NOAA Forecast - 3rd Straight La Nina Likely Through The End Of 2022, Will Intensify Western Drought

[hatrack]

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
9 June 2022


ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory


Synopsis: Though La Niña is favored to continue through the end of the year, the odds for La Niña decrease into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (52% chance in July-September 2022) before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022 (58-59% chance).

During May, below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) continued across most of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. However, negative SST anomalies weakened during the past month, as reflected by the Niño indices, which ranged from -0.6°C to -0.9°C during the past week [Fig. 2]. Subsurface temperatures anomalies (averaged between 180°-100°W and 0-300m depth) also weakened with values returning to near zero [Fig. 3]. Below-average subsurface temperatures persisted near the surface to at least ~75m depth from the central to the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, with above-average temperatures continuing at depth (~100 to 200m) in the western and central Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. Low-level easterly wind anomalies prevailed in the east-central equatorial Pacific, while upper-level westerly wind anomalies continued over most of the equatorial Pacific. Convection was suppressed over the western and central Pacific and was weakly enhanced over parts of Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system continues to reflect La Niña.

The most recent IRI/CPC plume average for the Niño-3.4 SST index forecasts La Niña to persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23 [Fig. 6]. This is now in greater agreement with the forecast consensus this month, which also predicts La Niña to continue into the winter. However, it is clear that recent observed oceanic and atmospheric anomalies have weakened and this is anticipated to continue through the summer. Uncertainty remains over whether La Niña may transition to ENSO-neutral during the summer, with forecasters predicting a 52% chance of La Niña and a 46% chance of ENSO-neutral during July-September 2022. After this season, the forecast is for renewed cooling, with La Niña favored during the fall and early winter. In summary, though La Niña is favored to continue through the end of the year, the odds for La Niña decrease into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (52% chance in July-September 2022) before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022 (58-59% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 14 July 2022.

To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: [e-mail].


EDIT/END

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

It’s looking like we’re heading into a third year of La Niña. According to a recent forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, La Niña conditions are going to continue to the end of this year, which would be its third fall and winter season in a row. The weather pattern is categorised by rising temperatures and stronger hurricanes. The presence of La Niña also means more drought conditions in the U.S., where millions of people are already dealing with water scarcity.

The current La Niña conditions began in the spring of 2020, and they reached an intensity that has made it one of the strongest springtime La Niña events “in the historical record dating back to 1950,” Michelle L’Heureux, a NOAA climate expert, told Axios. It’s fuelling weather patterns that are resulting in dry conditions all over the U.S. right now.

The country’s current widespread drought is being felt by millions of people. Low water levels are affecting hydropower in California, and elected officials in the state and in Texas have implemented water restrictions. These drought conditions in turn increase the threat of wildfires across the U.S. West and Southwest. Just last month, President Biden declared a state of emergency for five counties in New Mexico that were impacted by wildfire.

La Niña also fuels hurricane season. Last month, NOAA released a forecast for a busier-than-average Atlantic hurricane season, projecting that the number of storms in the 2022 season would surpass the 30-year average, making this the seventh year in a row that NOAA made a similar prediction.

EDIT

https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2022/06/another-la-nia-fall-means-u-s-drought-will-get-even-worse/

[OnlinePoker]

1. Since 2010, there have only been 3 El Nino years

These are the years where it's wetter than normal for the southwest. There have been 6 La Nina years. The rest have been neutral. It's no wonder the droughts have been so intense lately. We really need a couple of El Nino years strung together to break the cycle.

[Colbert]

2. Need a couple of El Nino years

Last edited Thu Jun 23, 2022, 06:50 PM - Edit history (1)

El Nina / El Nino comprise two of the most elemental conditions that drive climate on a measurable scale for significant periods of time. What do the climate models predict for El Nina and El Nino for the next decade?

[OnlinePoker]

3. They never predict that far ahead. Only for the next few seasons.

As per the weekly ENSO Status and Predictions, they are calling for La Nina to continue through to the end of the year, decreasing slightly in late summer before increasing again in fall and early winter. Not good because that's the start of the rainy season and would be the 3rd La Nina year in a row. See the conditions of the southwest and expect more of the same.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf