S&P 500 closed Friday 1/16 at 6940, down 0.1% # Small cap stocks booming.# Trump threatening tariffs wrt Greenland

[progree]

This discussion thread is pinned.

Last edited Fri Jan 16, 2026, 09:21 PM - Edit history (237)

More on the headline: He's threatening to raise tariffs against countries that are opposing U.S. acquisition of Greenland

Not room enough in the headline, but the article about Treasury yield inertia is interesting considering all the admin and world policy turmoil.

In the future I will only be doing these twice a week: Tuesday and Friday, unless it's really interesting.

Martin Luther King Jr. Day Monday January 19 - markets will be closed, including bond markets

10 Year TREASURY YIELD 4.23 on 1/16 up 0.07 for the day (ugh). It was 4.19% on Friday 12/12 (It local-bottomed out at 3.95% 10/22/25, its lowest point since April.)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ETNX/

Bitcoin: $95,401 @ 533p ET 1/16/26, almost exactly same as Tuesday. It recently exceeded at last it's end of year 2024 closing level, It was $87,453 Friday 12/26, It's still in bear market territory, down more than 20% from it's $126,000+ all-time high in October (20% down from $126,000 is $100,800) (Cryptocurrencies trade 24/7) https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/

Next Fed rate decision: January 28
CME FedWatch tool (probabilities of various Fed interest rate moves) 1/16: 5.0% chance of a rate cut)
. . . https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

Market news of the day: https://finance.yahoo.com/

How to find the latest Yahoo Finance "stock market today" report if it's not at the finance.yahoo page (note that the headline displayed there does not include the "Stock Market Today" words): click on
https://www.google.com/search?q=%22stock+market+today%22+site%3Afinance.yahoo.com&oq=%22stock+market+today%22+site%3Afinance.yahoo.com

If the link doesn't work for you,
Google: "stock market today" site:finance.yahoo.com


Stock Market Today - first briefly Wednesday's highlights, and then Thursday's, and Finally Friday's

Wednesday January 14 --

Looks like I didn't save the "Stock Market Today" article link or even look at it. But today the PPI, the Producer Price Index was released, as well as Retail Sales. See the Calendar section below for those.

Thursday January 15 --
Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq rise as TSMC boosts AI hopes, bank stocks rally, Yahoo Finance, 1/15/26
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-rise-as-tsmc-boosts-ai-hopes-bank-stocks-rally-195049176.html

Friday January 16 --
Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq slip, chip stocks rise as Wall Street ends volatile week lower
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-slip-chip-stocks-rise-as-wall-street-ends-volatile-week-lower-210151640.html

US stocks were little changed on Friday despite growing uncertainty over the next Fed chair, while strong bank earnings and ongoing geopolitical tensions capped a volatile week.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell below the flat line, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) was little changed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) declined slightly, with all three major averages losing less than 1% for the week.

The Russell 2000 (^RUT) closed at a record high as the small-cap index extended year-to-date gains to 8%.

Stocks gave up earlier gains on Friday after President Trump expressed fresh reluctance to name Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair ((aroud 10:30 A.M ET -progree)), fueling speculation that the central bank may not be as dovish as the market expected once Jerome Powell steps down in May. ((in recent context, "dovish" means more inclined to lower interest rates. As Fed chair, Hassett was expected to push for interest rate reductions, perhaps large ones -progree))

"I actually want to keep you where you are, if you want to know the truth," he told Hassett at a White House event.

Wall Street is regrouping after a switchback week, marked by escalating Iran tensions, a dispute over Greenland, and a criminal probe risking the Federal Reserve’s independence — all with Trump behind them. Investors have a long weekend to digest those events, as stock and bond markets are closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day.

TSMC (TSM) and Nvidia (NVDA) rose, thanks in part to a US-Taiwan trade deal that promises a $250 billion boost to American chip and tech manufacturing. On Thursday, shares in TSMC popped following a strong quarterly report that revived AI enthusiasm to buoy related stocks more widely.

