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Sat Aug 6, 2022, 04:28 AM

The Fed will have to 'break this economy' to tame inflation after the strong jobs report,

Mohamed El-Erian says.

Top economist Mohamed El-Erian said Friday's strong jobs report is good news for the economy but bad news for the Federal Reserve.

In an interview with Bloomberg, El-Erian, who is an economic adviser to Allianz and Gramercy, said the labor market data goes against the Fed's insistence that the economy is at a neutral position.

"[The Fed] is not going to welcome this report," El-Erian said. "It's bad news for them in every single way. It makes the notion that we are at 'neutral' comical."

In particular, El-Erian pointed to the inversion between the 2- and 10-year Treasury notes, which have been flashing a recession signal for more than a month straight. The spread, which has long preceded economic past downturns, deepened on Friday to its lowest point in decades.

"[The spread] is now at forty basis points, it's saying that [the Fed] is going to have to somehow break this economy to bring inflation under control," El-Erian maintained.

As for markets, El-Erian noted that technical indicators remain robust and still favor stocks following the new jobs data.

Nonetheless, the economy is in an uncertain spot now because the central bank has repeatedly been late with policy maneuvers, according to El-Erian. Now, the Fed is scrambling to make up for its own delays. >>>

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/fed-rate-outlook-jobs-report-break-markets-economy-mohamed-elerian-2022-8?

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Reply The Fed will have to 'break this economy' to tame inflation after the strong jobs report, (Original post)
elleng Aug 6 OP
honest.abe Aug 6 #1
brush Aug 6 #2
honest.abe Aug 6 #4
Claustrum Aug 6 #14
Rebl2 Aug 6 #17
Fullduplexxx Aug 6 #19
Captain Zero Aug 6 #3
brush Aug 6 #6
duforsure Aug 6 #5
sprinkleeninow Aug 6 #7
AllyCat Aug 6 #9
True Blue American Aug 6 #11
MerryHolidays Aug 6 #8
LittleGirl Aug 6 #10
True Blue American Aug 6 #12
nowforever Aug 6 #13
doc03 Aug 6 #15
essaynnc Aug 6 #16
bucolic_frolic Aug 6 #18
Emile Aug 8 #20

Response to elleng (Original post)

Sat Aug 6, 2022, 04:37 AM

1. Somehow that sounds absurd.

Imho

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Response to honest.abe (Reply #1)

Sat Aug 6, 2022, 04:53 AM

2. Yes, something is fishy. Seems the strong jobs report...

goes against their theory that a recession is right around the corner so they're going to have to keep raising interest rates until their prediction comes true.

So many in so many agencies seem to be working against the Bidne admin's success.

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Response to brush (Reply #2)

Sat Aug 6, 2022, 05:07 AM

4. Yeah, break the economy, force millions to be laid off, become homeless, starving..

So thatís good? I donít get it.

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Response to honest.abe (Reply #4)

Sat Aug 6, 2022, 07:22 AM

14. It's good when you have tons of money

so you can catch the bottom of the market. TFG has said that in 2015-2016. That's why republican economic policies like to juice up the market to a point where it becomes a bubble and it bursts a few years after their "tax break" (see Bush 2nd term and 6 years after TFG in office). Then they get to buy all of the foreclosed properties on the cheap and make tons more money when it comes back up years after democrats work to fix the economy.

Now, the millions of people laid off and lose their entire saving? It's the democrats fault for crashing the economy and it's their own bad financial decisions leading to them losing all they have. It couldn't have been their bad economic policies that led to it. It just can't be. But at the same time, these people let it slip once in a while that they think it's a good thing that they should plan to buy when the economy bottoms out.

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Response to honest.abe (Reply #4)

Sat Aug 6, 2022, 10:04 AM

17. I don't either

You would think with low unemployment, many jobs available, the economy would be going great. I donít get why inflation is so high. The only thing I can think is companies are raising prices because of losses they had early on during the pandemic and losses due to supply chain issues. Itís not just in our country either. Other countries are having same issues with inflation.

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Response to honest.abe (Reply #4)

Sat Aug 6, 2022, 11:08 AM

19. And im betting it needs to be done by September or October

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Response to honest.abe (Reply #1)

Sat Aug 6, 2022, 04:57 AM

3. That's Capitalism?

Cyclical, and it also attempts to commodify everything including Democracy.

That's why a social democracy is best if we can ever get there. There is much rampant greed that does not help the situation.

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Response to Captain Zero (Reply #3)

Sat Aug 6, 2022, 05:23 AM

6. That's unregulated, laissez-faire capitalism.

Social democracy's are also capitalist economies, but ones with regulations to stop out-of-control greed and outrageous income disparity, while also providing robust safety nets for its citizen with benefits like single-payer health care, free college, generous family leave after child birth, etc.

