Cold weather and data centres drive up US greenhouse gas emissions 2.4%

[muriel_volestrangler]

A very cold start to 2025 and the growing power demands of data centres and cryptocurrencies saw US emissions of planet-warming gases rise for the first time in three years, a new analysis shows.

Last year homes burned more gas for heating while the use of coal surged by 13% to meet rising electricity demands, the data finds.

Although solar power also shot up last year, overall, greenhouse gas emissions went up by 2.4% after two years of decreases, outpacing the level of economic growth, according to estimates from the Rhodium Group.

The authors say the policies of the Trump administration didn't "meaningfully impact" the rise in emissions but they expect this to change in the coming years.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj9r3832j47o

Based on preliminary economic and energy activity data, we estimate that in 2025, US greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions increased by 2.4%, marking a change from the prior two years of decreases in emissions. Emissions also grew faster than the economy in 2025, with real GDP expanding by a projected 1.9%—reversing the decoupling of emissions and economic activity of the prior two years. Emissions in 2025 were 6% below pre-pandemic levels in 2019 and 18% below 2005 levels.

The increase in emissions was driven primarily by the buildings and power sectors. Colder winter temperatures drove higher space heating demand in buildings, pushing up direct emissions from fuel use in buildings by 6.8%. Higher natural gas prices and growing power demand boosted coal electricity generation, resulting in a 3.8% rise in power sector emissions. Elsewhere, changes in emissions were more subdued. Industrial sector emissions rose modestly due to higher industrial activity, and oil and gas emissions ticked up slightly with increased production. Despite record travel activity, transportation emissions were essentially flat due to the growing adoption of hybrid and electric vehicles. US emissions in 2025 were not meaningfully impacted by policies enacted by the 119th Congress and the Trump administration, but we project that those policy changes could have increasing effects in the years to come.

Economic growth is a major determinant of GHG emissions, and in 2025, the US inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (real GDP) expanded at a projected rate of 1.9%.1 This marks about a 30% decline from the growth rates recorded in each of the prior three years. The economy grew despite significant economic turbulence and uncertainty introduced by federal government changes to trade, tariff, tax, and energy policies, as well as the longest government shutdown in US history. Consumer spending, the core driver of US GDP, has so far remained resilient to these shocks and an inflation rate of nearly 3%, while continued investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure were another major source of economic growth.

We estimate that US GHG emissions grew faster than the economy, breaking a three-year trend of economic growth outpacing emissions growth. Using preliminary economic and energy activity data, we project that economy-wide emissions grew by 2.4% in 2025 (Figure 1). This puts US emissions 6% below pre-pandemic levels in 2019 and 18% below 2005 levels.

https://rhg.com/research/us-greenhouse-gas-emissions-2025/

[hatrack]

1. Wow, who could POSSIBLY have predicted this?!?