Remember The Temperature Spiral? Have You Seen The One That Goes Through 2100 AD?

[hatrack]

The temperature spiral that took the world by storm has an update. If you think the heat is on in our current climate, you ain’t seen nothing yet. To recap, University of Reading climate scientist Ed Hawkins wrecked the internet a few weeks ago with a revolutionary new way to look at global temperatures. Using a circular graph of every year’s monthly temperatures and animating it, Hawkins’ image showed planetary heat spiraling closer to the 2°C threshold in a way no bar or line graph could do.



His tweet with the original graphic has been shared 15,000 times and it’s been dubbed the most compelling climate visualization ever made (sorry, landmarked Keeling Curve). The spiral’s popularity can be attributed in part to its hypnotic nature and the visceral way it shows the present predicament of climate change.

EDIT

“Like a lot of people, I found Ed Hawkins' temperature animation very compelling because it details observed warming from 1850 to present in a novel way,” U.S. Geological Survey scientist Jay Alder said. “His graphic sets the context for looking at projections from climate models.” So Alder used climate projections and stretched the spiral to its logical conclusion in 2100 when most climate model projections end. Using our current carbon emissions trends, it shows that things could get out of hand pretty quickly.

The world has been on the edge of the 1.5°C threshold — the amount of warming above pre-industrial levels that could sink many small island states permanently — this winter and early spring thanks to climate change and a strong El Niño. If the world continues on its current carbon emissions trend, it could essentially pass that threshold permanently in about a decade. The 2°C threshold — a planetary “safe” threshold enshrined in the Paris Agreement — will likely be in the rearview mirror by the early 2040s as temperatures spiral ever higher. By 2100, every month is projected to be 5°C (9°F) warmer than it was compared to pre-industrial levels.

EDIT

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/temperature-spiral-update-20399

[gordianot]

1. Of all the problems we face this is number 1.

People will have to die in the street before this gets the real attention it deserves. It is happening now they do not recognize it yet.

[mountain grammy]

2. My oldest grandaughter was born in 2000

and 4 more after that. The impact this will have on their lives and others going forward is terrifying indeed.

[OKIsItJustMe]

3. “…in a way no bar or line graph could do…”

I honestly don’t understand this. For me, this is quite dramatic:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/

[hatrack]

4. Don't you see??!? It MOVES!! It . . . DOES STUFF!! It GOES ROUND AND ROUND!!

Also, it's shinier than your graph.

[OKIsItJustMe]

10. Which means I cannot focus on the data

It’s OK. I realize I’m a mutant.

I honestly did not understand what was so jaw-dropping revolutionary about the original graph.

Maybe it’s just that I’ve been paying attention too long…

[Hydra]

5. This is actually pretty conservative

The previous spiral shows an even more dangerous picture- that the feedback loop has already started and we'll be above 5C in less than 10 years.

[NoMoreRepugs]

7. agree 100% - the acceleration of the problem is so dramatic I'm not sure

that if the TRUTH were told there would not be widespread panic

[GliderGuider]

8. There would be no panic.

People would simply refuse to believe it. Like they already do. It would be like trying to convince someone you knew when they were going to die. Exactly like that, as a matter of fact. The denial is a Terror Management defense.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terror_management_theory

[NickB79]

9. Some of us are already panicking

When my wife can't understand why I'm spending every free hour I have converting more and more yard into vegetable gardens, pollinator gardens, chicken coops, fish ponds and orchards, when I'm exhausted after working 3am-1pm but still dive right back to the backyard, why I'm growing and giving away for almost nothing thousands of fruit trees and native perennials for pollinators on Craigslist, that's me panicking, only I'm directing that terror in a fashion that doesn't end with me becoming suicidal.

[mahina]

19. Thank you

[FBaggins]

11. Actually, I'd say just the opposite.

Warming to date is supposed to be just under one degree Celsius... yet this display shows closer to double that amount.

[OKIsItJustMe]

12. This may help…

https://www.usgs.gov/media/images/simulated-global-temperature-change-0

[font face=Serif][font size=5]Simulated global temperature change[/font]

[font size=4](Animated graph goes here…)[/font]

[font size=3]This animated spiral portrays the simulated changes in the global averaged monthly air temperature from 1850 through 2100 relative to the 1850 - 1900 average. The temperature data are from Community Climate System (CCSM4) global climate model maintained by the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The simulation is for the IPCC Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emission scenario. RCP8.5 is the most aggressive scenario in which green house gases continue to rise unchecked through the end of the century, leading to an equivalent of about 1370 ppm CO₂, which is roughly four times the concentration at present. The CCSM4 simulation is part of the 5^th Climate Model Intercomparison Program (CMIP5) and the data can be downloaded at https://pcmdi.llnl.gov/projects/cmip5/. The 21^st century animations are an extension of the graphic (http://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/2016/spiralling-global-temperatures/) for the 1850-2010 observed air temperature created by E. Hawkins at Reading University, UK.

Email [e-mail] for questions, comments or suggestions about the temperature spiral.
[/font][/font]

Compare this to the source of the graph I cited:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/

…

Line plot of global mean land-ocean temperature index, 1880 to present, with the base period 1951-1980. …

(The animated spiral is relative to the 1850-1900 average.)

[LouisvilleDem]

17. That explains a great deal

They are using the RCP8.5 emission scenario, which is pretty hard to justify. Given that observed temperatures have been lower than even the RCP4.5 emission scenario, there is simply no empirical support for believing that RCP8.5 is an accurate portrayal of what things will look like.

[Hydra]

13. That's what's so scary

The target number is half of actual. The actual is jumping above the dreaded 2C and rapidly rising, even just this year. We may be at 3 next year and no arctic ice this summer.

[LouisvilleDem]

16. What do you mean by 'actual'?

I don't see any observed temperature increase beyond 2C within the instrumental record.

[Stonepounder]

6. We are killing ourselves and refuse to recognize it.

Science has pretty much proven that apex predators don't survive as a species very long (geologically speaking). And we are proving it once again. Between global warming, chemically poisoning our water supply, killing off the bees, acidifying the oceans, draining the aquifers, and so on, it appears to me that we are looking at a global collapse of our civilization in the not too distant future. I'm glad I probably won't be around to see it, but I worry about my grandkids and great grandkids.

[Delphinus]

14. I had to

look up apex predator to understand what you meant; I had a clue, but wanted to make sure. Wikipedia isn't even listing humans as that, but I think it's pretty clear it is us.

[Lodestar]

15. It seems a very linear projection though.

I'm sure there's more than one set of possibilities, not that any of them
would necessarily be better. But things are generally less predictable
than we'd like.

[GliderGuider]

18. That's the problem with projections to 2100

We don't know enough about physics or psychology to make any more than the vaguest of guesses.