October payroll employment increases (+204,000); unemployment rate changes little (7.3%)

[mahatmakanejeeves]

I got to work too late to post in LBN, so I'll put the thread here.

October payroll employment increases (+204,000); unemployment rate changes little (7.3%)
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Read More: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- OCTOBER 2013


Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 204,000 in October, and the
unemployment rate was little changed at 7.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of
Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in leisure and
hospitality, retail trade, professional and technical services,
manufacturing, and health care.

Household Survey Data

Both the number of unemployed persons, at 11.3 million, and the
unemployment rate, at 7.3 percent, changed little in October. Among
the unemployed, however, the number who reported being on temporary
layoff increased by 448,000. This figure includes furloughed federal
employees who were classified as unemployed on temporary layoff under
the definitions used in the household survey. (Estimates of the
unemployed by reason, such as temporary layoff and job leavers, do not
sum to the official seasonally adjusted measure of total unemployed
because they are independently seasonally adjusted.) For more
information on the classification of workers affected by the federal
government shutdown, see the box note. (See tables A-1 and A-11.)
....

In October, 2.3 million persons were marginally attached to the labor
force, little changed from 2.4 million a year earlier. (The data are
not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor
force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job
sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed
because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the
survey. (See table A-16.)

Among the marginally attached, there were 815,000 discouraged workers
in October, essentially unchanged from a year earlier. (The data are
not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not
currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available
for them. The remaining 1.5 million persons marginally attached to the
labor force in October had not searched for work for reasons such as
school attendance or family responsibilities. (See table A-16.)

== == == ==

Good morning, Freepers and DUers alike. I especially welcome viewers from across the aisle. You're paying for this information too, so you ought to see this as much as anyone. Please, everyone, put aside your differences long enough to digest the information. After that, you can engage in your usual donnybrook.

If you don't have the time to study the report thoroughly, here is the news in a nutshell:

Commissioner's Statement on The Employment Situation
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/jec.nr0.htm

== == == == ==

The large print giveth, and the fine print taketh away.

(I wish we had the option of Fraktur typeface. It would be ideal there.)

A DU'er pointed out several months ago that, if I'm going to post the link to the press release, I should include the link to all the tables that provide additional ways of examining the data. Specifically, I should post a link to "Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization." Table A-15 includes those who are not considered unemployed, on the grounds that they have become discouraged about the prospects of finding a job and have given up looking. Here are those links.

Employment Situation

Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization

What is important about these statistics is not so much this month’s number, but the trend. So let’s look at some earlier numbers.

ADP, for employment in September 2013:

{Announced Two Weeks Ago}: ADP National Employment Report Shows 166,000 Jobs Added in September
http://www.democraticunderground.com/111642242

ADP, for employment in July 2013:

U.S. Economy Added 200,000 Private-Sector Jobs in July, According to ADP National Employment Report
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014553108

So how many jobs must be created every month to have an effect on the unemployment rate? There's an app for that.

http://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/calculator/index.cfm
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Jobs Calculator™

Monthly Employment Reports

From the February 10, 2011, "DOL Newsletter":

Take Three

Secretary Solis answers three questions about how the Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates unemployment rates.

How does BLS determine the unemployment rate and the number of jobs that were added each month?

BLS uses two different surveys to get these numbers. The "household survey," or Current Population Survey (CPS), involves asking people, from about 60,000 households, a series of questions to assess each person in the household's activities including work and searching for work. Their responses give us the unemployment rate. The "establishment survey," or Current Employment Statistics (CES), surveys 140,000 employers about how many people they have on their payrolls. These results determine the number of jobs being added or lost.