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STOCK MARKET WATCH -- Monday, 19 August 2013
[font size=3]STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday, 19 August 2013[font color=black][/font]
SMW for 16 August 2013
AT THE CLOSING BELL ON 16 August 2013
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Dow Jones 15,081.47 -30.72 (-0.20%)
S&P 500 1,655.83 -5.49 (-0.33%)
Nasdaq 3,602.78 -3.34 (-0.09%)
[font color=green]10 Year 2.49% -0.03 (-1.19%)
30 Year 3.58% -0.03 (-0.83%)[font color=black]
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[font size=2]Market Conditions During Trading Hours[/font]
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[font size=2]Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold[center]
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Market Data and News:[/font][/font]
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Economic Calendar
Marketwatch Data
Bloomberg Economic News
Yahoo Finance
Google Finance
Bank Tracker
Credit Union Tracker
Daily Job Cuts
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Economic Blogs:[/font][/font]
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The Big Picture
Financial Sense
Calculated Risk
Naked Capitalism
Credit Writedowns
Brad DeLong
Bonddad
Atrios
goldmansachs666
The Stand-Up Economist
The Automatic Earth
Wall Street on Parade
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Essential Reading:[/font][/font]
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Matt Taibi: Secret and Lies of the Bailout
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Government Issues:[/font][/font]
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LegitGov
Open Government
Earmark Database
USA spending.gov
[/center][font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Videos:[/font][/font]
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Charlie Rose talks with Roubini
Charlie Rose talks with Krugman
William Black: This Economic Disaster
Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn
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[font color=red]Partial List of Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 [/font][font color=red]
2/2/12 David Higgs and Salmaan Siddiqui, Credit Suisse, plead guilty to conspiracy involving valuation of MBS
3/6/12 Allen Stanford, former Caribbean billionaire and general schmuck, convicted on 13 of 14 counts in $2.2B Ponzi scheme, faces 20+ years in prison
6/4/12 Matthew Kluger, lawyer, sentenced to 12 years in prison, along with co-conspirator stock trader Garrett Bauer (9 years) and co-conspirator Kenneth Robinson (not yet sentenced) for 17 year insider trading scheme.
6/14/12 Allen Stanford sentenced to 110 years without parole.
6/15/12 Rajat Gupta, former Goldman Sachs director, found guilty of insider trading. Could face a decade in prison when sentenced later this year.
6/22/12 Timothy S. Durham, 49, former CEO of Fair Financial Company, convicted of one count conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, 10 counts of wire fraud, and one count of securities fraud.
6/22/12 James F. Cochran, 56, former chairman of the board of Fair, convicted of one count of conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, one count of securities fraud, and six counts of wire fraud.
6/22/12 Rick D. Snow, 48, former CFO of Fair, convicted of one count of conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, one count of securities fraud, and three counts of wire fraud.
7/13/12 Russell Wassendorf Sr., CEO of collapsed brokerage firm Peregrine Financial Group Inc. arrested and charged with lying to regulators after admitting to authorities he embezzled "millions of dollars" and forged bank statements for "nearly twenty years."
8/22/12 Doug Whitman, Whitman Capital LLC hedge fund founder, convicted of insider trading following a trial in which he spent more than two days on the stand telling jurors he was innocent
10/26/12 UPDATE: Former Goldman Sachs director Rajat Gupta sentenced to two years in federal prison. He will, of course, appeal. . .
11/20/12 Hedge fund manager Matthew Martoma charged with insider trading at SAC Capital Advisors, and prosecutors are looking at Martoma's boss, Steven Cohen, for possible involvement.
02/14/13 Gilbert Lopez, former chief accounting officer of Stanford Financial Group, and former controller Mark Kuhrt sentenced to 20 yrs in prison for their roles in Allen Sanford's $7.2 billion Ponzi scheme.
03/29/13 Michael Sternberg, portfolio mgr at SAC Capital, arrested in NYC, charged with conspiracy and securities fraud. Pled not guilty and freed on $3m bail.
