STOCK MARKET WATCH -- Thursday, 16 October 2014

[Tansy_Gold]

[font size=3]STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday, 16 October 2014[font color=black][/font]

SMW for 15 October 2014

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON 15 October 2014
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Dow Jones 16,141.74 -173.45 (-1.06%)
S&P 500 1,862.49 -15.21 (-0.81%)
Nasdaq 4,215.32 -11.85 (-0.28%)


[font color=red]10 Year 2.13% +0.08 (3.90%)
30 Year 2.92% +0.08 (2.82%) [font color=black]


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[font size=2]Market Conditions During Trading Hours[/font]
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(click on link for latest updates)
http://tools.investing.com/market_quotes.php?
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[font size=2]Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold[center]

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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Market Data and News:[/font][/font]
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Economic Calendar
Marketwatch Data
Bloomberg Economic News
Yahoo Finance
Google Finance
Bank Tracker
Credit Union Tracker
Daily Job Cuts
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Economic Blogs:[/font][/font]
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The Big Picture
Financial Sense
Calculated Risk
Naked Capitalism
Credit Writedowns
Brad DeLong
Bonddad
Atrios
goldmansachs666
The Stand-Up Economist
The Automatic Earth
Wall Street on Parade
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Essential Reading:[/font][/font]
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Matt Taibi: Secret and Lies of the Bailout


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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Government Issues:[/font][/font]
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LegitGov
Open Government
Earmark Database
USA spending.gov
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Videos:[/font][/font]
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Charlie Rose talks with Roubini
Charlie Rose talks with Krugman
William Black: This Economic Disaster
Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn
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[font color=red]Partial List of Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 [/font][font color=red]
2/2/12 David Higgs and Salmaan Siddiqui, Credit Suisse, plead guilty to conspiracy involving valuation of MBS
3/6/12 Allen Stanford, former Caribbean billionaire and general schmuck, convicted on 13 of 14 counts in $2.2B Ponzi scheme, faces 20+ years in prison
6/4/12 Matthew Kluger, lawyer, sentenced to 12 years in prison, along with co-conspirator stock trader Garrett Bauer (9 years) and co-conspirator Kenneth Robinson (not yet sentenced) for 17 year insider trading scheme.
6/14/12 Allen Stanford sentenced to 110 years without parole.
6/15/12 Rajat Gupta, former Goldman Sachs director, found guilty of insider trading. Could face a decade in prison when sentenced later this year.
6/22/12 Timothy S. Durham, 49, former CEO of Fair Financial Company, convicted of one count conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, 10 counts of wire fraud, and one count of securities fraud.
6/22/12 James F. Cochran, 56, former chairman of the board of Fair, convicted of one count of conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, one count of securities fraud, and six counts of wire fraud.
6/22/12 Rick D. Snow, 48, former CFO of Fair, convicted of one count of conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, one count of securities fraud, and three counts of wire fraud.
7/13/12 Russell Wassendorf Sr., CEO of collapsed brokerage firm Peregrine Financial Group Inc. arrested and charged with lying to regulators after admitting to authorities he embezzled "millions of dollars" and forged bank statements for "nearly twenty years."
8/22/12 Doug Whitman, Whitman Capital LLC hedge fund founder, convicted of insider trading following a trial in which he spent more than two days on the stand telling jurors he was innocent
10/26/12 UPDATE: Former Goldman Sachs director Rajat Gupta sentenced to two years in federal prison. He will, of course, appeal. . .
11/20/12 Hedge fund manager Matthew Martoma charged with insider trading at SAC Capital Advisors, and prosecutors are looking at Martoma's boss, Steven Cohen, for possible involvement.
02/14/13 Gilbert Lopez, former chief accounting officer of Stanford Financial Group, and former controller Mark Kuhrt sentenced to 20 yrs in prison for their roles in Allen Sanford's $7.2 billion Ponzi scheme.
03/29/13 Michael Sternberg, portfolio mgr at SAC Capital, arrested in NYC, charged with conspiracy and securities fraud. Pled not guilty and freed on $3m bail.
04/04/13 Matthew Marshall Taylor,fmr Goldman Sachs trader arrested, charged by CFTC w/defrauding his employer on $8BN futures bet "by intentionally concealing the true huge size, as well as the risk and potential profits or losses associated."
04/04/13 Matthew Taylor admits guilt, makes plea bargain. Sentencing set for 26 June; faces up to 20 years in prison but will likely only see 3-4 years. Says, "I am truly sorry."
04/11/13 Ex-KPMG LLP partner Scott London charged by federal prosecutors w/passing inside tips to a friend in exchange for cash, jewelry, and concert tickets; expected to plead guilty in May.
08/01/13 Fabrice Tourré convicted on six counts of security fraud, including "aiding and abetting" his former employer, Goldman Sachs
08/14/13 Javier Martin-Artajo and Julien Grout charged with wire fraud, falsifying records, and conspiracy in connection with JP Morgan's "London Whale" trade.
08/19/13 Phillip A. Falcone, manager of hedge fund Harbinger Capital Partners, agrees to admit to "wrongdoing" in market manipulation. Will banned from securities industry for 5 years and pay $18MM in disgorgement and fines.
09/16/13 Javier Martin-Artajo and Julien Grout officially indicted on charges associated with "London Whale" trade.
02/06/14 Matthew Martoma convicted of insider trading while at hedge fund SAC (Stephen A. Cohen) Capital Advisors. Expected sentence 7-10 years.
03/24/14 Annette Bongiorno, Bernard Madoff's secretary; Daniel Bonventre, director of operations for investments; JoAnn Crupi, an account manager; and Jerome O'Hara and George Perez, both computer programmers convicted of conspiracy to defraud clients, securities fraud, and falsifying the books and records.
05/19/14 Credit Suisse, which has an investment bank branch in NYC, agrees to plead guilty and pay appx. $2.6 billion penalties for helping wealthy Americans hide wealth and avoid taxes.
09/08/14 Matthew Martoma, convicted SAC trader, sentenced to 9 years in prison plus forfeiture of $9.3 million, including home and bank accounts







