The Week End Economists take a poll position. Mar 19-20, 2016.

[Hugin]

This week it's all about Poll Fatigue.

Note: This article is from 2013 and it's only gone down hill since then.

"Survey says: Polls are biased" (Very insightful, Captain Obvious. )

"Pollsters took a stark look into the mirror Tuesday, seeking to explain how a new survey found that three quarters of Americans say most polls are "biased toward a particular point of view.

'People don't trust the media and you've got a plethora of media polls that are taking over the conversation,' said Obama campaign pollster Joel Benenson. Pew Research president Alan Murray cited a broader trend, arguing that 'there is an element of this that people don't people trust anybody or any institution.' (For polling on that trend, see here.)

Despite the negative overall assessment, the poll, which was conducted by the research firm Kantar, also demonstrated the public doesn't trust all polls equally. Nearly two-thirds say they trust surveys conducted by academic groups, and over half trust those by non-partisan foundations."



More on this here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2013/09/04/survey-says-polls-are-biased/

3 votes, 0 passes | Time left: Unlimited
	As a person on the street, I'm strictly undecided.
	0 (0%)
	Over there!
	0 (0%)
	Why can't we all just get along?
	0 (0%)
	CALL CONGRESS RIGHT FRICKIN' NOW!!!1!!i!@!ii!
	0 (0%)
	This poll is not serious enough.
	0 (0%)
	Aw, I thought you said "pole".
	0 (0%)
	At night with the lights off, it gets very dark.
	1 (33%)
	Duck!
	0 (0%)
	Bunny!
	0 (0%)
	I like pie.
	2 (67%)
	0 DU members did not wish to select any of the options provided.
Show usernames Disclaimer: This is an Internet poll

[Hugin]

1. A historical perspective on the SMW, WEE, and the Economy Group.

Last edited Sat Mar 19, 2016, 02:27 PM - Edit history (2)

The Stock Market Watch:

The Stock Market Watch thread has been a regular feature in DU almost since the beginning. It was started by a group of DU'ers with an eye to expanding the posting traffic to what were at the time under-utilized Forums outside of General Discussion. The SMW appeared with it's banner on a daily basis for years in the Latest Breaking News Forum under the curate of a DU member called Ozymandias. In those days we were able to link to near real-time updates of the futures and current stock index chart images, so, even though some dated articles and opinion pieces were posted within the thread, the content of the OP was really and truly "Breaking News".

The Weekend Economists:

The Weekend Economists thread was started in the run-up to the Market Crash of 2008. During that time frame often shenanigans were pulled by the Wall Street Wizards late on Fridays and during the wee hours on weekend nights. Originally, updates of these goings-on were posted as they occurred in the SMW from the previous Friday. But, along with the bank closings, these sneaky economic manipulations became so regular (in the establishing of TARP.) that an independent thread was started in the LBN. Eventually, these threads became known as the Weekend Economists feature. It wasn't always able to claim Breaking Newsiness enough to claim a place in LBN and it resided on DU2 for a time in the Great Reads Forum. Most of it's life after the initial frenzy of the crash it was maintained by a few stalwart weekenders led by Demeter and her prolific posting style. It was a good feature to have around, because, we never knew when shenanigans would break out while the rest of the M$M was looking the other way. I must give some credit to President Obama administration's reduction of these sorts of events. Over the last few years, I have observed a marked reduction. (Excluding, the actions of a hostile congress shutting down the government and passing punitive sequestrations.) However, the tides seem to be changing and we may need to keep watching.

The Economy Group:

When DU3 was rolled out, it included a new feature called "Groups". A great idea to give those people with a common interest a place to congregate, explore, and inform. One of those groups is the Economy Group. The transition from DU2 to DU3 also brought a measure of chaos as the population of DU migrated and a new way of life was adapted to. One of those adaptations was that the SMW and WEE were no longer generally considered to be "LBN material". So, the logical place for them to be placed was in the Economy Group. However, that presented a problem for how those features were formatted and presented. There was a level of redundancy in this arrangement. Those who have Economic posts to share see no need to post within a thread when they can start an OP of their own under the umbrella of the EG. Not a problem, I'm very happy to see them.

What is clear is the three of them need to evolve so that we as a group can become a powerhouse of economic aggregation and information sharing.

Any thoughts? Suggestions?

[Fuddnik]

2. I took a poll of my dogs , and they said.

"Give us more Frosty Paws, right now, or we're going to bite your ass".

Over the years, we've been called all sorts of names, and derided as "fascists" by the conservadems and boot lickers around here, merely for trying to add overlooked points, mostly valid, to the discussion. I remember one Sat. morning a couple of years ago, one of them even got the WEE thread pulled. Skinner got it reinstated.

Some of our best posters have died, or been targeted, and driven off to oblivion for daring to challenge the status quo. Others have just said, "To hell with it", and moved on. I, myself am leaning towaards Door #3. I ain't getting any younger, and you can only beat your head against a wall so long, before you start getting a headache.

[Hugin]

3. Speaking of the dogs.

One of the glaring defects with DU3 is you haven't posted any photos of them.