04/04/13 Matthew Marshall Taylor,fmr Goldman Sachs trader arrested, charged by CFTC w/defrauding his employer on $8BN futures bet "by intentionally concealing the true huge size, as well as the risk and potential profits or losses associated."
04/04/13 Matthew Taylor admits guilt, makes plea bargain. Sentencing set for 26 June; faces up to 20 years in prison but will likely only see 3-4 years. Says, "I am truly sorry."
04/11/13 Ex-KPMG LLP partner Scott London charged by federal prosecutors w/passing inside tips to a friend in exchange for cash, jewelry, and concert tickets; expected to plead guilty in May.
08/01/13 Fabrice Tourré convicted on six counts of security fraud, including "aiding and abetting" his former employer, Goldman Sachs
08/14/13 Javier Martin-Artajo and Julien Grout charged with wire fraud, falsifying records, and conspiracy in connection with JP Morgan's "London Whale" trade.
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[font size=3][font color=red]This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.[/font][/font][/font color=red][font color=black]
51 replies
= new reply since forum marked as read
= new reply since forum marked as read
Just stay out of the swamp and you won't get sucked into the muck!
Do Not Put Your Hand In The Crazy
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-19/obama-to-meet-financial-regulators-on-dodd-frank-implementation.html
President Barack Obama is meeting today with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and other financial regulators for an update on implementation of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act.
The closed-door meeting at the White House, listed at 2:15 p.m. on the president’s schedule, also will include Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew, the Comptroller of the Currency, the director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the acting director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, and the chairmen of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, National Credit Union Administration, and Securities and Exchange Commission.
The Dodd-Frank Act, signed into law by Obama in July 2010, expanded the central bank’s power to oversee the largest financial institutions and gave regulators new tools aimed at preventing a repeat of the 2007-2009 financial crisis.
***must be the bi-annual meeting of the Mutual Admiration Society.
President Barack Obama is meeting today with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and other financial regulators for an update on implementation of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act.
The closed-door meeting at the White House, listed at 2:15 p.m. on the president’s schedule, also will include Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew, the Comptroller of the Currency, the director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the acting director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, and the chairmen of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, National Credit Union Administration, and Securities and Exchange Commission.
The Dodd-Frank Act, signed into law by Obama in July 2010, expanded the central bank’s power to oversee the largest financial institutions and gave regulators new tools aimed at preventing a repeat of the 2007-2009 financial crisis.
***must be the bi-annual meeting of the Mutual Admiration Society.
http://www.businessinsider.com/average-annual-hours-worked-for-americans-vs-the-rest-of-the-world-2013-8
Check Out How Much The Average American Works Each Year Compared To The French, The Germans, And The Koreans
How much work does the average American do each year compared to workers elsewhere in the world?
The economics website FRED just added a bunch of new economic data which makes this question very easy to examine.
As you can see, the average full-time American employee works right around 1,700 hours per year.
The first question you might have is: How does this compare to France, which famously has shorter work weeks, and tons of vacation time?
Good question. Turns out the French used to work way more than the Americans, but then the French really cut back, and now work way less. So the clichés about how much the French work are true.
***more at link
Check Out How Much The Average American Works Each Year Compared To The French, The Germans, And The Koreans
How much work does the average American do each year compared to workers elsewhere in the world?
The economics website FRED just added a bunch of new economic data which makes this question very easy to examine.
As you can see, the average full-time American employee works right around 1,700 hours per year.
The first question you might have is: How does this compare to France, which famously has shorter work weeks, and tons of vacation time?
Good question. Turns out the French used to work way more than the Americans, but then the French really cut back, and now work way less. So the clichés about how much the French work are true.
***more at link
http://angrybearblog.com/2013/08/what-paul-krugman-is-getting-wrong.html
Paul Krugman posted an article today… “What Janet Yellen — And Everyone Else — Got Wrong“. But there is something he is getting wrong too, or at least, doesn’t seem to be aware he is getting it wrong.