Shares of regional banks such as PNC (PNC) and Regions Financial (RF) rose on the heels of quarterly results following strong performance from Wall Street majors. Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS) shares rose Thursday after posting profit gains, giving a lift to financial stocks.

Meanwhile, silver (SI=F) fell as the threat of US tariffs eased, but prices were still up more than 15% for the week after a long-lived blistering rally for precious metals.

------- SCROLLING DOWN THE PAGE -------

There are a lot more articles on the page than I've shown, I only picked ones I find interesting

quote from an article, "Semiconductor stocks ended the week with gains, but software names were hit over the threat of AI on their businesses."

'Structure trend of AI' will power stocks: UBS

The AI tech trade is intact, and expected to power stocks this year, say UBS strategists.

Small-cap stocks on track for record high. Is it time to get on board?

Year to date, the Russell 2000 has gained 8.4%, while the S&P 500 large-cap index is up 1.6%.[/e]
. . . "I think that leadership shift continues, and it's going to be driven by the fact that small-cap earnings, which have been in an earnings recession for two years and change, are actually just at the beginning of taking off," Gannon said.
"The opportunity in small caps is quite large," he added, "and typically when you see small caps begin to outperform, it can last over a decade. So get on board."

Fed’s Bowman sees risks to job market, says Fed 'should be ready' to cut rates

. . . She said the recent drop in job openings and softness in hiring ( https://finance.yahoo.com/news/job-openings-in-november-fall-to-71-million-missing-forecasts-as-hiring-slows-153222780.html ) , as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, could translate to a larger increase in unemployment.

Walmart overhauls executive ranks, John Furner set to take CEO role at month's end

Trump says he may use tariffs in pursuit of Greenland

Homebuilder sentiment unexpectedly declines as affordability 'takes a toll'

Spotify will net an eye-popping amount of money by raising prices again (sigh)

China’s $1.2 trillion windfall quietly seeps into global markets

Bloomberg reports: A record trade surplus racked up by China is washing up around the world, as export earnings that once ended up in state coffers instead fund massive private purchases of overseas securities and business expansion abroad. . . .

The US Treasury Market’s Inertia Is Nearing Historic Levels

The 10-year Treasury note’s yield is headed for a fifth straight week of minimal change, rivaling its longest stretch of inertia in the past two decades.

Scroll down to see earlier in the day reports

And scroll down to the bottom of this post to look at the amazing Oil price graph

------ OTHER ARTICLES ----------
US manufacturing output unexpectedly increases in December, Reuters, 1/16/26
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-december-industrial-production-rises-142129670.html

See Reply #1 to this thread for reports prior to December 23

================================

CALENDAR

Recent and Coming Up, Reports (I'm also keeping January 12 and later ones for now, I put the older ones in reply #1
https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar

The government reports are all seasonally adjusted, as are most, if not all, of the non-government reports the media covers, so please don't post comments about how the numbers look good (or not as bad as expected) only because of Christmas season hires or Christmas shopping -- seasonal factors like that have been adjusted for

Monday Jan 12

# Nothing

Tuesday Jan 13

# CPI Consumer Price Index - The headline (all items) number was as expected: December (over November): +0.3%, Year-over-year: +2.7%
The Core measure (which excludes food and energy) was a 0.1 percentage points below expectations: December (over November): +0.2%, Year-over-year: 2.6%. Note that the one-month numbers when annualized (3.6% and 2.4%) are over the Fed's 2.0% target, as are both year-over-year numbers.
LBN thread: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143597741