It's important to point out they're a version of capitalism also

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Response to honest.abe (Reply #1)

Sat Aug 6, 2022, 05:19 AM

5. Because it is absurd,

As soon as supply and demand catches up and equals out, Putin's war from weaponing everything he can stops, and corporate greed from increasing their profit margins come down , the feds move will only partially slow inflation down, but if you look at big oil profit margins, its hurt many area's of the economy, and Putin has used as a weapon oil and gas and food.
As the gasoline prices drastically drop, inflation will follow too. Its true the federal reserve could over react , but right now slowing down the inflation rates is a top priority, then ease off interest rates being increased, maybe reduced to balance it back out. The world economy affects everyone too. Our country's economy is in very good shape, and recovery has been extremely well done.

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Response to duforsure (Reply #5)

Sat Aug 6, 2022, 06:20 AM

7. Y is the leftover Fed head still calling the shots.🤔

Y is he permitted to still function in this capacity.🤔

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Response to duforsure (Reply #5)

Sat Aug 6, 2022, 06:24 AM

9. Thank you for this

I cannot understand this report. How can an economy good for workers be bad?

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Response to honest.abe (Reply #1)

Sat Aug 6, 2022, 06:43 AM

11. Same for me.

So many experts quoting doom and gloom for the economy have been proven wrong.

What I am seeing in my personal life is people desperate to buy new cars, furniture, anything.

Sales are busting out all over. Companies made the mistake of stock piling. Customers refused to pay gouging prices. They now need to sell. Thus,sales.

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Response to elleng (Original post)

Sat Aug 6, 2022, 06:21 AM

8. This is bordering on ridiculous

We are still in a pandemic, we are close to being in a world war, President Biden has countered both Russia and China, he has pulled us out of the US's longest war, etc.

Yet, the "pundits" are complaining that the job market is too hot?

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Response to elleng (Original post)

Sat Aug 6, 2022, 06:27 AM

10. I have an idea!

How about taxing corporations with fees for excessive profits by over pricing products when the country is under duress.

How about removing Citizens United so that money gets out of politics!

How about student loan debt that has fraudulent interest rates and borrowers owe 5 times more than they borrowed!

How about sending trump to prison for his crimes against humanity and our republic!

How about ending gerrymandering!

I know Iím just a dreamer.

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Response to LittleGirl (Reply #10)

Sat Aug 6, 2022, 06:48 AM

12. But a practical Dreamer!

It can be done with a competent President and Congress. We are moving after years of stagnation and a corrupt Government.

Finally more of the media are admitting that. Some have gone from.Ē Despite failing polls,Ē to,Ē More Biden Wins!Ē

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Response to elleng (Original post)

Sat Aug 6, 2022, 06:49 AM

13. Total hogwash

Breaking the economy as a solution to inflation is bad economics. Inflation is clearly pandemic driven and has been exacerbated by the intentional energy shortages. The pandemic in 1918 caused huge spikes in the inflation rate and reversed itself as supply and demand issues were resolved. A similar pattern is occurring now with an easying of these problems as the globe continues to turn on after shutting down for 2 years. The argument that people having jobs and money to spend will cause further inflation is only true if the greed factor is not addressed. It seems we have had wage growth in the 5.5% range in last year but the cost of goods and services has risen at a much faster pace. Supply and demand account for some of it but greed and wanting to maximize profits after a down period is at play also. As energy costs continue to drop so will the cost of everything else. Energy expenses impact every aspect of our global economy and as the price oil goes up literally everything else does does also. The Ukranuan war is still a major factor in the cost of energy and good supplies. Just raising the Fed rate blindly is like hitting a nail with sledge hammer when a you really just need a regular hammer. How about also not raising rents 30% when your actually expenses have risen by less than half that amount...GREED needs to be called out as a factor here. After the 1918 pandemic ended, the inflation rate that spiked during those years reversed into negative territory. It's time for Fed to sit back and let the natural mechanisms play out and quit trying to crush the economy as means of saving the economy.

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Response to elleng (Original post)

Sat Aug 6, 2022, 08:21 AM

15. Half of these so called experts are saying the Fed is acting too slow and

should have raised interest rates sooner while the other half say the Fed raised rates too much and too fast.
Just depends on where their paycheck comes from.

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Response to elleng (Original post)

Sat Aug 6, 2022, 09:00 AM

16. another thing we seem to be forgetting..

the pandemic has done weird things to the labor supply. how many deaths were working age adults? how many with long covid have exited the labor supply? how many still haven't found adequate daycare for their kids, so dropping out?

bottom line, the labor pool has shrunken dramatically. have they taken this into account, before they slam on the brakes?

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Response to elleng (Original post)

Sat Aug 6, 2022, 10:30 AM

18. Powell's is the Arthur Burns' Fed of the 1970s

Everything has been on loose money for 10 years. Deficit Covid spending was also stimulus. Wage hikes are a stimulus. In the 1970s the Fed was way late. It took Volcker to stop inflation. When inflation was briefly 14%, he had to raise interest rates to ..... 15%.

We are now at 9%. If they do this quickly, into 2023, and get to 10% Fed funds rate, it might tame inflation quickly. Trouble is the number the Fed and economists float is 5-6%. That is insufficient. And wage growth will continue to give a kick to inflation.

So the idea that the Fed will use the tools it has and take the political heat to tame inflation is ludicrous.

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Response to elleng (Original post)

Mon Aug 8, 2022, 07:22 AM

20. Another economist expert blowing smoke out their . . . .

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