Carbon emissions 'will defer Ice Age'

[muriel_volestrangler]

The last Ice Age ended about 11,500 years ago, and when the next one should begin has not been entirely clear.

Researchers used data on the Earth's orbit and other things to find the historical warm interglacial period that looks most like the current one.

In the journal Nature Geoscience, they write that the next Ice Age would begin within 1,500 years - but emissions have been so high that it will not.

"At current levels of CO2, even if emissions stopped now we'd probably have a long interglacial duration determined by whatever long-term processes could kick in and bring (atmospheric) CO2 down," said Luke Skinner from Cambridge University.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-16439807

They say the non-anthroprogenic conditions of the present can be best compared with 780,000 years ago, and take the length of period from there. They think CO2 would need to drop below 240ppm (cf about 280 ppm pre-Industrial Age) to trigger a new glacial period. Other groups think it might need to be a bit lower still.

[hatrack]

1. Well, that's one way of looking at it . .