Despite Some Rain Relief, CA Still In Year 6 Of Drought; 50% Chance Of Mead Cutbacks In 2017
For the Colorado River, this combined warming and movement of clouds northward has produced a 16-year-long drought. Hotter average seasons result in greater rates of evaporation. So even if rainfall averages remain, grounds, lands and rivers are drier. But the Hadley Cell’s expansion has also moved rain bearing weather systems north.
It’s a compounding drying influence that has pushed Lake Mead, the nation’s largest reservoir, to record low levels. And states dependent on the great river’s water supply for farming and industry are now involved in negotiations to avert a water crisis in 2018. Forecasts predict a 50 percent possibility that Lake Mead’s water levels will fall below its mandatory rationing line. Such an event would result in water cut-offs for Arizona and Nevada.
In an attempt to prevent crisis in the coming months, California and other Colorado River states are attempting to cut water consumption now. Such a planned regional belt-tightening would help to avert conflict over the Colorado River’s dwindling stores and smooth out any losses over time. But, sadly, climate conditions are only likely to continue to worsen — increasing the risk of mandatory rationing for 2019, 2020 and beyond.
In California, a five-year-long drought that is the worst in state history now threatens to enter its 6th year. Rains during 2016 did help to reduce the severity of drought conditions for some parts of the state. And during recent days, a series of Pacific storms has helped to deliver moisture to some northern and central regions. However, with record warmth settling in over the Arctic and with a La Nina developing in the Pacific, long range forecasts indicate a high risk that California will experience a warm, dry winter. Such predicted conditions would result in a persistence of the present drought with continued impacts to the state’s forests and agriculture.
EDIT
https://robertscribbler.com/2016/10/27/california-drought-to-enter-6th-year-colorado-river-states-struggle-to-avert-water-crisis-southeast-drought-worsens/#comments