Nationally, Wildfires From 2015 To 2024 Have Reversed 4 Years Of AQ Improvement, Especially w. Ground-Level Ozone
Wildfires have worsened ozone levels across the United States so much over the last decade that they have reversed around four years of progress, a new study has found. Surface ozone levels, or smog concentrations, steadily increased from 2015 to 2024, deteriorating air quality across the Midwest and Western U.S., researchers at the University of Iowa found in a study released Thursday. According to the study authors, this contributed to an increase of 318 premature deaths per year from fire-sourced ozone since 2013. Their NASA-funded research mapped these ozone levels in kilometer-by-kilometer grids across the entire continental U.S between 2003 and 2024.
They also used AI and machine learning to incorporate different components, such as satellite observations and air quality forecasts into their models. The researchers said they strengthened this by measuring surface ozone levels by parts per billion (ppb) and comparing it against the data from the Environmental Protection Agency. While the models themselves cannot predict future ozone levels, Weizhi Deng, the principal author on the study, is concerned about the trajectory of ozone levels based on their conclusions.
“We want to send a message to the public that they may want to, from any individual standpoint, check the air pollution forecast during the summer wildfire season to limit outdoor activities,” Deng said. “To the policymakers, we want to call for consistent, continued monitoring of surface ozone.” Surface ozone levels increased by about 0.13 ppb from 2015 to 2024, the study found. The authors said this result reverses any annual decreases in surface ozone levels since 2003 attributed to federal initiatives against tailpipe emissions. The total reversal, Deng said, is about four years of progress or as high as six in the Western U.S.
Their modeling showed the largest increase in ozone levels over the two-decade period they measured in the northern Rocky Mountains and across the northern Plains in North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota and Montana. While the Midwest does not experience frequent wildfires, Deng noted that elevated levels found in Iowa, Illinois and Michigan were influenced by smog traveling southward from Canadian wildfires and eastward from wildfires in California and other western states.
EDIT
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/09062026/wildfires-reset-air-quality-progress/
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