We're SCREWED

[XemaSab]

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?mosaic=Arctic

There's a 3 km wide crack running from Barrow to Svalbard, right through the heart of the multi-year ice.

Anyone have a fork we can stick in it? 'Cause this action is DONE.

[aristocles]

1. Your point? Pray, enlighten us.

[MindMover]

4. what he is trying to say is,

that crack will eventually become a crevice and sooner rather than later a river and then comes an explosion of methane into our atmosphere ...

it is not good for humanity or our earth ...

[aristocles]

5. Oh

Ok.

[Isoldeblue]

6. Thank you for explaining it

This is frightening and depresses the hell out of me and I feel helpless about it. I fear for my grandchildren who still aren't even teens yet.

[MindMover]

10. Hopefully this wonderful planet will self heal before we destroy it ...

some scientists say it can but some do not think it can before we die out ...


http://arcticmethane.blogspot.com/

[FirstLight]

2. can't tell where this is at all

I keep looking for those references on an antarctica map and am coming up blank. Any better maps or info?

[Warpy]

3. Check the Arctic

[hatrack]

18. Try this link - the graphic it displays has the coastlines and islands superimposed

http://neven1.typepad.com/.a/6a0133f03a1e37970b017ee95104a5970d-pi

[GliderGuider]

22. Thanks, that helps. What a frickin' train wreck.

The whole damn sea has turned to ice cubes.

[pscot]

31. That looks like a gyre

Like the ice is swirling around a drain, or some such.

[reteachinwi]

7. Screwed, blued, and tattooed

screwed, blued, and tattooed definition
[ˈskrud ˈblud æn tæˈtud]
mod.
badly mistreated; badly screwed. : When John bought his wreck of a car, he got screwed, blued, and tattooed.
mod.
alcohol intoxicated. : Who wants to go out and get screwed, blued, and tattooed?

[OKIsItJustMe]

24. I disagree with the first definition

“Screwed, blewed and tatooed” (like many other colloquialisms, e.g. “beating a dead horse”) comes from sailing. It describes a sailor returning from shore leave.

[GliderGuider]

8. A quote from Paul Beckwith on Neven's blog.

Beckwith is an Ottawa geology PhD student, and ice and climate watcher par excellence:

For the record; I do not think that any sea ice will survive this summer. An event unprecedented in human history is today, this very moment, transpiring in the Arctic Ocean. The cracks in the sea ice that I reported on my Sierra Club Canada blog and elsewhere over the last several days have spread and at this moment the entire sea ice sheet (or about 99% of it) covering the Arctic Ocean is on the move. Clockwise. The ice is thin, and slushy, and breaking apart. This is abrupt climate change in real-time. Humans have benefited greatly from a stable climate for the last 11,000 years or roughly 400 generations. Not any more....

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2013/03/crack-is-bad-for-you-and-sea-ice/comments/page/2/#comments

[dixiegrrrrl]

13. His comment is easier to find at this:

http://profile.typepad.com/6p017ee9540622970d

[GliderGuider]

9. I had an uncomfortable feeling when the first cracks showed up a month and a half ago

Now I'm sick to my stomach...
Could be quite the summer.

[Lionessa]

11. If the report of the low cost, fast desalination technique actually works, maybe not.

From what I gather the biggest issue is sea rise. Well, if we can cost and environmentally effectively desalinate and pump inland to drought areas perhaps is won't be as bad as one might think, and pumping water shouldn't need the slow and environmental issues that gas and oil have, if it spills, it's not such a problem as other pipelines are.

Just my thoughts, we might yet make it through the worst of it, the rest we'll have to adapt. Surely we'll lose millions if not billions of sq feet and perhaps even people, but the earth needs a few less people to survive I guess.

[MindMover]

12. The statement about sea rise comes from deniers ...

"From what I gather the biggest issue is sea rise."

