PNAS - In Brazilian Amazon, REDD Data On Deforestation, Carbon Cuts Grossly Overstated
The reduction in levels of deforestation and carbon emissions attributable to Brazilian Amazon projects certified under a leading United Nations carbon-offset program have been seriously overstated, according to new research. Analysis of 12 voluntary REDD+ projects (Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation), that have operated in the world’s largest rainforest since 2008, found that the claimed reductions in forest loss had failed to accurately set baselines for deforestation rates by not properly accounting for successful efforts made separately by the Brazilian government and other programs.
The research, carried out by a team of international researchers and published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, concludes that “the accepted methodologies for quantifying carbon credits overstate impacts on avoided deforestation and climate change mitigation.”
Using a number of publicly available deforestation datasets including PRODES and TerraClass (both operated by INPE, Brazil’s space agency), and MapBiomas (operated by Climate Observatory, a Brazilian NGO), the team analyzed deforestation across Brazilian states including Amazonas, Pará and Rondônia up until 2017. The researchers used a methodology called synthetic control, which compared the levels of deforestation in areas involved in the REDD+ program with levels in similar areas that were not involved in the program. According to the findings, cumulative deforestation was in fact higher in half of the REDD+ program areas.
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In the early 2000s, the average annual deforestation rate in the Brazilian Amazon was 19,000 square kilometers (7,300 square miles). But prior to the launch of the first voluntary REDD+ projects in the region in 2008, a massive deforestation prevention effort took place and those rates were reduced to around 6,000 square kilometers (about 2,300 square miles) in 2007. From 2004 to 2017, there was a drop of 75% in deforestation levels, according to the Brazilian government. “It’s true that most of these projects have grossly overestimated the baseline,” says Philip Fearnside, an ecologist at the National Institute for Research in Amazonia (INPA) in Brazil. “They’re taking credit for what the project didn’t do. It undermines all of the efforts to reduce deforestation.”
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https://news.mongabay.com/2020/11/redd-carbon-and-deforestation-cuts-in-amazon-overestimated-study/