Warming Effects More Pronounced Than Thought In West; Forest Diebacks, Colorado Flows, More

[hatrack]

EDIT

The report, Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity, Ecoystems and Ecosystem Services, was peer-reviewed by the U.S. Geological Survey and drew on the expertise of 60 contributors from government agencies, universities and private, non-profit organizations such as The Nature Conservancy. The report foreshadows the National Climate Assessment, a report done every four years for the U.S. president and Congress charting projections in global change for the next 25 to 100 years. Done by the U.S. Global Change Research Program, that report is anticipated to be released in draft form in January and available for public comment.

In a teleconference Tuesday highlighting key findings of the biodiversity report, moderator Mary Grimm said U.S. ecosystems are already undergoing "massive" transformations as the result of climate change. "Ecological systems are already more stressed than at any comparable period in human history, said Grimm, a senior sustainability scientist at Arizona State University's Global Institute of Sustainability.

The report notes that forests are already responding to climate change, with longer growing seasons and warmer winters that enhance pest outbreaks such as rampant bark beetle infestations. Such attacks are leading to widespread die-offs of trees in forests, sparking increased risks for more severe and extensive fires.

"If trends continue," the report warned, "baseline tree mortality rates in western forests are projected to double every 17 to 29 years."

EDIT

http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865569065/Climate-change-already-playing-out-in-West-report-says.html

[Speck Tater]

1. Every new report says "worse", "faster", "hotter", "higher",...

And still there are fools who will tell you "it's not so bad."

[AverageJoe90]

2. Not really.

Temperature projections have been pretty much on track as far as it can be observed. Really, about the only problems that we truly were blindsided by in terms of speed and severity was what's been happening up in the Arctic with the ice caps over there, and maybe a few other things. Other than that, nothing's really gone too far beyond the average estimation.

[Speck Tater]

3. LALALA

[AverageJoe90]

6. LOL. Here's one for ya:

http://donemmerich.blogspot.com/2009_11_01_archive.html&docid=D7XcWiOJe8SKoM&imgurl=

[NoOneMan]

8. "tree mortality is doubling! tree mortality is doubling!"

Except the sky didn't really fall, did it?

[CreekDog]

13. a denier favorite!

[NoOneMan]

4. Well if this is all going according to plan and you're still not "extremely alarmed"...

You must of had your head in the sand for a very long time.

[AverageJoe90]

5. What do you mean by "according to plan", exactly?

[NoOneMan]

7. Projections

I just thought it was more interesting to word it that way.

[AverageJoe90]

9. Not a good idea sometimes.

Anyhow, the average projections seem to take us to about 3-4*C by 2100 with all feedback possibilities considered. The latest IPCC model is definitely more accurate than some past ones but it may still be a tad conservative, especially with the R1FI/RCP 8.5 scenario, I think.

[NoOneMan]

10. And this is.....?

ok? doable? nice weather for tanning? cause for concern? cause for alarm? will cause wide ecosystem breakdown? means for a multi-billion head die-off from famine? the worst catastrophe mankind will face? likely to reduce humanity to a few rich people in pods that I give two fucks about their ability to survive?

On a scale of 'nice tan' to 'existential crisis for 99% of homo sapiens', where are you weighing in here? Just curious

[hatrack]

11. Follow-Up On Cascade Effects - Same Scientific Report, Different Article

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Changes in precipitation and extreme weather events can overwhelm the ability of natural systems to reduce or prevent harm to people from these events. For example, more frequent heavy rainfall events increase the movement of nutrients and pollutants to downstream ecosystems, likely resulting not only in ecosystem change, but also in adverse changes in the quality of drinking water and a greater risk of waterborne-disease outbreaks.

Changes in winter have big and surprising effects on ecosystems and their services. Changes in soil freezing, snow cover and air temperature affect the ability of ecosystems to store carbon, which, in turn, influences agricultural and forest production. Seasonally snow-covered regions are especially susceptible to climate change because small precipitation or temperature shifts can cause large ecosystem changes. Longer growing seasons and warmer winters are already increasing the likelihood of pest outbreaks, leading to tree mortality and more intense, extensive fires. Decreased or unreliable snowfall for winter sports and recreation will likely cause high future economic losses.

The ecosystem services provided by coastal habitats are especially vulnerable to sea-level rise and more severe storms. The Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts are most vulnerable to the loss of coastal protection services provided by wetlands and coral reefs. Along the Pacific coast, long-term dune erosion caused by increasing wave heights is projected to cause problems for communities and for recreational beach activities. However, other kinds of recreation will probably improve due to better weather, with the net effect being that visitors and tourism dollars will shift away from some communities in favor of others.

Climate change adaptation strategies are vital for the conservation of diverse species and effective natural resource policy and management. As more adaptive management approaches are developed, resource managers can enhance the country’s ability to respond to the impacts of climate change through forward-looking and climate science-informed goals and actions.

EDIT

http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2012/12/20

[NoOneMan]

12. If are carbon reservoirs like forests are more sensitive than predicted to warming

This means there is a greater potential of further warming from non-modeled or under-estimated feedback loops. I do not think we yet have a clear picture of what is going to be happening on this planet