He talks about the economic recovery having been so sluggish. And he offers this explanation…
There is a deeper cause that he is not mentioning. What appears to be low demand is actually the symptom of lower labor share muting the money multiplier effect of investment. Paul Krugman knows that the “financial markets are operating more or less normally again”, as he says above. Yet, he seems unaware of how lowering labor share will lower the equilibrium level of real GDP, thus muting the ability of investment to expand through the economy.
I argue that the explanation has to do with labor share falling 5% since the crisis. I provided a simple model yesterday showing the dynamic of how a lower labor share leads to a lower equilibrium level of GDP… “Labor share affects the potential of investment to raise GDP“. The lower equilibrium level of real GDP creates a condition where investment returns to business with a smaller money multiplier. What we see then is sluggishness in the economy even though the financial markets are working fine.
Apart from lower labor share undermining the ability to pay down the overhang of debt, it also causes an “apparently” unexpected dampening effect upon monetary policy. Banks can loan money, but the economic returns on the loans are muted by a low labor share. The dynamics of low labor share are too obvious to overlook. On twitter, Frances Coppola responded to my article yesterday by saying, “that’s a brilliant post. Explains so much that I intuitively knew but hadn’t actually modeled.”
I think, Paul Krugman is simply unaware of the effect that the current lower labor share is having. But once he is aware of it, I have faith he won’t get it wrong.
Labor share affects the potential of investment to raise GDP Edward Lambert
The circular flow is a model used to show how money and products move through an economy. I am going to use a simplified version to show the effect of labor share of income on GDP. Many people think that labor income is not quantitatively different than capital income. I will show that the equilibrium level of GDP is affected by a change in labor share of income. This would have important implications for monetary policy and expectations of GDP potential.
Basic Equilibrium
Let’s start out with a basic model. It will only involve labor, owners of capital, firms and a financial sector. The only injection into the circular flow will be investment. The only leakage from the circular flow will be savings. The model does not include the government sector nor imports/exports.
http://effectivedemand.typepad.com/.a/6a017d42232dda970c01901ea90bc5970b-800wi
LENGTHY TUTORIAL CONTINUES AT LINK
http://angrybearblog.com/2013/08/labor-share-affects-the-potential-of-investment-to-raise-gdp.html
AND FOR COMPLETENESS, HERE'S KRUGMAN:
What Janet Yellen — And Everyone Else — Got Wrong
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/08/08/what-janet-yellen-and-everyone-else-got-wrong/?_r=0#postComment
Don’t worry, this isn’t another entry in the Larry/Janet debate, where I’ve said my piece. Instead, it’s prompted by a nice but I think incomplete analysis by Matt O’Brien of the reasons Janet Yellen underestimated the damage a bursting housing bubble would do; analyzing that issue, it seems to me, is a good way to get at the broader question of why recovery has been so sluggish. The starting point is that we had a monstrous housing bubble, and Janet Yellen recognized it in real time. Here’s housing prices deflated by consumer prices:
It’s important to notice that just being willing to see the obvious here puts Janet Yellen way ahead of a lot of people who still presume to give us advice on the economy. But Yellen initially thought the damage from a bursting bubble could be contained, although she was starting to worry by 2007. Why was she wrong? Matt emphasizes the financial crisis — the way the bursting bubble created a run on the shadow banking system. And that’s clearly key to understanding the severity of the 2007-9 slump. However, financial stress peaked in early 2009, then fell sharply:
Unfortunately, the economy didn’t come roaring back. Why? The best explanation, I think, lies in the debt overhang. For the most part, even those who correctly diagnosed a housing bubble failed to notice or at least to acknowledge the importance of the sharp rise in household debt that accompanied the bubble:
And I would argue that this debt overhang has held back spending even though financial markets are operating more or less normally again. Finally, nobody really anticipated the disastrous response of policy, above all the squeeze on public spending at a time when we needed more government spending to sustain the economy until private balance sheets were repaired. Here’s total (all levels) government spending deflated by the implicit GDP deflator (an overall price index), comparing the last recession and aftermath with the Bush years; if spending had grown this time the way it did in the past, unemployment would probably be close to 6 percent:
In short, getting the bubble right, while no small thing, wasn’t enough; Yellen (and many other people, myself included) underestimated the fragility of the financial system, but also the importance of household debt, and, above all, the foolishness of policymakers.