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[font size=3][font color=red]This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.[/font][/font][/font color=red][font color=black]

[littlemissmartypants]

1. Thank you. nt

[Demeter]

2. Revenge of the Unforgiven: How Righteousness Killed the World Economy PAUL KRUGMAN

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/13/opinion/paul-krugman-how-righteousness-killed-the-world-economy.html?_r=1

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: The world economy appears to be stumbling. For a while, things seemed to be looking up, and there was talk about green shoots of recovery. But now growth is stalling, and the specter of deflation looms...If this story sounds familiar, it should; it has played out repeatedly since 2008. As in previous episodes, the worst news is coming from Europe, but this time there is also a clear slowdown in emerging markets — and there are even warning signs in the United States, despite pretty good job growth at the moment. Why does this keep happening? After all, the events that brought on the Great Recession — the housing bust, the banking crisis — took place a long time ago. Why can’t we escape their legacy?

The proximate answer lies in a series of policy mistakes: Austerity when economies needed stimulus, paranoia about inflation when the real risk is deflation, and so on. But why do governments keep making these mistakes? In particular, why do they keep making the same mistakes, year after year? The answer, I’d suggest, is an excess of virtue. Righteousness is killing the world economy. What, after all, is our fundamental economic problem? A simplified but broadly correct account of what went wrong goes like this: In the years leading up to the Great Recession, we had an explosion of credit (mainly to the private sector). Old notions of prudence, for both lenders and borrowers, were cast aside; debt levels that would once have been considered deeply unsound became the norm. Then the music stopped, the money stopped flowing, and everyone began trying to “deleverage,” to reduce the level of debt. For each individual, this was prudent. But my spending is your income and your spending is my income, so when everyone tries to pay down debt at the same time, you get a depressed economy.

So what can be done? Historically, the solution to high levels of debt has often involved writing off and forgiving much of that debt. Sometimes this happens explicitly: In the 1930s F.D.R. helped borrowers refinance with much cheaper mortgages, while in this crisis Iceland is outright canceling a significant part of the debt households ran up during the bubble years. More often, debt relief takes place implicitly, through “financial repression”: government policies hold interest rates down, while inflation erodes the real value of debt. What’s striking about the past few years, however, is how little debt relief has actually taken place. Yes, there’s Iceland — but it’s tiny. Yes, Greek creditors took a significant “haircut” — but Greece is still a small player (and still hopelessly in debt). In major economies, very few debtors have received a break. And far from being inflated away, the burden of debt has been aggravated by falling inflation, which is running well below target in America and near zero in Europe.

