Bakken Avg. Annual Production Decline Rate: 38%; Eagle Ford Avg. Production Decline Rate: 42%

[hatrack]

EDIT

Of course, the optimists have been telling us (and telling us and telling us) that so-called tight oil—the kind that comes from hydraulically fractured wells—will now finally move the needle on worldwide production. Well, so far, the net result is nada, nothing, zilch. Production from such wells has risen, but not enough to offset declines elsewhere.

And, as it turns out, fracked oil wells are now the poster children for the problem of production decline. Average annual oil production decline rates for two of the most well-developed tight oil plays, Bakken in North Dakota and Eagle-Ford in Texas, are 38 percent and 42 percent, respectively. That means that drillers in those plays must replace 38 to 42 percent of their current production EACH YEAR before they can increase production. It’s a ferociously high decline rate, some 10 times the rate worldwide. And, this is the oil that the optimists tell us is going to raise global production!

Humans evolved to be optimistic risktakers. That genetic heritage has served us well up to this point. But, sometimes that trait makes us incautious and gullible. And, the oil industry is taking advantage of a natural human inclination to believe the presumed experts, especially when they offer an optimistic tale that is designed to make us comfortable with the status quo.

In truth, unprecedented disruptions and changes in our worldwide energy system have been underway for more than a decade. We can ignore that fact, but only at our peril.

EDIT

http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/Energy-Voices/2013/0318/Behind-the-oil-boom-lurks-oil-well-depletion

[FBaggins]

1. This could mislead some people

It doesn't make sense to compare increases in one area to worldwide production volumes (which are impacted by more than just depletion).

The average reader can be forgiven for assuming that these rapid decline rates mean that they're drilling rapidly just to tread water (because that's clearly the impression the author wants to leave us with)... but it isn't true. Texas is producing more oil than they have in decades (and almost double what they did just five or six years ago). ND alone is producing almost as much as all of PADD II did three years ago and more than they have in at least many decades (if not ever).

[bluedigger]

2. Thank you for that optimistic tale.

I feel much better about the future now.