# New home sales

# Budget deficit

# NFIB optimism index

Wednesday Jan 14

# Retail sales for November (delayed report) (KEEP IN MIND THESE ARE NOT INFLATION-ADJUSTED but they are seasonally adjusted)
Retail sales rose a better-than-expected 0.6% in November as the holiday season kicked into gear (Source says Sept was +0.1%, Oct. was -0.1%, also 12 months: +3.3%, AP, 1/14/26 == https://finance.yahoo.com/news/retail-sales-rose-better-expected-134204407.html
MahatmaKaneJeeves LBN Thread: Wholesale inflation was softer than expected, RETAIL SALES moved higher in November, 1/14/26 == https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143598490
. . . [] From the Source: https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html -> https://www.census.gov/retail/sales.html :
. . . [] Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade and Food Services (MARTSMPCSM44X72USN), Not Seasonally Adjusted: -0.8% == https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MARTSMPCSM44X72USN
. . . [] Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade and Food Services (MARTSMPCSM44X72USS), Seasonally Adjusted: +0.6% (Sept was +0.1%, Oct. was -0.1%, ) == https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MARTSMPCSM44X72USS
. Very strange that in November, the seasonal adjustment process revised the November over October from -0.8% to +0.6%. October over September got seaonally revised from +4.9% to -0.1%

# PPI (Producer Price Index) for November (delayed report)
PPI for November +0.2% (Oct was +0.1%), 12 months: +3.0% ## CORE excluding food & energy: 0.0%, according to CNBC
CORE excluding food, energy and trade services: +0.2% (was +0.7% in October) 12 months: +3.5%, 1/14/26
. MahatmaKaneJeeves LBN Thread: Wholesale inflation was softer than expected, retail sales moved higher in November, 1/14/26 == https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143598490
. Ultimate Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

# Existing home sales (delayed report)


Thursday Jan 15

# Unemployment insurance claims
. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims - Week Ending January 10: 198,000, down 9,000.
. . Note: Not Seasonally Adjusted: 330,684, Seasonally Adjusted: 198,000, quite a big seasonal adjustment
. Continuing Claims (week ending Jan 3): 1,884,000, down 19,000, 1/15/26
https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/OPA/newsreleases/ui-claims/20260098.pdf
. Reuters - good article, they say the low seasonally adjusted initial claims level might be dues to problem with seasonal adjustment. They also mention the NSA number above (330,684)
. . https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-weekly-jobless-claims-unexpectedly-fall-amid-seasonal-adjustment-challenges-2026-01-15/

# Import prices

# Empire state and Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing surveys

Friday Jan 16

# Industrial production and capacity utilization - US manufacturing output unexpectedly increases in December, Reuters, 1/16/26
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-december-industrial-production-rises-142129670.html


Friday Jan 23 - way out in the future

# PCE inflation - the Fed's favorite inflation gauge. So the Fed will have this report before their January 28 rate decision, assuming no government shutdowns


Calendar as a ribbon, January 12-Jan 16: #MON(12)-nada #TUE(13): CPI, New home sales, budget deficit, NFIB optimism index #WED(14) Retail sales for November, PPI for November, Existing home sales, #THU(15) UIC, Import prices, Empire state and Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing surveys, ##FRI(16) Industrial production and capacity utilization ###FRI(23) PCE inflation ### Next FOMC rate setting meeting: 1/28 ## https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar

Revised release dates for Bureau of Labor Statistics reports: https://www.bls.gov/bls/2025-lapse-revised-release-dates.htm

BEA.GOV news release schedule (they produce reports on the GDP, Retail Sales, PCE Inflation (the Fed's favorite inflation gauge), and Personal Consumption and Income: https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule

=============================================
The S&P 500 closed Friday January 16 at 6940, down 0.1% for the day,
and up 20.0% from the 5783 election day closing level,
and up 15.7% from the inauguration eve closing level,
and up 18.0% since the December 31, 2024 close
and up 1.4% Year-To-Date (since the December 31, 2025 close)

S&P 500
# Election day close (11/5/24) 5783
# Last close before inauguration day: (1/17/25): 5997
# 2024 year-end close (12/31/24): 5882
# Trump II era low point (going all the way back to election day Nov5): 4983 on April 8
# October 28 all-time-high: 6890.90, surpassed by December 24's all-time high of 6932.00

