Commentary: 2012 Predictions (yes another one)

[Javaman]

http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2012-01-02/commentary-2012-predictions

COLIN CAMPBELL
“Oil and gas are finite resources formed in the geological past, which means that they are subject to depletion. For every gallon used one less remains, and the more we use the steeper the decline. A debate rages as the date when production peaks but misses the point when what matters is the vision of the long decline on the other side of it, which is beyond dispute. The main reason for the uncertainty is the unreliable nature of public data due to lax reporting and ambiguous definitions. For example, the Oil & Gas Journal reports that 66 countries have unchanged reserves at the end this year, although it is manifestly implausible that new discovery and/or so-called reserve growth should exactly match production. Oil-based energy is central to the modern world fuelling transport, trade and agriculture, which has allowed the economy to expand and the banks to lend more than they had on deposit confident that Tomorrow's Expansion was collateral for To-day's Debt. The decline of production during the Second Half of the Oil Age, which now dawns, implies economic and financial contraction. The transition threatens to be a time of great tension as already seen in demonstrations from Moscow to Wall Street and revolutions in the oil-rich Arab world. Coming to terms with what unfolds is a major challenge but as always there will be winners, who react in a positive way, and losers, who continue to live in the past.”

Colin Campbell was born in 1931 and went on to take a degree and doctorate in geology at Oxford University before joining the oil industry as a field geologist, working in South America and Papua-New Guinea. An analysis of Colombia in 1966 perceived the finite limits of oil and gas in the country and the nature of depletion, which in turn led to a regional analysis of Latin America in 1969. He then moved into an executive role, ending his career in Norway in 1989. In retirement, he consulted on oil and gas depletion, writing seven books and many papers as well as lecturing widely, and giving interviews to the media. He helped found the Association for the Study of Peak Oil, which has expanded around the world, holding major conferences.

CHRISTINE PATTON
“An increasingly bankrupt American populace, enraged by a weakening economy punctuated by crises various and sundry, begins to boil over with belated recognition of the corruption which now appears endemic to the politico-corporo-financial system. With the presidential election looming, President Obama takes the time-honored path trod by Presidents, Kings, and Emperors before him and (reluctantly) triggers a military action aimed at corralling a desperately sabre-rattling Iran, which happens to have a not-so-subtly expanding nuclear program, a threatened capability to block the Straits of Hormuz, and the third highest amount of world oil reserves. Operation Duck and Cover distracts the public from the country’s growing tent cities and loathsome bail-outs, temporarily gooses a small battalion of corporate stocks with the anticipation of trillions in military spending, and incidentally triggers an apparently insane poison-pill shutdown of Iran’s several mbd from the oil markets. On the bright side, the Pentagon plants an edible landscape. Hey... it could happen

Christine Patton is co-chair of Transition OKC and author of the Peak Oil Hausfrau blog. A former risk management consultant, she now focuses on urban homesteading, improving community resiliency and skilling up to power down.

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