Why are debtors receiving so little relief? As I said, it’s about righteousness — the sense that any kind of debt forgiveness would involve rewarding bad behavior. In America, the famous Rick Santelli rant that gave birth to the Tea Party wasn’t about taxes or spending — it was a furious denunciation of proposals to help troubled homeowners. In Europe, austerity policies have been driven less by economic analysis than by Germany’s moral indignation over the notion that irresponsible borrowers might not face the full consequences of their actions. So the policy response to a crisis of excessive debt has, in effect, been a demand that debtors pay off their debts in full. What does history say about that strategy? That’s easy: It doesn’t work. Whatever progress debtors make through suffering and saving is more than offset through depression and deflation. That is, for example, what happened to Britain after World War I, when it tried to pay off its debt with huge budget surpluses while returning to the gold standard: Despite years of sacrifice, it made almost no progress in bringing down the ratio of debt to G.D.P. And that’s what is happening now. A recent comprehensive report on debt is titled “Deleveraging, what deleveraging?”; despite private cutbacks and public austerity, debt levels are rising thanks to poor economic performance. And we are arguably no closer to escaping our debt trap than we were five years ago. But it has been very hard to get either the policy elite or the public to understand that sometimes debt relief is in everyone’s interest. Instead, the response to poor economic performance has essentially been that the beatings will continue until morale improves.

Maybe, just maybe, bad news — say, a recession in Germany — will finally bring an end to this destructive reign of virtue. But don’t count on it.

[xchrom]

3. MARKETS GETTING CRUSHED AGAIN

http://www.businessinsider.com/europe-october-16-2014-10

Greek stocks, which got totally destroyed Wednesday, are down another 2% Thursday.

Italian stocks are down 3.6% right now, on top of the 4% decline Wednesday.

Germany is down over 1%.

There's also a bit of a freak-out on the bond side of things, with Greek 10-year interest rates surging to well over 8%.

The German 10-year yield has hit a record low of 0.718% as people rush to safety.

Generally, this feels VERY much like the bad old days of the eurozone crisis.

Oil is weak again, hanging just above $80/barrel.

US futures are now down over 1% across the board.



Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/europe-october-16-2014-10#ixzz3GJ6OOGPi

[xchrom]

4. OIL CRASHES BELOW $80

http://www.businessinsider.com/oil-october-16-2014-10

Oil just keeps collapsing.

In the midst of today's general market selloff, which is particularly acute in Europe, oil is tanking some more.

West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) is now below $80/barrel for the first time since summer, 2012.



Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/oil-october-16-2014-10#ixzz3GJ6m0M8Q

[xchrom]

5. 10 Things You Need To Know Before The Opening Bell

http://www.businessinsider.com/10-things-you-need-to-know-before-the-opening-bell-2014-10

Italy’s tax Cut Is The Biggest Ever Done. Italy's cabinet on Wednesday approved a 2015 budget just hours before an EU deadline, unveiling plans to increase borrowing to slash taxes by €18 billion ($23.03 billion).

Saudi Arabia And Dubai Markets Plunge Amid Panic Selling. Saudi Arabia's main stock index plunged 5 percent on Thursday amid panic selling by retail investors, dragging down other stock markets in the Gulf.

Europe's 'Fear Index' Is Smashing Through The Roof Today. Europe's volatility-measuring VSTOXX index is up by more than 20% already today.

European Markets Are Getting Hammered Again. The FTSE 100 is down 1.83%, France's CAC 40 index is down 2.40% and Germany's DAX is down 1.76%.

US Industrial Production Is Coming. At 9.15 a.m. ET, we’ll have industrial production figures for September, with analysts expecting a 0.4% increase from August. Then at 10 a.m. ET, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey is out.



Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/10-things-you-need-to-know-before-the-opening-bell-2014-10#ixzz3GJ7KCqre

[xchrom]

6. The 10 Most Important Things In The World Right Now

http://www.businessinsider.com/10-most-important-things-in-the-world-right-now-october-16-2014-2014-10

1. Hong Kong's pro-democracy protests have been reignited by video footage that appears to show officers beating an unarmed demonstrator, while photos of the victim apparently show severe bruising from the alleged attack.

2. A second Texas nurse infected with Ebola after treating Liberian patient Thomas Eric Duncan reported having a slight fever before she flew to Dallas from Ohio the day prior to receiving a diagnosis.

3. The plunge in oil prices has placed increasing financial pressure on countries that export it, including Russia, Iran, and Venezuela. In the short term, "the big producers will probably face budget problems in varying degrees of severity, with an array of economic, strategic and political ramifications," The New York Times writes.

4. Gen. John Allen, a former four-star general, warned on Wednesday that Islamic State militants were making significant gains in Iraq and Syria despite US-led airstrikes against the terrorist group, the Financial Times reports.