# Several market indexes: https://finance.yahoo.com/
# S&P 500: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/


Bitcoin
Bitcoin ended 2024 at $93,429. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/
Bitcoin's all-time interday high: 126,198 on Oct. 6
Bitcoin's all-time closing high: 124,753 on Oct 6. (that's what Yahoo Finance shows, but cryptocurrencies trade 24/7)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history/

========================================================

I'm not a fan of the DOW as it is a cherry-picked collection of just 30 stocks that are price-weighted, which is silly. It's as asinine as judging consumer price inflation by picking 30 blue chip consumer items, and weighting them according to their prices. But since there is an automatically updating embedded graphic, here it is. It takes several, like 6 hours, after the close for it to update, like about 10 PM EDT.
(If it still isn't updated, try right-clicking on it and opening in a new tab. #OR# click on https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/ ).

The Dow closed Thursday at 49,442, and it closed Friday at 49,359, a drop of 0.2% (83 points) for the day

https://finance.yahoo.com/
DOW: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/
. . . . . . https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/history/

DOW
# Election day close (11/5/24) 42,222
# Last close before inauguration day: (1/17/25): 43,488
# 2024 year-end close (12/31/24): 42,544

DJIA means Dow Jones Industrials Average. It takes about 6 hours after the close to update, so check it after 10 PM EDT. Sometimes it takes a couple days (sigh)



I don't have an embeddable graph for the S&P 500, unfortunately, but to see its graph, click on https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/

While I'm at it, I might as well show Oil and the Dollar:

Crude Oil


US Dollar Index (DX-Y.NYB)


If you see a tiny graphics square above and no graph, right click on the square and choose "load image". There should be a total of 3 graphs. And remember that it typically takes about 6 hours after the close before these graphs update.
🚨 ❤️ 😬! 😱 < - - emoticon library for future uses

[progree]

1. Some prior reports

Last edited Fri Jan 16, 2026, 08:58 PM - Edit history (4)

Most Recent First (reverse chronological order)

FRIDAY, JANUARY 9

# Big BLS jobs report : +50,000 non-farm payroll jobs, unemployment rate ticked down from 4.5% to 4.4%. A LOT more to this story, for example, thanks to downward revisions of October and November, there are actually 26k fewer non-farm payroll jobs than were reported in the previous (December 16) report. AND , didya know, in December actual (meaning not-seasonally adjusted) jobs fell by 192,000, but seasonal adjustment turned that to a positive 50,000? Could YOU use a seasonal adjustment like that? AND, President literal asswipe posted several jobs numbers 12 hours before the 8:30 AM ET release time (did you know that they show the president and the entire Council of Economic Advisers the jobs report the evening before it is released?). AND there is probably a couple other things to say, I'll have to review the thread...
the LBN thread link, full of information, is https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143595598

# Consumer Sentiment - a slight improvement but graph still looks awful
https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
GRAPH: https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/files/chicsr.pdf

THURSDAY JANUARY 8

# Unemployment insurance claims: 208,000, an 8,000 increase over last week

# Q3 Productivity - I haven't looked at it, but from a headline I saw, it's a big jump thanks to the 4.3% Q3 GDP (annualized rate) reported in December,

WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 7

# ADP private payroll employment, +41,000 PRIVATE payroll jobs (by the way, in comparison the BLS jobs report that came out Friday 1/9, with the headline +50,000 jobs number, had a private payroll jobs increase of +37,000, a very unusally close match to the ADP number). (ADP has payroll data for about 20% of the private work force, and somehow they estimate the other 80%)
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143594195
https://adpemploymentreport.com/