[Fuddnik]

4. Can't seem to get them to post the old way.

[DemReadingDU]

5. Sorry, lack of time

I haven't moved on elsewhere, just so little time to post anything anymore. The Economy group is the only group I read on DU, especially the SMW and Weekend threads, though there is not the volume recently. However, others do post regularly in the Economy group and that is worthwhile to browse the important economic topics too.

[Hotler]

8. I'm tired guys, deep down in my soul I'm tired.

That being said, I think the PTB have caught on to the fact that people are paying more attention to the late night and Friday last minute news dumps and are being more cautious on how and when they let shit fly. The media has tightened up and I think we are going to have to dig deeper in to the back rooms of the media to find more truth to what is going on. I mean we can only get so much information from the regular sources these days. (Zero Hedge, Bloomberg, MSNBC, CNBC, etc.) I think we all know that the world and this country is going to shittier before it gets better and that is part of the reason I am tired, I have overload.
Maybe we need to tighten up SMW to be only about the markets and not drift into other areas of economics, separate that into the general area of the Economy Group like others have posted and not make SMW our own little group within a group. There are people that post in the EG that have good thoughts and bring good articles to the table and we ought to try and make them feel welcome and bring them to the table. I'm not saying the we are excluding anyone , but maybe we can tighten up the whole group. I'm rambling here.
As far as WEE is concerned I think we all know that there is another crash on the horizon and a watchful eye is needed, but maybe we can combine WEE with SMW and just continue SMW through the weekend and make it one.
If we feel the need for a weekend thread where art, literature, music, etc. is needed we could have one and call it something like Weekend Get Away or something like that. A place we we can take our minds and (souls ) away from the economic crap that drags us down throughout the week. A safe place were we can relax or recharge and reconnect with each other.

There are a lot of people that used to come by here that I really miss.
Peace
Hot.

[Gungnir]

6. The info on these threads is very powerful to those who are in position to use it...

One would be making "an ass of Uma Thurman", as Al Franken says, to think that the info posted here has not been used to fearlessly expose the criminals (legal criminals too), change policy and laws for the better and to give "lift", however small and seemingly inconsequential, to those on the front lines of the fight, through to those barely hanging on. As well as to those who choose to fight and those who by happenstance are thrown/dragged/pushed into battle.

All three of these economy groups are very powerful, and each has their place.

The economy group:
The perfect place for Threads like
mahatmakanejeeves' "Oil Train Safety. Links to News Articles, Industry Groups, Regulatory Agencies. Updated 03-02-2016"

This kind of thread is incredibly powerful. It can be made even more powerful if people spread the word about it. Have railroad issues in your state? Are your Representatives on the side of the people? Find out who in any of your Reps offices handles the railroad issue and let them know of the resource. Same goes for local reporters, investigative reporters, any activists on the issue, etc.

Both the Daily Stockmarket Watch and WEE:
Great threads for discussing current events and deeper links from the past, as well as thoughts and observations, like a cross index tying it all together (or at least trying). Again, a great resource for spreading the word and getting one of the least biased views out there. To be able read what the other side is saying, what contrarians are saying, what those who look and post here see is an invaluable resource to all who don't want to be fooled. As physicist Richard Feynman said: The first principle is to not get fooled, and you are the easiest person to fool.

There is no need to try and convince those who don't want to be convinced. The information is here, and for those who leave or are trying to leave the cave it can be a stabilizing force. For those who are in a position affect or make policy it powerful.

What is posted here is always quality. I argue that even if there are no replies, it still provides a basic foundation of quality and an invite to build on it. While few can post prolifically like the greatly missed Ozy, RadFringe, or Demeter, any post can add greatly to the fight. Its who, not how many, sees the information presented here.

We are all part of the ecosystem, whether its one grain of sand for the foundation or a cornerstone, it all matters. Let others build " target="_blank">"Swamp Castle" we are here for the long haul.

While it was a treasure to have those who can post prolifically, one post, even one a week can greatly add to the conversation.

Just because you don't the end results or can say exactly what your contribution did, believe that it did.

TansyGold and Hugin set the stage for us... To paraphrase Thom Hartmann, - Tag! You're it!



Gungnir

[Gungnir]

7. Why Citizen Science and Public Media Need to Get Together

Lets put our representatives in this process too.

http://cmsw.mit.edu/citizen-science-public-media-need-get-together/

The role of media in citizen science

When I say “media,” I’m referring to processes that facilitate the documentation, reporting, or construction of information. There is “mass media” (i.e. TV, radio, major news outlets) and what I call “micromedia” (i.e. blogs, social media, etc.) in both digital and non-digital contexts. You’ll see quickly, however, that the lines between both distinctions blur very quickly and very easily.
...
Transmission to ritual

Media theorist James W. Carey presents two different models of communication that might be useful in helping us think through this. One is a transmission model, in which one party imparts information to another, like in traditional broadcast TV and radio. This is also a typically unidirectional relationship between media and people.

