October CPI: Inflation moderates, rising at annual 7.7% over last year

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Last edited Thu Nov 10, 2022, 09:56 AM - Edit history (1)

She's updating this throughout the morning.

Yahoo Finance

October CPI: Inflation moderates, rising at annual 7.7% over last year

Alexandra Semenova · Reporter
Wed, November 9, 2022 at 4:07 PM · 1 min read

U.S. inflation eased slightly last month as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to get a grip on prices that have surged at a historic pace.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in October reflected a 7.7% increase over last year and 0.4% increase over the prior month. Economists had expected prices rose at an annual 7.9% and 0.6% month-over-month, per Bloomberg consensus estimates.

On a "core" basis, which strips out the volatile food and energy components of the report, prices rose 6.3% year-over-year and 0.3% over October.

Expectations were for a 6.5% annual increase and 0.5% monthly increase in the core CPI reading.

(This post is breaking. Please check back for updates.)

The placeholder article, from yesterday afternoon:

Yahoo Finance

October CPI preview: Inflation likely eased slightly from last month

Alexandra Semenova · Reporter
Wed, November 9, 2022 at 4:07 PM

U.S. inflation likely remained stubbornly high last month despite efforts by the Federal Reserve to get a grip on prices that have surged at a historic pace.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October is scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected the headline reading to show an accelerated monthly increase of 0.6% from 0.4% in September, driven in part by the first jump in energy prices in four months.

The broadest measure is projected to have moderated to a 7.9% rise annually, down slightly from September’s year-over-year increase of 8.2%. Core CPI, which strips out the volatile food and energy components of the measure, is projected to come in at 0.5% on a monthly basis and 6.5% over the year, little changed from 0.6% and 6.6%, respectively, last month — the highest core prints since 1982.

The Federal Reserve keeps a closer eye on "core" inflation, which offers policymakers a more focused look at inputs like housing. Headline CPI, in contrast, has moved largely in conjunction with erratic energy prices this year.

{snip}

[Yonnie3]

2. Real Earnings Summary down 0.1% for October

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.nr0.htm

REAL EARNINGS – OCTOBER 2022

All employees

Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.1 percent from September to October,
seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an
increase of 0.4 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.4 percent in the
Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U).

Real average weekly earnings decreased 0.1 percent over the month due to the change in real average
hourly earnings combined with no change in the average workweek.

Real average hourly earnings decreased 2.8 percent, seasonally adjusted, from October 2021 to October 2022. The change in real average hourly earnings combined with a decrease of 0.9 percent in the average workweek resulted in a 3.7-percent decrease in real average weekly earnings over this period.
-----snip-----

Earnings, as always, aren't keeping up with inflation.

Dow futures popped up 800 points at the CPI news

[mahatmakanejeeves]

3. From the source, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:

CPI for all items rises 0.4% in October as shelter, gasoline, and food increase

In October, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.4 percent, seasonally adjusted, and rose 7.7 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.3 percent in October (SA); up 6.3 percent over the year (NSA).

Economic News Release USDL-22-2140

Consumer Price Index Summary
Transmission of material in this release is embargoed until 8:30 a.m. (ET) Thursday, November 10, 2022

Technical information: [phone] * [e-mail] * www.bls.gov/cpi
Media contact: [phone] * [e-mail]

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX - OCTOBER 2022

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 7.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter contributed over half of the monthly all items increase, with the indexes for gasoline and food also increasing. The energy index increased 1.8 percent over the month as the gasoline index and the electricity index rose, but the natural gas index decreased. The food index increased 0.6 percent over the month with the food at home index rising 0.4 percent.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in October, after rising 0.6 percent in September. The indexes for shelter, motor vehicle insurance, recreation, new vehicles, and personal care were among those that increased over the month. Indexes which declined in October included the used cars and trucks, medical care, apparel, and airline fares indexes.

The all items index increased 7.7 percent for the 12 months ending October, this was the smallest 12-month increase since the period ending January 2022. The all items less food and energy index rose 6.3 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index increased 17.6 percent for the 12 months ending October, and the food index increased 10.9 percent over the last year; all of these increases were smaller than for the period ending September. er the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.3 percent in October (SA); up 6.3 percent over the year (NSA).

{snip}

Contact Information

For additional information about the CPI visit www.bls.gov/cpi or contact the CPI Information and Analysis Section at 202-691-7000 or [e-mail].

For additional information on seasonal adjustment in the CPI visit www.bls.gov/cpi/seasonal-adjustment/home.htm or contact the CPI seasonal adjustment section at 202-691-6968 or [e-mail].

If you are deaf, hard of hearing, or have a speech disability, please dial 7-1-1 to access telecommunications relay services.

{snip}

[progree]

4. A couple CPI links and real average hourly earnings link...

CPI: October: +0.4%, 12 months: +7.7%

CORE CPI: October: +0.3%, 12 months: +6.3%

(I like to make a summary line so I don't have to weed it out of paragraphs).

CPI: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0&output_view=pct_1mth

CORE CPI: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E&output_view=pct_1mth

Real average hourly earnings of production and non-supervisory workers ("real" means inflation-adjusted in BLS-Speak)
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000032&output_view=pct_1mth
Darn, its down 0.1% in October after 3 months of gains.