# ISM Services,

# JOLTS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, - kinda bad report. lowest job openings in over a year for one thing. The number of job openings fell in November, while the hiring rate was a paltry 3.2%. There were 1.1 unemployed people for every available job, the highest level since early 2021. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/layoff-plans-for-december-hit-lowest-monthly-level-since-2024-in-positive-sign-challenger-says-131808125.html (the article is almost all about the Challenger, Gray, and Christmas report, but the above blurb is in reference to the JOLTS report)


TUESDAY, JANUARY 6

* S&P Services PMI -- shows sector grew at slowest pace in 8 months in December
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-crosses-49000-sp-500-jumps-to-new-high-in-record-setting-start-to-year-194907643.html
(and scroll down that page)

MONDAY, JANUARY 5

* ISM Manufacturing -- US Factory Malaise Continues as Gauge Drops to One-Year Low, Bloomberg 1/5/26
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-factory-malaise-continues-gauge-152835595.html
head count shrinks for 11th straight month. (weren't tariffs supposed to fix that?)


FRIDAY, JANUARY 2

* S&P Manufacturing - I haven't seen the report

WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 31

* Weekly unemployment insurance claims, 199,000. It was 214,000 in last week's report
https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/OPA/newsreleases/ui-claims/20251646.pdf

TUESDAY DECEMBER 30

* Case-Shiller home prices index - I saw a headline: home prices up for a 3rd straight month, and up 1.4% since October 2024


MONDAY DECEMBER 29

* Pending home sales - I saw a headline: up 3.35% from November and up 2.6% year-over-year (non-govt, National Association of Realtors)


WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 24

* Weekly unemployment insurance claims - 224,000 was reported December 18. 214,000 was reported today, December 24, a drop of 10,000 . But continuing claims rose by 38,000 to 1.92 million (govt)

TUESDAY DECEMBER 23

* GDP Q3 first estimate (delayed report, normally released late September). (govt) -- it came in at a 4.3% annualized rate, well above the 3.3% rate economists were expecting. Various factors cited in media: an acceleration of EV purchases prior to the Sept 30 expiration of tax credits. A lot of spending by big tech companies on AI (investment spending boosts the GDP number). A substantial rise in exports (up 8.8% annualized rate) and a small drop in imports -- both these boost the GDP number, Federal spending also played a sizable role, a reflection of the large uptick in defense spending as well as buyouts for federal workers. Also, it reflects the "K-shaped" economy -- higher-income people flush with growing stock market wealth increased their spending, while lesser-income people struggled with higher prices and a weakening job market.
LBN thread: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143587157 ## From the source: https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/gross-domestic-product-3rd-quarter-2025-initial-estimate-and-corporate-profits

* Consumer Confidence (Conference Board, non-govt) - result: the 5th straight month of decline. The worst since April, and at about the same level as seen in the 2020 pandemic year. Except there is no microbe-driven pandemic, it's all Trumpdemic now. Consumers’ assessments of their current economic situation tumbled 9.5 points to 116.8.
LBN thread (see graph in reply #2) https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143587258

* Durable goods orders - I haven't looked at yet

* Industrial production and capacity utilization - I haven't looked at yet


FRIDAY DECEMBER 19

* Existing home sales (non-govt) - I haven't looked at yet

* Consumer Sentiment final (non-govt) - here's an article:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/consumer-sentiment-shows-substantial-decline-from-last-year-amid-higher-prices-tough-job-market-160618145.html

THUR DECEMBER 18:

* Weekly unemployment insurance claims for the week ending Dec 13 (it was 236,000 for the week ending Dec 6) - In the week ending December 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 224,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 236,000 to 237,000. (govt)

* Consumer price index for November (govt) (note: the one for October was cancelled. The November one was originally scheduled for December 10 before the Fed's rate-setting meeting, but alas was delayed until 8 days after the meeting) - result: 2.7% year-over-year, a cooling from the 3.0% year-over-year reported in the September report, and a 0.2% increase over the last 2 months. LBN thread: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143584377


TUE DECEMBER 16:

* The long-delayed big Jobs report (featuring the headline non-farm payroll jobs and unemployment rate) (govt). Expected: +50,000 jobs in November and 4.5% unemployment rate. Actual: -105,000 in October and +64,000 in November for a net drop of jobs over these 2 months of 41,000. Nonfarm payroll jobs averaged only 17k/month over the last 7 months and 22k over the last 3 months. These are seasonally adjusted numbers. The raw numbers (i.e. not seasonally adjusted numbers) are 204k/month and 416k/month respectively. And the unemployment rate is 4.6% in November, up from 4.4% in September. LBN thread: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143583215

There was not, and never will be a separate October jobs report. The payroll stuff Establishment survey was taken and will be included in the November report (as it was in the Decmber 16 report). The household survey that produces the unemployment rate was not done in October, and so the October unemployment rate will be a blank in the records forever.

More details: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143583215#post19

The LBN thread: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143583215 .

Please disregard all the comments about "Christmas hires" and "seasonal hires" - those have been adjusted for.

TUE DECEMBER 16 Continued:

There's another jobs report that came out -- the ADP report on PRIVATE sector payrolls:
16,250 private jobs/week for 4 weeks ending 11/29/25 (so roughly +65,000 private sector jobs in the month of November)
LBN thread: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143583228
Again, ignore the comment about seasonal hiring. The ADP reports seasonally adjusted numbers
Also realize that The ADP numbers cover only about 20% of the nation's private workforce. They have to estimate the other 80%.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=3506135

The retail sales report that came out December 16: Sept: +0.1% and October: +0.0%. Those are nominal dollar increases. After adjusting for inflation, which was 0.3% month-over-month in September, and an unknown amount in October, those are declines of real spending of 0.2% and 0.3%, assuming that October also comes in at 0.3% month-over-month inflation. Yes, they are seasonally adjusted.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/retail-sales-flat-in-october-as-uncertainty-tempers-consumer-spending/ar-AA1SsP9b

S&P flash U.S. services and manufacturing PMI's (non-govt) - I haven't looked at this yet

=================================================================

General Comments

Please don't believe the fabrication that Fed Chair Powell said, or implied, that the jobs numbers are "fudged". He did not. The person posting that claim included no excerpt that one can read to judge what exactly he said, and that was deliberate. When confronted, that person expressed some other reasons (again without supporting information) for believing the numbers are fudged. That may be so, But that does not excuse very deliberately misleading one's fellow progressives about what Powell said.


Please don't believe reports that 1 million or 1.1 million jobs were lost in 2025 so far, implying these are net job losses (jobs lost minus jobs gained). This is based on Challenger, Gray, and Christmas that reported 1,170,821 job cuts were ANNOUNCED. And they are just layoff announcements, and they are not net of hiring announcements or any actual hiring. As the monthly JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) shows, there are a lot of layoffs (and voluntary leavings of jobs) and a lot of hiring every month. The excuse that media misreports the Challenger report too is not an excuse for deliberately misleading one's fellow progressives, after being presented with the information about what the Challenger etc. report actually said.

The media mis-reports a lot of things like Hillary's email and Hunter Biden's laptop with cherry-picked misleading factoids, but that is never an excuse for echoing those reports here after being made aware of the factual record.


There's another myth that's spreading: that the new head of the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) is a Trump appointee, E.J. Antoni. However, his nomination was withdrawn due to too many controversies.

The current head is Acting Commissioner, William J. Wiatrowski, who has served in this role twice previously, the first time from January 2017 to March 2019, and the second time from March 2023 to January 2024
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureau_of_Labor_Statistics

[progree]

2. Kicking: update for Thurs. March 6 close. The "Trump Trade" is back underwater after losing 1.8% for the day (S&P 500)

See OP for the statistics.

[progree]

3. Kicking: Update: S&P 500 closed Friday at 5770, up 0.5% for the day but still below the election day close

See OP for details

[progree]

4. Update: S&P 500 closed Monday 3/10 at 5615, down 2.7% for the day and 2.9% below the election day close

see OP for details.

