-up of the euro.

[Demeter]

15. If they want to end the Eurozone crisis, They must take two steps:

1. Stop treating the banks as if they were victims. Treat them as the criminal enterprises they are.

2. End the euro. It's a stupid, foolish idea as presently constituted. If there were a solution, somebody would have mentioned it by now. I don't think there's any way to fix its myriad flaws. Admit failure and try something that works.

[xchrom]

10. South Korea economic growth beats forecasts

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23429694

South Korea's economy grew by more than forecast in the April to June period, boosted by a jump in domestic consumption and government spending.

Growth was 1.1% higher in the quarter than in previous three months, the Bank of Korea's advanced estimates showed.

Compared with the same period last year, the economy expanded by 2.3%, above the 2% forecast by most analysts.

South Korea has unveiled a series of stimulus moves over the past few months in an attempt to spur economic growth.

[xchrom]

11. Oil Tycoon: America's Shale Oil Boom Is 'Not Going To Be As Massive As People Think'

http://www.businessinsider.com/eogs-mark-papa-in-forbes-on-shale-2013-7

EOG is actually an Enron spinoff, but Papa has left the former in the dust, guiding EOG to a +650% return over the past decade.

But it turns out he's sort of skeptic on the American oil boom, mostly because the recovery rates in unconventional oil plays — however big they are in size — pale in comparison to conventional ones.

Here's the key passage:

...it’s surprising to hear him say that the Great American Oil Boom, which he helped create, is “not going to be as massive as people think."

“The chances of the U.S. being independent in oil are very slim,” he says.



Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/eogs-mark-papa-in-forbes-on-shale-2013-7#ixzz2a4DKCIN9

[Hotler]

27. But! But! But! But!......

What about "Drill baby, drill." and open up those off-shore leases? and, and oh never mind.

[xchrom]

12. SAC Capital Has Been Indicted By A Federal Grand Jury

http://www.businessinsider.com/sac-capital-indicted-2013-7

Hedge fund billionaire Steve Cohen's $14 billion SAC Capital Advisors has been indicted by a federal grand jury in New York on criminal charges of insider trading, Bloomberg News reports.
SAC has been charged with four counts of securities fraud and one count of wire fraud, according to the federal indictment, which has been posted by Reuters.

SAC subsidiaries CR Intrinsic and Sigma Capital were both charged in the indictment.

U.S. prosecutors allege that SAC engaged in the insider trading scheme from 1999 until 2010.



Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/sac-capital-indicted-2013-7#ixzz2a4DtLc5c

[Demeter]

16. New York goes where Holder Cringes

I'm surprised they didn't RIF the entire Justice Dept. for all the good it does. Or at least, fire Holder.

[Roland99]

17. Hidee ho SMW denizens

I find it quite humorous that the recent run-up in the price of oil coincided w/my 3-week road trip out west. Now that we got home yesterday, prices are dropping

Can't complain.

Got nearly 26mpg in our minivan for the entire nearly 6,000 mile trip.

Enjoyed the San Antonio (Alamo, Schlitterbahn), Tucson, Grand Canyon (via railway), Vegas, Disneyland, more Vegas (visiting family and friends), then a looong ride home!

Back to traveling via plane next week for work. I swear, I've literally spent about a week in my own bed since the 1st of June!

Hope things are well w/everyone!

[Demeter]

20. Hey, Roland!

Thanks for checking in...we missed you! Get some sleep now, you hear?

(Who cuts your grass?)

[Roland99]

21. Think I'm finally back on FL time!

We have someone to cut the grass during the summer months, usually. He does a decent job and is rather inexpensive. Been raining almost every day so it grows quickly and is a pain to mow...this stuff isn't grass...it's a weed!

[Fuddnik]

22. Tell me about it.

I mowed a week ago, and the back yard looks like it hasn't been mowed all year.

[Roland99]

23. Ayup...

[mahatmakanejeeves]

24. ETA News Release: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report (07/25/2013)

http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/eta20131472.htm

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending July 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 343,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 336,000. The 4-week moving average was 345,250, a decrease of 1,250 from the previous week's revised average of 346,500.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.3 percent for the week ending July 13, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending July 13 was 2,997,000, a decrease of 119,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,116,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,023,250, an increase of 2,500 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,020,750.

UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 338,140 in the week ending July 20, a decrease of 71,879 from the previous week. There were 340,780 initial claims in the comparable week in 2012.
....

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending July 13 were in Georgia (+7,027), California (+6,799), Texas (+6,001), Alabama (+5,846), and Tennessee (+3,820), while the largest decreases were in Michigan (-11,969), New York (-4,743), New Jersey (-4,477), Ohio (-2,501), and Kentucky (-2,163).