Paul Krugman posted an article today… “What Janet Yellen — And Everyone Else — Got Wrong“. But there is something he is getting wrong too, or at least, doesn’t seem to be aware he is getting it wrong.
He talks about the economic recovery having been so sluggish. And he offers this explanation…
“The best explanation, I think, lies in the debt overhang… And I would argue that this debt overhang has held back spending even though financial markets are operating more or less normally again.”
There is a deeper cause that he is not mentioning. What appears to be low demand is actually the symptom of lower labor share muting the money multiplier effect of investment. Paul Krugman knows that the “financial markets are operating more or less normally again”, as he says above. Yet, he seems unaware of how lowering labor share will lower the equilibrium level of real GDP, thus muting the ability of investment to expand through the economy.
I argue that the explanation has to do with labor share falling 5% since the crisis. I provided a simple model yesterday showing the dynamic of how a lower labor share leads to a lower equilibrium level of GDP… “Labor share affects the potential of investment to raise GDP“. The lower equilibrium level of real GDP creates a condition where investment returns to business with a smaller money multiplier. What we see then is sluggishness in the economy even though the financial markets are working fine.
Apart from lower labor share undermining the ability to pay down the overhang of debt, it also causes an “apparently” unexpected dampening effect upon monetary policy. Banks can loan money, but the economic returns on the loans are muted by a low labor share. The dynamics of low labor share are too obvious to overlook. On twitter, Frances Coppola responded to my article yesterday by saying, “that’s a brilliant post. Explains so much that I intuitively knew but hadn’t actually modeled.”
I think, Paul Krugman is simply unaware of the effect that the current lower labor share is having. But once he is aware of it, I have faith he won’t get it wrong.
Labor share affects the potential of investment to raise GDP Edward Lambert
The circular flow is a model used to show how money and products move through an economy. I am going to use a simplified version to show the effect of labor share of income on GDP. Many people think that labor income is not quantitatively different than capital income. I will show that the equilibrium level of GDP is affected by a change in labor share of income. This would have important implications for monetary policy and expectations of GDP potential.
Basic Equilibrium
Let’s start out with a basic model. It will only involve labor, owners of capital, firms and a financial sector. The only injection into the circular flow will be investment. The only leakage from the circular flow will be savings. The model does not include the government sector nor imports/exports.
