The U.S. Economy Could Contract by 24% Next Quarter, Goldman Sachs Says
The U.S. Economy Could Contract by 24% Next Quarter, Goldman Sachs Says
Barron’s
By Alexandra Scaggs
March 20, 2020 10:08 am ET
Goldman Sachs is now projecting a massive U.S. economic contraction in the second quarter of the year.
The bank is forecasting a 24% decline in economic activity next quarter, compared to their previous forecast for a 5% decline. That’s because U.S. economic data (specifically manufacturing data) have already started to miss economist estimates, even before Americans started to stay home to avoid spreading the coronavirus.
Their estimate, published Friday morning, is one of the most pessimistic on Wall Street. J.P. Morgan released estimates Wednesday that predicted a 14% contraction in second-quarter U.S. growth.
If Goldman’s economists are right, that means the U.S. is approaching the sharpest single-quarter decline in gross domestic product since the U.S. started measuring GDP in its current form. The current record for the largest quarterly slowdown was in the first quarter of 1958, the bank says, when GDP declined 10%.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/u-s-economy-could-contract-by-24-next-quarter-goldman-sachs-says-51584713292