5. Two new polls on Wednesday suggested that Brazil's Oct. 26 presidential election between leftist incumbent Dilma Rousseff and pro-business candidate Aecio Neves would be extremely close.



Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/10-most-important-things-in-the-world-right-now-october-16-2014-2014-10#ixzz3GJ7niXU4

[xchrom]

7. Italy's Tax Cut Is 'The Biggest Ever Done'

http://www.businessinsider.com/afp-renzi-unveils-2015-budget-says-italy-ready-to-answer-to-eu-2014-10

Milan (AFP) - Italy's cabinet on Wednesday approved a 2015 budget just hours before an EU deadline, unveiling plans to increase borrowing to slash taxes by 18 billion euros, but promising to abide by deficit rules.

The tax cut is "the biggest ever done in the history of the Italian Republic," Prime Minister Matteo Renzi told a press conference after a race to nail down budget plans which will be scrutinised by the European Commission before going before parliament.

"This is a great, great, great change. It's a budget which aims to expand and be counter-cyclical in a moment of difficulty," he said.

At the heart of the programme is 18 billion euros ($23 billion) worth of tax cuts for businesses and lower-income individuals which Renzi said had been a no-brainer because taxes "had reached a crazy level."



Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/afp-renzi-unveils-2015-budget-says-italy-ready-to-answer-to-eu-2014-10#ixzz3GJ8M3Tm7

[xchrom]

8. Saudi Arabia And Dubai Markets Plunge Amid Panic Selling

http://www.businessinsider.com/saudi-arabia-and-dubai-markets-plunge-amid-panic-selling-2014-10

Saudi Arabia's main stock index plunged 5 percent on Thursday amid panic selling by retail investors, dragging down other stock markets in the Gulf.

The Saudi index sank to 9,407 points, its lowest level since mid-April. In response, Dubai's index tumbled 4.7 percent and Qatar lost 2.3 percent.

The Saudi market has now erased all of the 14 percent gains which it posted after authorities announced in late July that they would open the market to direct foreign investment early next year.

Traders said the slide of global equity markets had undermined confidence in Saudi Arabia, while the drop of oil prices to their lowest level since 2010 was also negative for the world's biggest oil exporting country.



Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/saudi-arabia-and-dubai-markets-plunge-amid-panic-selling-2014-10#ixzz3GJ8zncEp

[xchrom]

9. Europe's 'Fear Index' Is Smashing Through The Roof Today

http://www.businessinsider.com/europes-fear-index-surging-2014-10

Europe's "fear index," the VSTOXX index, is going through the roof Thursday morning. The index measures volatility in European markets. It's the "cousin" of the VIX.

It's at a two-year high already, and still climbing. It's up 23.72% already today, dipping above and below 35, after spending basically all of the time since Autumn 2012 below 25.

It's smashed straight through the 30 mark and is on the climb.

Analysts at Rabobank laid it out for investors in a note this morning (emphasis theirs):

"Markets seem to be trading as if we are now entering a QE-less world which we currently are... As we’ve argued repeatedly, that translates as ‘welcome to an asset-rich, income-poor world without the asset-rich part’."



Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/europes-fear-index-surging-2014-10#ixzz3GJ9pVhN3

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/europes-fear-index-surging-2014-10#ixzz3GJ9boXBQ

[xchrom]

10. Global Market Turmoil Has The World's Central Bankers On Their Heels

http://www.businessinsider.com/r-central-bankers-may-have-no-quick-fix-as-markets-swoon-economy-weakens-2014-10

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Global central bankers, eager to see the economy stand on its own feet, faced the rude reality this week of market turmoil threatening already faltering growth and prolonging world reliance on easy money.

Stocks slumped again on Wednesday pushing S&P 500 losses to almost 8 percent since mid-September. The dollar fell and U.S. bond prices soared after weak Chinese inflation and U.S. producer price and retail sales data fanned fears the world economy could be even weaker than thought.

When stock markets turned south last week after rallying for much of this year, many policymakers initially played that down. In fact, the sell-off could be seen bringing some healthy volatility back to markets that officials worried had become too complacent to risks ranging from tensions surrounding the conflict in Ukraine to the Ebola outbreak.

But the deepening of the sell-off may have put major central banks on their heels, by raising the prospect of the market rout going too far too fast, threatening to hurt confidence and potentially triggering a pullback in spending.



Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/r-central-bankers-may-have-no-quick-fix-as-markets-swoon-economy-weakens-2014-10#ixzz3GJATZ0pU

[xchrom]

11. The State Of Monetary Policy In Every Major Economy In The World

http://www.businessinsider.com/monetary-policy-around-the-world-2014-10



US - Expect First Rate Hike In Q1 2016
Dollar strength and overseas economic weakness could feed disinflation bck to the US, lowering need for imminent rate hike from the Fed.

Euro Area - Lower For Longer, But No QE
The chances of QE has increased (up to 40% probability in our view), but not our base-case; the need for full-blown QE will be reduced, if the ABSPP was sizeable and successful.

Japan - Further Easing Expected
Policy response to poor data likely to be further easing of monetary policy as soon as end-October and more aggressive action on the raft of structural reforms.

UK - Rate Rise Expected in Q1 2015
A first rate rise in 1Q would give a few more months for the recover to settle in. We expect three 25bp rate rises in each of 2015 and 2016. However, this won't happen without higher pay growth.

China - Targeted Easing
In view of strong growth headwinds, the PBOC is likely to maintain the loosening bias in monetary policy; targeted easing measures such as pledged supplementary lending (PSL) and selective RRR cuts will likely remain as the main tools to keep financial conditions loose.



Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/monetary-policy-around-the-world-2014-10#ixzz3GJB25hiI

[Demeter]

12. That's an amusing (but totally BS) Chart

EVERY economy with the possible exception of Russia and Iceland is contracting because they are all following neoliberal economics principles, which is basically: roll over and die, you peasants!

The corruption of cronyism has become global again. The US provides no counter-example, any more.

It's gonna take fire to cleanse the continents of greed and hoarding by the 1% because democracy and noblese oblige are both dead, as well as unions and "christian" charity, not to mention the Rule of Law, fairness and justice. The Enlightenment is dead, as well as Common Sense. (both Thomas Paine's and the garden variety). There is nothing left but to refight the battles of the 18th century so that certain lessons can be relearned.

For this Baby Boomer, raised in the assumption that all the BIG problems of the world had been solved and there was only mopping up (and spreading equality) left to do, this century has been a big shock.

I forgot Latin America....there's so much variation, and too much US policy bleeding over for them to stand independently, but they are trying, when our "special" forces aren't killing them.

[bread_and_roses]

13. Well said, Sister. This Boomer too ....

When I look at the long backward slide since the early '70's I find it hard to fathom. The only ray of hope on the horizon I see is the low-wage workers standing up for a raise .... but it's time for more, bigger demands:

a guaranteed national income
socialized health care, energy, and communications.
get rid of the rich - whether it's through Eisenhower-ian tax rates or ....
free education through at least BA/BS
"Manhattan project" & WWII type mobilization on green energy inc ban on fossil fuel extraction

oh, and ...

do something about the endless war machine and especially stop blowing children to bloody bits, something I personally find as horrifying as beheading people

... sigh ...

since we're not going to do those things, since our revered pundits like Paul Krugman keep talking basically as if everything is "normal" and it's all about economic "growth" - goddess, he's useless ...

so .... I have no hope. I see no future.

[Demeter]

15. I think you are infringing on Hotler's trademark phrase there

but it could be a national slogan. Imagine, royalties!

[mahatmakanejeeves]

14. ETA News Release: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report (10/16/2014)

Source: Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration

Read More: http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/eta20141949.pdf

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending October 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 264,000, a decrease of 23,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 287,000. This is the lowest level for initial claims since April 15, 2000 when it was 259,000. The 4-week moving average was 283,500, a decrease of 4,250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 287,750. This is the lowest level for this average since June 10, 2000 when it was 283,500.
....

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.8 percent for the week ending October 4, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending October 4 was 2,389,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up 1,000 from 2,381,000 to 2,382,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,403,750, a decrease of 10,750 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since June 17, 2006 when it was 2,399,000. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 2,414,250 to 2,414,500.
....

UNADJUSTED DATA

....
The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending September 27 was 2,088,553, a decrease of 38,946 from the previous week. There were 3,929,626 persons claiming benefits in all programs in the comparable week in 2013.

[Demeter]

16. Fought back to only -50+ from an open of -250

Fight fiercely, Harvard!

[Fuddnik]

17. Was actually in the green for a while.

The faeries must have run out of dust.

The gremlins have about 20 minutes to do their dirty work now.

[Demeter]

18. Saw that. Wonder how much it cost us.

-20 at almost 4 PM.