http://effectivedemand.typepad.com/.a/6a017d42232dda970c01901ea90bc5970b-800wi
LENGTHY TUTORIAL CONTINUES AT LINK
http://angrybearblog.com/2013/08/labor-share-affects-the-potential-of-investment-to-raise-gdp.html
AND FOR COMPLETENESS, HERE'S KRUGMAN:
What Janet Yellen — And Everyone Else — Got Wrong
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/08/08/what-janet-yellen-and-everyone-else-got-wrong/?_r=0#postComment
Don’t worry, this isn’t another entry in the Larry/Janet debate, where I’ve said my piece. Instead, it’s prompted by a nice but I think incomplete analysis by Matt O’Brien of the reasons Janet Yellen underestimated the damage a bursting housing bubble would do; analyzing that issue, it seems to me, is a good way to get at the broader question of why recovery has been so sluggish. The starting point is that we had a monstrous housing bubble, and Janet Yellen recognized it in real time. Here’s housing prices deflated by consumer prices:
It’s important to notice that just being willing to see the obvious here puts Janet Yellen way ahead of a lot of people who still presume to give us advice on the economy. But Yellen initially thought the damage from a bursting bubble could be contained, although she was starting to worry by 2007. Why was she wrong? Matt emphasizes the financial crisis — the way the bursting bubble created a run on the shadow banking system. And that’s clearly key to understanding the severity of the 2007-9 slump. However, financial stress peaked in early 2009, then fell sharply:
Unfortunately, the economy didn’t come roaring back. Why? The best explanation, I think, lies in the debt overhang. For the most part, even those who correctly diagnosed a housing bubble failed to notice or at least to acknowledge the importance of the sharp rise in household debt that accompanied the bubble:
And I would argue that this debt overhang has held back spending even though financial markets are operating more or less normally again. Finally, nobody really anticipated the disastrous response of policy, above all the squeeze on public spending at a time when we needed more government spending to sustain the economy until private balance sheets were repaired. Here’s total (all levels) government spending deflated by the implicit GDP deflator (an overall price index), comparing the last recession and aftermath with the Bush years; if spending had grown this time the way it did in the past, unemployment would probably be close to 6 percent:
In short, getting the bubble right, while no small thing, wasn’t enough; Yellen (and many other people, myself included) underestimated the fragility of the financial system, but also the importance of household debt, and, above all, the foolishness of policymakers.
http://www.businessinsider.com/india-10-year-yield-chart-2013-8
The big story today is the weakness in emerging markets, particularly Indonesia, Thailand, and India, which has been in a special category of pain this year.
One pain point for emerging markets has been the big whoosh of foreign money away from these markets. As the economy has improved in the US (and Europe) and interest rates have gone up, that's lessened demand for emerging market assets, including government debt.
To see this in incredibly stark form, one needs only look at the yield on Indian 10-year bonds.
Check out the surge in yields since the spring.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/india-10-year-yield-chart-2013-8#ixzz2cQJ225dd
***some one some where is fucking the BRICS?
The big story today is the weakness in emerging markets, particularly Indonesia, Thailand, and India, which has been in a special category of pain this year.
One pain point for emerging markets has been the big whoosh of foreign money away from these markets. As the economy has improved in the US (and Europe) and interest rates have gone up, that's lessened demand for emerging market assets, including government debt.
To see this in incredibly stark form, one needs only look at the yield on Indian 10-year bonds.
Check out the surge in yields since the spring.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/india-10-year-yield-chart-2013-8#ixzz2cQJ225dd
***some one some where is fucking the BRICS?
http://www.eonline.com/news/444912/inside-sean-parker-s-4-5-million-lord-of-the-rings-wedding-see-the-pic
Hollywood has had some pretty lavish nuptials this year, but Sean Parker and Alexandra Lenas' over-the-top nuptials may take the, well, wedding cake.
For starters, the Big Sur ceremony, which took place on June 1, cost a whopping $4.5 million! And that's not including the $2.5 million fine from the California Coastal Commission.
But the jaw-dropping price isn't what really lands the forest celebration in the celebrity wedding hall of fame. From a 9-foot-tall wedding cake to the flower-adorned redwood trees, the Lord of the Rings theme was done to a level you have to see to believe...
SEE ALSO: http://www.vanityfair.com/style/2013/09/photos-sean-parker-wedding
Hollywood has had some pretty lavish nuptials this year, but Sean Parker and Alexandra Lenas' over-the-top nuptials may take the, well, wedding cake.
For starters, the Big Sur ceremony, which took place on June 1, cost a whopping $4.5 million! And that's not including the $2.5 million fine from the California Coastal Commission.
But the jaw-dropping price isn't what really lands the forest celebration in the celebrity wedding hall of fame. From a 9-foot-tall wedding cake to the flower-adorned redwood trees, the Lord of the Rings theme was done to a level you have to see to believe...
SEE ALSO: http://www.vanityfair.com/style/2013/09/photos-sean-parker-wedding
