Plenty Of Talk Of Carbon Cuts From US Utilities, But Decades Of Coal Use Still Await
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Yet many of those same companies also plan to keep large coal-fired power plants open for decades to come. Duke and AEP's current plans, for example, call for running several big coal plants into the 2040s (Climatewire, Aug. 23). And power companies are building droves of new natural gas plants. Natural gas plants have replaced much of America's recently retired coal capacity. Nationally, power companies are planning to add 37 gigawatts of new natural gas capacity between now and 2025, more than wind (29.7 GW) and solar (21 GW), according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data.
Paulina Jaramillo, a professor at Carnegie Mellon University who studies power companies, said it is notable that large carbon emitters are making emission reduction pledges. But she added, "Their ability to meet those standards really depends on the details."
Those details are generating considerable skepticism among some climate analysts. Duke, for instance, recently raised its 2030 emissions target from a 40% cut of 2005 levels to 50%. The Charlotte, N.C.-based company also added its net-zero target in 2050 to its long-term plans. But Duke plans to build 7.8 GW of new natural gas capacity by 2030 in North Carolina and South Carolina, just two of the six states where it operates. The company anticipates closing 3.3 GW of coal and old natural gas in the Carolinas over that period.
The problems are twofold. Utilities typically need decades to recoup power plant investments. That means plants built in the coming years will likely be running in 2050, raising the risk that power companies will miss their emission reduction goals, spend more money to retrofit their facilities with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), or lose their investments. "Really, the fundamental question comes down to the alignment of their near-term actions to that target," said Eli Kasargod-Staub, executive director of Majority Action, a nonprofit that encourages companies to green their operations. "Will these utilities be realigning their near-term capital investments to be eliminating carbon emissions as rapidly as possible, or will they continue with major fossil fuel projects and claim they are in line with a net-zero target?"
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