The real issue is METHANE release and its ensuing effects ....

http://arcticmethane.blogspot.com/

[AnotherDreamWeaver]

14. Did you know the Salton Sea in Ca. was caused by a spill, and a town flooded?

The canal taking Colorado River Water to Lost Angels leaked and it took them a while to stop the flow and fix the canal. From: http://www.parks.ca.gov/?page_id=639
One of the world's largest inland seas and lowest spots on earth at -227 below sea level, Salton Sea was re-created in 1905 when high spring flooding on the Colorado River crashed the canal gates leading into the developing Imperial Valley. For the next 18 months the entire volume of the Colorado River rushed downward into the Salton Trough. By the time engineers were finally able to stop the breaching water in 1907, the Salton Sea had been born at 45 miles long and 20 miles wide – equaling about 130 miles of shoreline.

[Nihil]

15. Sea ice melting doesn't cause sea level rise.

What it does cause (on this scale) is an irreversible (in less than geological timescales)
change in albedo and a whole heap of pain with regard to increased methane emissions
which leads to a shitload of accelerated climate change (with the consequent impact
on weather systems in the Northern Hemisphere amongst other things ...).

The latest gee-whiz puff-pieces on desalination don't enter into the discussion (sadly).

[OnlinePoker]

16. I can't make out anything in that image

I can see a bit of a coastline on the right side and a small portion of a crack on the upper left, but can't make out Svalbard anywhere. By Barrow, are you talking Barrow, Alaska? Are there any NASA images that show this with country borders in it to make it easier to figure out?

[Nihil]

19. See .18 for an image with overlay.

(Thanks Xema for the OP and Hatrack for bringing it into rather unpleasant focus with the overlay map.)

[CRH]

17. Add in 24 hour sun, ...

at the Arctic circle which starts now at the equinox, and the new fissures, this year could be a melt never forgotten. Once those currents start churning and pushing chunks south past Greenland, the potential is ominous.

[Ghost Dog]

20. This comment is accurate:

This summer will play out however it plays out, soon enough. We're just here to witness and to document, not make fools of ourselves like the climate modelers.

It's not like giving out a tsunami warning. There, peope can take effective evasive action in response to a good prediction. Here there's nothing they can do -- they're screwed.

Live-blogging the collapse of the Arctic could have longer term educational value. While it's way too late to be thinking about ice recovery in our lifetimes, we might be able to mitigate or slow the next domino to fall by curbing emissions. Ok, not the next 2-3 dominoes but maybe some after that.

Next fall the story will shift -- if it hasn't already -- to "oops, what happened to the Arctic isn't staying in the Arctic".

Posted by: A-Team | March 19, 2013 at 12:39

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2013/03/crack-is-bad-for-you-and-sea-ice/comments/page/2/#comments

[truebrit71]

21. Whoa!!!

I figured we had until 2015 before it was ice-free in the summer...this could get interesting...and NOT in a good way...

[aristocles]

23. Looking forward to launching my boat directly into the ocean...

...from my home in Columbus, OH.

[happyslug]

25. We are in the 2-3 most dangerous weeks of Climate Change

From about March 10th to April 10th, you will see the LOWEST amount of Sea ice off the coast of Antarctica. The significance of this is that thus huge reduction in sea ice will permit warmer and warmer waters to come into contact with the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.

Some late March to Early April we will see a massive breakup of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet leading to 15-20 foot rise in world wide sea levels. Maybe not this year, or next year, but soon.

Around 120,000 years ago, such a collapsed is believed to have occurred to the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, raising world wide sea level 20 feet, and within 100 years the Ice Age had started, dropping world wide sea levels over 80 feet:

http://www.imaja.com/as/environment/can/journal/madhousecentury.html

I am less concerned about damages from the Arctic (I am concerned about global climate change, AND the need to at least TRY to keep temperatures down, but the real major problem is the West Antarctic Ice Sheet NOT the Arctic).

