Climate change will bring more turbulence to flights in the Northern Hemisphere, analysis finds

[Judi Lynn]

JULY 25, 2024
by Madeline Reinsel, American Geophysical Union



Climate change will increase the frequency of experiencing moderate-to-severe clear air turbulence at any given time in the Northern Hemisphere with each degree rise over the preindustrial global average temperature, according to the new study. Each box represents percent changes in the frequency of clear air turbulence as climate change intensifies. Black dots mark regions where the results of different models strongly agree. From Figure 7 of the new study. Credit: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (2024). DOI: 10.1029/2023JD040261


A type of invisible, unpredictable air turbulence is expected to occur more frequently in the Northern Hemisphere as the climate warms, according to new research. Known as clear air turbulence, the phenomenon also increased in the Northern Hemisphere between 1980 and 2021, the study found.

The research follows up on recent work predicting increases in moderate-to-severe clear air turbulence by analyzing extensive data sets and running comprehensive model simulations. The study was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres.

The results suggest clear air turbulence will increase in most regions affected by the jet stream, especially over North Africa, East Asia and the Middle East, and that the probability of clear air turbulence will increase with each degree of warming. While most people expect turbulence when flying in an airplane through a thunderstorm or over a mountain range, clear air turbulence hits aircraft unexpectedly. And unlike other, more obvious types of turbulence, there is no easy way to detect and avoid clear air turbulence.

"We know that clear air turbulence is the main cause of aviation turbulence, which causes approximately 70% of all weather-related accidents over the United States," said Mohamed Foudad, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Reading and the study's lead author. Recent well-publicized encounters with clear air turbulence caused injuries on Singapore Airlines and Air Europa flights.

More:
https://phys.org/news/2024-07-climate-turbulence-flights-northern-hemisphere.html

[Marcus IM]

1. The loop of climate collapse.

A research article was posted on DU about the primary contributors of greenhouse gasses.
Airline travel contributes about 55% of total upper atmosphere GHGs.

More travel = more turbulence (and more severe storms, unlivable heat, ocean level rise, glacier melt, desertification, etc etc ad infinitum).