Strong Polar Vortex This Year Will Likely Delay Winter Weather; Unusual Warmth In Lower 48 For Weeks

[hatrack]

EDIT

The polar vortex is a staple of the atmosphere; the southern hemisphere has one, too. Each polar vortex has two parts — the tropospheric polar vortex, which occupies the lowest level of the atmosphere in which we reside, and the stratospheric polar vortex up above. The tropospheric polar vortex is usually wavier and more erratic, while its counterpart in the stratosphere tends to be smoother and more self-contained. Both are “coupled,” meaning changes in one can influence the other. That’s why meteorologists look at the health of the stratospheric polar vortex for longer-range indicators of how the weather people actually experience evolves. A stronger stratospheric polar vortex tends to fence in the cold, while a weaker one allows Arctic outbursts to visit the mid-latitudes.

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Given “the fact that the polar vortex has gotten so strong … I think this one will be associated with overall mild weather to kick off December,” said Judah Cohen, director of seasonal forecasting at Atmospheric and Environmental Research. He says that a La Niña pattern taking shape over the eastern Pacific could also encourage the polar vortex to remain strong. “I’m not seeing much evidence to break it down or get it wavy and exciting,” agreed Attard. “I think for now it’s pretty steady and will keep that cold air bottled up north.”

An El Niño pattern, on the other hand, would favor a more rapid breakdown of the polar vortex, allowing the collapse of prolonged bitter chill to extend into the Lower 48. That’s not the case this year.

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The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting odds of above-average temperatures for most of the southern, central and eastern United States through late February; that could suppress snow totals for many. Only the northern Plains, the Pacific Northwest and the Inside Passage of Alaska are favored to see colder-than-average conditions prevail. Granted, that forecast takes into consideration a number of other factors; the polar vortex is tough to predict further out than two or three weeks into the future. “Using the models, the GFS, the European … those are at the weekly time scales we’re forecasting,” said Attard. “We can only forecast the polar vortex out about as far as those models go.”

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/11/19/polar-vortex-start-winter/

[Siwsan]

1. This could be my fault. I bought a new snowblower, last year. Only used it once, so far.

Which is fine, by me. I am NOT a fan of Winter weather. The ice storm and resulting week long power outage in 2013 cemented that attitude. But, I do feel sorry for people who enjoy Winter weather activities. (I'm in Michigan.)

Hopefully the whole season's snow doesn't fall in March.

[underpants]

3. LOL

My wife bought we one for Christmas in 2018 - haven’t had the need to use it since.

[Best_man23]

4. Yep, you cursed it

Its like me buying mower parts in February.

[underpants]

2. I'm feeling a butt ton of snow here in February March

Which is when we usually get a big snow.