[progree]

5. Update: S&P 500 closed Tuesday 3/11 at 5572, down 0.8% for the day, briefly fell into correction territory

Details in OP.

[progree]

6. S&P 500 closed Wednesday 3/12 at 5599, up 0.5% for the day, but down 3.2% since election day

See OP for details, and a graph of the DOW.

[progree]

7. Update: S&P 500 closed Thursday at 5522, down 1.4% for the day, and MORE THAN 10% down from the all-time high

Details in the OP.

[progree]

8. Update: S&P 500 closed Friday at 5639, up 2.1% for the day, and down 2.5% since election day

Details in the OP.

[progree]

9. Update: S&P 500 closed Monday at 5675, up 0.6% for the day, and down 1.9% since election day

Details in OP.

[progree]

10. Update: S&P 500 closed Tuesday at 5615, down 1.1% for the day, and down 2.9% since election day

Details in OP.

[progree]

11. S&P 500 closed Tuesday 3/25 at 5777, up 0.2% for the day, down 0.1% since election day, down 6.0% from ATH

Details in OP. ATH is All Time High. I don't kick this every market day, but it's been several days, and it's gotten well down on the listings, so I decided to kick it. It looks like the Trump slump since election day is about at an end, only 0.1% down since election day, and with 3 straight market days of gains. Since inauguration day, its down 3.7%.

[progree]

12. S&P 500 closed Wednesday 4/02 at 5671, up 0.7% for the day, down 1.9% since election day, down 7.7% from ATH

ATH is All Time High. Details in OP including more comparisons like down 5.4% since pre-inauguration day, and down 3.6% year-to-date.

I don't kick this every market day, but it's been several days, and it's gotten well down on the listings, so I decided to kick it. Note this closing is moments before the announcement of "Liberation Day" tariffs, so it's a good benchmark to compare to what follows in the next few days.

[Arizona78]

13. We're nearing the top.

Trump’s bill could soon trigger a repo market crisis and push America and much of the world—toward bankruptcy. Something massive is on the horizon. Get ready.

[Arizona78]

14. Krugman

Paul Krugman is deeply concerned about the uncontrolled rise in debt, which could sharply push up interest rates leading to bankruptcy.

https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/trumps-big-beautiful-debt-bomb

[Hugin]

15. Thanks for your updates in this thread, progree.

I look at it often.

[progree]

16. And thanks, I appreciate that 😊 And thanks for pinning /nt

[Hugin]

17. I'm not seeing much financial ink out there on the dump...

Crypto has taken over the last week or so. BTC $120K to ~ $97K.

[progree]

18. Me neither, until it broke the 20% down threshold to becoming a bear market

I'm seeing that proclaimed in a couple of articles in the yahoo.finance.com page today.

It's all-time high in October was over $126,000. Right now as I post this, it's 96,277, down 23.6%

I've been reporting Bitcoin near the top of my OP each time I update anything, along with the 10-year Treasury yield. I'm not sure why, but a lot of people are interested in it. Actually, it's kind of against my "religion", given the amount of electricity and water that bitcoin "miners" consume. I read recently that just ONE Bitcoin transaction uses as much electricity as does the average U.S. household over 38 days (more than a month!)

I might buy the Bitcoin evangelists' argument that bitcoin's high value (still) is that they keep the bitcoin supply very limited. But there are all kinds of new cryptocurrencies being created and eventually the amount of money available from people willing to support this ever-expanding ocean of speculative crypto-investments will reach a peak. (And besides, rarity doesn't guarantee high value).

[Hugin]

19. "rarity doesn't guarantee high value"...

If I had a nickel for every time I’d said that.

I am far from liking anything about crypto. I try to avoid things that are easy to buy and difficult to sell. I do monitor it, tho. Due to its position in the techbro’s DOW -> AI -> Crypto financial ouroboros.