Skynet Threatens Middle Class ...

[PsychoBabble]

Of course, we can't ignore the 45 Clown Car fiasco. But there is a bigger picture that is only being talked about in bits n pieces - the tech-driven end of the Middle Class, which if you look closely, also means the end of our consumer-driven economy. Interesting article here discusses how AI will simply eliminate many of the jobs we take for granted:

(Snip)

Yes, they discussed the possibility of a superintelligence that could somehow escape human control, and at the end of the month, the conference organizers unveiled a set of guidelines, signed by attendees and other AI luminaries, that aim to prevent this possible dystopia. But the researchers at Asilomar were also concerned with more immediate matters: tohe effect of AI on the economy.

“One of the reasons I don’t like the discussions about superintelligence is that they’re a distraction from what’s real,” says Oren Etzioni, CEO of the Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence, who attended the conference. “As the poet said, have fewer imaginary problems and more real ones.”

At a time when the Trump administration is promising to make America great again by restoring old-school manufacturing jobs, AI researchers aren’t taking him too seriously. They know that these jobs are never coming back, thanks in no small part to their own research, which will eliminate so many other kinds of jobs in the years to come, as well. At Asilomar, they looked at the real US economy, the real reasons for the “hollowing out” of the middle class. The problem isn’t immigration—far from it. The problem isn’t offshoring or taxes or regulation. It’s technology.

Rage Against the Machines
In the US, the number of manufacturing jobs peaked in 1979 and has steadily decreased ever since. At the same time, manufacturing has steadily increased, with the US now producing more goods than any other country but China. Machines aren’t just taking the place of humans on the assembly line. They’re doing a better job. And all this before the coming wave of AI upends so many other sectors of the economy. “I am less concerned with Terminator scenarios,” MIT economist Andrew McAfee said on the first day at Asilomar. “If current trends continue, people are going to rise up well before the machines do.”

McAfee pointed to newly collected data that shows a sharp decline in middle class job creation since the 1980s. Now, most new jobs are either at the very low end of the pay scale or the very high end. He also argued that these trends are reversible, that improved education and a greater emphasis on entrepreneurship and research can help feed new engines of growth, that economies have overcome the rise of new technologies before. But after his talk, in the hallways at Asilomar, so many of the researchers warned him that the coming revolution in AI would eliminate far more jobs far more quickly than he expected." ...

https://www.wired.com/2017/02/ai-threat-isnt-skynet-end-middle-class/

I read another piece recently that talked about this tech tidal wave is also wiping out higher echelon jobs like investment banking, traders, etc ... since machine driven decision-making is ALREADY better than humans in theses areas. The writing is on the wall.

As an educator, I feel like we are teaching a generation for a future that has a good chance of disappearing rapidly. And as we squabble about Right/Left details, we avoid the discussions that need to happen, both grass roots, and higher up the food chain.

We've discussed the demographic shifts that inevitably work against the Conservatives ... this tech/economy shift feels even bigger to me, even if (slightly) further out.

BOTTOM LINE: What happens to society when there are no longer enough jobs to support our basic way of life?

[CincyDem]

1. Two quotes that go hand in hand with this point.

Not sure of the sources on either...

1) Middle class isn't losing their jobs to Mexico, they're losing jobs to the microchip (and the chip ain't giving them back) - I think this was Tom Friedman ???

2) As the internet shrinks the world, there are three important numbers...7, 5, 3. 7 Billion people. 5 Billion of them inside the traditional scope of "work capable". 3 Billion jobs for those 5 billion. That's from a couple years ago so the number may have changed a little but the underlying principle is still the same.


In today's world, the global structural employment participation rate is probably about 60% and at some point in the future, it's going to be a global issue. The US exported unemployment for decades and this is a time of rebalancing. Without some fundamental investment to create a competitive workforce (say in something like maybe education ???)...that rebalancing isn't going to be helping the US middle class.

[PsychoBabble]

3. Interesting numbers ...

7, 5, 3 ... a good way to get a handle on scope of problem. Thanks for the input.

[2naSalit]

2. Well, if we were smart

we'd start using alternative currency, like barter and eschew the machinations of industry to the point that it endangers us. I hate money and capitalism so I am already in an alternate currency paradigm that is the only way for me to survive.

[guillaumeb]

4. A guaranteed basic income for all.

The country is rich enough, and the 1% are rich enough, that an appropriate level of top marginal taxation would redistribute income.

When the 6 Walton principal heirs are richer than the bottom 40% of Americans combined, it is obvious that the tax structure needs to be adjusted. No one person needs to be a billionaire.

[JHan]

5. I welcome the future. This should have been THE topic last year..

Not trade.

And this is where I've been wanting Democrats to lead the conversation because the solutions are already baked in the cake of democratic policy. The future will be dire unless we shift some of the profits from productivity gains to those who will need it through UBI and Universal Health Care.

[PsychoBabble]

6. Agreed, and ...

I am not sure how we get out of this without acknowledging that some basic needs MUST be provided to every citizen. Where I get stuck is 30 years AFTER ... how do we handle a complete SOCIETY based on UBI, and an expectation that someone else generates most of the $$$?

Cultural incentives, etc etc.

Do corporations then gain even more power, since they likely sustain most people?

Not seeing how we avoid some radical shift in how we've viewed "public life" for centuries ....

[JHan]

7. There's no way we can avoid it..

Not seeing how we avoid some radical shift in how we've viewed "public life" for centuries ....

Thus far, we've toiled mainly under feudalistic systems until capitalism came into its own in the 20th century where, regardless of who you were, you could engage in free enterprise provided you had access to capital and support to create wealth. As we know, that wasn't always the case for all people because access to capital and support was restricted to some. Policies with a socialist bent arose as a means to temper the excesses of capitalism and give support to those alienated and ideally we function best in a system with both.

The next step is to free ourselves from being defined by the market due to income and social status, i.e. "Production per unit" mentality. Still, the freedom of not having to do a job that is unsatisfying either because it pays poorly or deleterious to your health, gives us more time to do other things - like become micro-entrepreneurs for example.
I don't envision that jobs will just disappear , but shift to other sectors. New industries will crop up requiring human input of one kind of another, but if based on technology will lean towards high skilled labor. And even if machination or automation is involved, perhaps mini industries will spring with workers owning the machines they use for their jobs We'll always have nascent industries crop up, because consumerism will never go away.

The paradigm shift will be great because Governance will be central to progress over the next couple decades, and this is where I will slightly disagree with your op. I think it is an issue between Right and Left - the Right is anti- Government and still attracted to regressive ideas like fossil fuel extraction, climate change denial, nationalism, autocraticism, theocracy. We need our institutions to be strong so we can navigate the difficulties ahead - the Right wishes to destroy many of these institutions.