See link for diagram

The other is a ritualistic model, which is defined by things like sharing, participation, association, and fellowship. Based on what we know about citizen science and its collaborative involvement of the public, Carey’s ritualistic view of communication seems to lay along the line of best fit.

See link for diagram on affecting poilicy

While traditional media relies on transmission, I propose that citizen science media should shift toward the participatory ritualistic model in order to raise public awareness about science, induct participants in citizen science projects, and close the feedback loop between the public, scientists, and media outlets.

[Hotler]

10. Well said..... n/t

[Gungnir]

11. What Do I Do Next?

Since those who post and read here are skeptics, I think we can get inspiration from the Skeptic community. (There is a great synergistic opportunity with the Skeptic community, they have lots to learn about how politics and policy work. And they have a lot of deep technical skills we would find immensely helpful)

105 Ways To Promote Skeptical Activism:
Quick Reference Guide

Abbreviated here for easy reference, the 105 topics are arranged under general headings:

Support Major Skeptical Organizations
Learn & Communicate
Investigate
Local Organizing & Fun
Your Community
Interact with Media
Schools
Libraries
Political Action
Consumer Activism
Film & Video
Online Activism
Personal Relationships

Examples:

3. Write to encourage your favorite skeptics and skeptical organizations.

A little encouragement goes a long way.
Also support skeptics with feedback on blogs, and supportive calls to radio talk shows.
Why not share your thoughts about this project at the Skeptic Forum right now?

11. Learn what makes professional marketing and communication effective.

Your message is worthless unless you can persuade people to listen to you.
Proofread, spell-check, and take care to be courteous.
Our production values and communication strategies still need to improve.
If you’re going to participate in media interviews, consider reading A Scientist’s Guide to Talking With the Media: Practical Advice from the Union of Concerned Scientists.

14. Learn from other outreach efforts.

Skeptics can learn from the hard-won experience of political and religious promoters throughout history.
Stressing our enthusiasm for science and critical thinking is a far more positive message than bashing pseudoscience.
Don’t think that effective activism and outreach requires only common sense. Grassroots activists should not ignore the tried and true methods honed by professionals.

15. Communicate through your current channels.

All professions feature pseudoscientific ideas particular to that field. Speak out within your own area of expertise.


Even if you live in bat-shit-crazy town that there is almost no hope of changing, use the "inter-tubes" to look around the country to find where the issues that matter most to you are being successful. Help push that forward. Distant precedent can change things much more quickly locally than Don Quixote can tilting at windmills.

Consider just asking people at a charity walk how many of them have ever contacted their representatives on the cause that the walk is about? ( My bet is zero) Ask how many vote. (My bet is few ) Ask if they would consider thanking their representatives for supporting research, etc on the cause. ( Get their wheels turning in their head )

[Gungnir]

12. A seminal moment in the Skeptic community on winning the fight

At TAM 8, July 8-11, 2010, Bad Astronomer Phil Plait gave a thoughtful talk called "Don't Be A Dick." ( the discussions of it turned how the community engaged with trolls and the public; the criticism of the talk turned the movement into the more appropriate, when to be a dick. It is worth looking at how the skeptical movement changed after this talk if you are in need of or are interested in how to build an effective movement)

https://vimeo.com/13704095

The “Don’t Be A Dick” Heard Round the World
https://epsilonclue.wordpress.com/2010/07/14/the-dont-be-a-dick-heard-round-the-world/

[Gungnir]

9. Criminal Matter for the Attorney General of NY? NYC’s $764M Medical Records System Will Lead to ‘Pat

There's a Pulitzer waiting for any journalist wanting to expose the $39.5Billion (taxpayer dollars) Electronic Health Records scam; and who knows how many deaths

I want to know where the trial lawyers have been for the last decade on the debacle.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/03/criminal-matter-for-the-attorney-general-of-ny-nycs-764m-medical-records-system-will-lead-to-patient-death-insiders.html

I believe the suffering and death of my mother in 2010-2011 due to EHR flaws – including but not limited to lack of essential confirmation dialogs on medication deletion at triage, lack of notification messages informing down-line staff of such action by unqualified personnel (inadequate support of teamwork), and other issues – lends me some moral standing to comment on the following as a horrifying and potentially criminal matter. (See http://khn.org/news/scot-silverstein-health-information-technology/).

Two back-to-back articles appeared in the New York Post:

NYC’s $764M medical records system will lead to ‘patient death’: insiders
By Michael Gartland
March 15, 2016
http://nypost.com/2016/03/15/nycs-764m-medical-records-system-will-lead-to-patient-death-insiders/

and

Hospital exec [CMIO] quits, compares $764M upgrade to Challenger disaster
By Michael Gartland
March 16, 2016
http://nypost.com/2016/03/16/hospital-exec-quits-compares-764m-upgrade-to-challenger-disaster/

It is well-known and indisputable that this technology can and does injure and kill, especially when poorly designed, defective, poorly implemented, or all of the above. See for instance the ECRI EHR risk Deep Dive study results at http://hcrenewal.blogspot.com/2013/02/peering-underneath-icebergs-water-level.html.