Environment & Energy
Related: About this forumIn Warmer World, Rapid Intensifications Of Tropical Storms Will Gain Both Speed & Power
Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1, and last years season was devastating for the U.S. Damage from Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria cost the U.S. $267 billion. All three hurricanes went through a rapid intensification (RI) cycle, meaning the strongest winds within the storm increased by at least 30 knots (about 35 mph) in 24 hours. Harvey jumped from a Category 2 to a Category 4 just before its first landfall. Marias intensification was more dramatic, going from a Category 1 to a Category 5. This type of intensification is common in major hurricanes, as 79 percent of major tropical cyclones globally go through at least one cycle of rapid intensification.
We consulted with Phil Klotzbach of the Colorado State Tropical Meteorology Project to examine the historic number of Atlantic named storms that have undergone rapid intensification and to acknowledge limitations in detection. As a result, we are using two starting points for this weeks analysis. The first is 1950, a few years after reconnaissance aircraft analyses began. The second is 1980, a year after regular satellite analyses were available. These data show the active period of the 1950s and 1960s, then a lull, followed by a bigger spike, with the influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) driving the lower values in the 1970s and 1980s. In a further analysis, one study earlier this year found an increase in rapid intensification from 1986-2015 tied to warming water east of the Caribbean Sea. While the study suggests the AMO is the primary influence, there has also been a net ocean warming on top of that cycle.
As the world continues to warm from the increase in greenhouse gases, the coming decades are likely to bring hurricanes that intensify even more rapidly. In an extreme example from todays climate, one study indicated that 60 knots (70 mph) of intensification in 24 hours only happens about once a century. With no change in the rate of greenhouse gas emissions, that same extreme intensification rate could happen once every five to 10 years by 2100.
Rapid intensification, especially in the last 24 hours before landfall, leaves people less time to prepare for a hurricanes impacts. And even people who know a storm is coming may not be ready for how much more intense the storm is when it arrives. For example, less than 24 hours before landfall in Dominica, Maria was forecast to hit the island as a low end Category 3 storm, and it actually made landfall as a Category 5. The science is advancing on the effects of climate change on hurricanes, and even if uncertainties remain, there are already things we do know. A warming climate intensifies the water cycle, so extreme rainfall is getting heavier. Global sea level rise means that storm surges will continue to be higher and extend farther inland, affecting many coastal populations, especially on the East and Gulf Coasts. Also, we are breaking many records in the Atlantic and globally.
EDIT
http://www.climatecentral.org/gallery/graphics/climate-change-and-rapidly-intensifying-hurricanes
safeinOhio
(32,754 posts)higher ground.
NNadir
(33,586 posts)He has a very realistic plan to stop hurricanes with, um...
...wind turbines.
Taming hurricanes with arrays of offshore wind turbines
No word on whether this complete asshole believes that taming hurricanes with wind turbines might also stop, um, um, um, the wind, but if you're worried about that, don't say a word or he'll sue whatever journal in which you question him.
He's very much into peer review by lawyer:
Why are scientists filing lawsuits against their critics?
The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences was apparently not amused: National Academy of Sciences wants Stanford professor's $10M lawsuit thrown out
Finally, though, he dropped his suit: A Stanford professor drops his ridiculous defamation lawsuit against his scientific critics
Possibly it was because it made him look even more asinine then his "paper" about hurricanes and wind turbines.
Anyone who has a bright college aged student looking for Ivy League is advised to not choose Stanford, even if it's the only one offering admission. This asshole actually has tenure.
One of my favorite papers by a Nobel Laureate is one by Barton Richter, (politely) calling this fool, um, a fool:
Energy Environ. Sci., 2012, 5, 8758