EIA - Coal-Fired Generation In The US Dropped 13% Jan-June 2019 Compared To 2018

[hatrack]

EDIT

EIA data for the first half of the year shows coal's decline alongside the rise of cleaner fuels. Comparing generation data for only June, the contrast is more stark — a 22.6% decline in coal generation between this year and last.

Coal has been in decline for years, driven by the los cost of natural gas, the declining cost of renewables and environmental controls meant to reduce emissions.

"Almost 13 gigawatts of coal-fired electricity generation capacity has retired this year or is scheduled to retire by the end of 2020, accounting for 5% of the capacity existing at the end of 2018," EIA wrote in its August Short Term Energy Outlook.

Overall, EIA said it expects electric power sector demand for coal to fall by 2% in 2020, compared with an expected decline of 15% in 2019. "However, planned coal plant retirements will continue to put downward pressure on overall electricity demand for the fuel," the agency said. Generation data for the first half of 2019 comes from Table ES1.B of EIA's Electric Power Monthly.



EDIT

https://www.utilitydive.com/news/eia-data-shows-coal-generation-continues-precipitous-slide/561895/

EDIT

https://www.utilitydive.com/news/eia-data-shows-coal-generation-continues-precipitous-slide/561895/

[riversedge]

1. and Trump just put huge tariffs on solar panals!

[Finishline42]

3. Exactly

I'm not sure if I want to build factories to make solar panels in the US. I look at them as I do flat panel TV's. You spend millions to build a factory and in a couple of years it's outdated and you might not be able to re-task existing equipment for new developments.

But they are doing everything possible to increase the cost of solar to slow it's deployment.

[Finishline42]

2. EIA has been understating the future use of renewables for years

I don't get the logic of this part of their release >>>

Overall, EIA said it expects electric power sector demand for coal to fall by 2% in 2020, compared with an expected decline of 15% in 2019.

So the data shows 15% decline this year but they expect only 2% next year??? If the data shows 15% this year wouldn't you project a continuation of the trend? Especially since there is a big push to start wind and solar projects this year to qualify for the expiring tax credit?

[caraher]

4. I don't know how they do their projections

but generally closures of major power plants happen at times known well in advance. So it seems likely that there were some big closures this year and fewer expected next year based on the known plans of utilities

[Finishline42]

5. It's not just closures, it's also about utilization of existing plants.

From my understanding, the way the power auctions work is that they sell in 6 minute segments. Operators put in a bid for what they will sell their power for and last one bought is what all get. Since wind and solar have basically no operational cost they bid basically $0.00 to make sure they sell what they have. Coal and nuclear have much higher costs so as new wind and solar come online, it pushes higher cost producers out.

What also will come into play is all the battery capacity coming online. Then wind and solar can store excess power and sell at predictable high cost periods.

[caraher]

6. True

But of course coal plants don't come online and offline in 6 minute chunks - they're more a baseline producer. In any case, the less coal the better. It also looks like there will be a slowdown of coal plant retirements for 2020 (though this is a bit old; perhaps some of the planned 2018 closures actually happened this year?).

[hatrack]

10. This might be it - I know Navajo at Page, AZ is shutting down in about two months

It's either the #2 or #3 biggest point source of carbon in the country. Next year? Not sure anything that big will close.

[NickB79]

7. It's being replaced by natural gas

Renewable output actually DECLINED in 2019 so far!

https://finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/why-u-renewable-energy-production-203700819.html

[Finishline42]

9. Thanks for the link so as to get the facts behind the headline

From you link:
Wind and solar produced more (wind just slightly more) this year.

The main reason for renewables producing less was hydro dropping over 5%, as it returned to the mean.

We produced 6% more from gas fired plants but that was down from a 14% increase from same period a year prior.

We also produced 2.3% less electricity than same period a year ago.

The problem with a coal fired plant producing power, to be able to supply the grid with power on 6 minute intervals, is that you have to have the boilers ready, already burning coal just waiting to produce what is needed. How much of that coal is wasted just to be ready? Especially with power surges when demand peaks in short intervals as manufacturing plants are working, but batteries do this quicker and obviously cheaper that keeping a coal plant on the ready. Plus you can charge the batteries during non peak hours with the excess capacity in the grid.

There is an overhead number for a coal fired plant that gets spread over the time it produces power. As the time decreases those costs become a bigger per unit cost number. When you reduce the utilization factor of coal plants it makes them unsustainable. You get to where we are today - building new wind and solar is cheaper than it cost to just operate an old coal fired plant.