Putin On Global Warming: "Invisible Changes In The Galaxy" Are Why Siberia Is Burning Down
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Source: NASA, current as of July 29
Aysen Nikolaev, the governor of Yakutia, has said that climate change was "undoubtedly" the most important reason for the current fires. He pointed to the fact that June was hotter than it has ever been in the history of weather records, with temperatures of more than 20 degrees Celsius (68 degrees Fahrenheit) instead of the usual 15 degrees – and precipitation of only 2 instead of 37 millimeters (1.46 inches). The region is threatened with a vicious cycle: The wildfires have the potential to drive climate change and further thaw the permafrost. The situation is very serious, but the state doesn't seem equipped for dealing with the flames and is fighting the fires with totally inadequate means.
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Pedestrians in Yakutsk: The end of days seems nigh Foto: Emile Ducke / Emile Ducke für DER SPIEGEL
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The taiga and the forest tundra in Yakutia together comprise one-fifth of the Russian forest. They cover 256 million hectares, an area seven times the size of Germany. This makes the region one of the world's largest CO2 sequestration areas. The fact that the forest can grow here at all is due to the permafrost soil, which in Yakutia reaches a depth of more than a kilometer. The frozen ground ensures that the little precipitation the area does get doesn't seep away and provides the tree roots with moisture. Otherwise, the region would be much too dry for a forest.
"In terms of climate, this part of Yakutia is semi-desert," says Alexander Fedorov of the Yakutsk Melnikov Institute for Permafrost Research. The forest, in turn, protects the soil from thawing. "The average temperature in Yakutia has risen two to three degrees in the past 50 years," he says. This is leading to the further thawing of the top layer of soil. Homes are sinking into the ground and pastures are turning into cratered landscapes. As it rots, organic matter that was preserved in the ice releases carbon dioxide or the greenhouse gas methane. In the forest, the ground only thaws to an average depth of one meter, says Fedorov, and the changes are taking place much more slowly. The question is what happens when the protective layer fades?
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The country's leader has long downplayed climate change and denied that it is man-made. As recently as October 2018, Vladimir Putin speculated at an energy forum that the cause of global warming was "invisible changes in the galaxy – and we don't even understand what is happening. Man-made emissions probably also have an impact, but many specialists believe it is insignificant." For three years, Russia procrastinated until it became one of the last countries to ratify the Paris climate agreement in the fall of 2019. By 2030, greenhouse gas emissions in Russia are to be limited to 70 percent of 1990 levels.
Experts like Alexey Kokorin of the conservation organization WWF, though, consider that target to be a sham. The Soviet Union, with its energy-intensive planned economy, was responsible for enormous CO2 emissions - and Russia is already 30 percent below those levels. On top of that, under the Paris targets, Russia is allowed to offset the CO2 absorbed by its forests when calculating its carbon footprint, an amount that is estimated to have been 535 million tons in 2019 alone. The result is that Russia's net emissions are currently about 50 percent of 1990 levels. In other words, the country's commitment to reducing CO2 emissions is actually a license to increase them. Putin, of course, can hardly be an unbiased commentator when it comes to climate change due to the office he holds. Russia lives from the export of fossil fuels – you could say it's the country's business model. You don't expect a tobacco manufacturer to talk impartially about the risks of smoking either. It's impossible.
A forest fire near Yert Foto: Emile Ducke / DER SPIEGEL
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https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/climate-change-creates-new-challenges-for-russian-firefighters-a-5a0145a6-bffa-46c4-bd74-e537bc84494d