[longship]

26. Except that Greenland is still an issue in the Arctic.

That is the second largest ice shelf and it is melting, too, as documented by James Balog. Although not as large as the continent sized Antarctic ice shelf, it would not be good for it to collapse.

Fortunately, these ice shelves take many years to melt. If we're wrong about that, we could be in deep shit. Or, at least deep water.

[happyslug]

29. There are TWO Ice Sheets in Antarctica, compared to one in Greenland.

Greenland and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) are about the same size (Each contain about 10% of the world's fresh water), the difference is the WAIS is grounded BELOW sea level, while Greenland (and the much larger East Antarctic Ice Sheet, which contains about 70% of the World's fresh water) are grounded ABOVE sea level. Thus it is easier for the the raising temperature of the seas to affect the WAIS as oppose to the Greenland Ice Sheet (And the East Antarctic Ice Sheet).

Notice I use the term "Ice Sheet", an Ice Sheet that base is right over ground. with the exception of the WAIS, Ice sheets have very little affect on world wide sea levels TILL THEIR MELT. When Ice Sheets melts, the water flows into the oceans and increase world wide sea levels.

Now the WAIS is grounded BELOW sea level. Thus it displaces SOME water, but since it is GROUNDED, the ice added to the top of the Ice Sheet has no affect on world wide sea levels.

Now the Arctic Ocean is covered with an "Ice Shelf", which is a sheet of ice FLOATING on the top of water. Since an "Ice Shelf" is floating on top of water, it displaces the water it would become if and when it melts (and thus when an "Ice Shelf" melts it has little of no affect on world wide sea levels). On the other hand, present theory maintains that Ice Shelves help keep warm water from Ice Sheets, preventing the Ice Sheets from melting and affecting world wide sea levels. Thus the concern about the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), for the Ice Shelves surrounding the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) have been slowly disappearing over the last 20-40 years (Accelerating over the last 10 years).

Thus the concern about the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). In theory (and it is believed to have happened 120,000 years ago) the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS),being grounded BELOW sea level, can be directly affected by higher sea temperatures,. which can undermine the WAIS and cause it to break up and floating out to sea. This break up will NOT be a slow breakup over decades, it may occur within a short time period, maybe even in hours as oppose to days. Such a large breakup would displace a lot of water, leading to a rapid (one week to one month) increase in world wide sea levels.

Thus the comment that the WAIS is the Godzilla of Global Warming, if and when it breaks (and it looks more and more like when not if) you would have a massive global disaster on your hands.

Here is a map where you can chart various locations and see how they are affected by a 6 to meter raise (16 to 21 feet raise).

http://geology.com/sea-level-rise/

[longship]

30. Sorry, I didn't go into the detail.

Thanks for your amplification.

Being bandwidth limited here, verbosity generally isn't going to happen from me.

I depend on other DU pedants to correct me, and/or fill in the details.

[OnlinePoker]

34. Antarctica had the second HIGHEST minimum sea ice in the satellite record this year

And it is currently 900,000 sq km more than average. Last year had the second highest sea ice area ever in Antarctica.

[hatrack]

27. Anyone tracking methane output? It's getting, uh, interesting. Readings as high as 2199 PPBv

This is from about 2/3ds of the way downthread - http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2013/03/crack-is-bad-for-you-and-sea-ice.html#more

Pardon the minor moment off topic - except that the Arctic fracturing is having an impact on methane readings...

The METOP 2 IASI CH4 imagery has been updated through March 15 12-24 hrs.

https://sites.google.com/site/a4r2013metop2iasich4co2/home/2011-airs-ch4-359-hpa-vs-iasi-ch4-970-600-mb

The Greenland, Norwegian, Barents and Kara Seas continue to have record amounts of methane at 586-600 mb, as high as 2199 PPBv on March 15, 2013 -12-24 hrs.

Even more interesting are the areas of methane release in the Laptev, East Siberian and Chukchi Seas as the Arctic ice fractures. This is unusual for this time of year. Two Google Earth imagery samples are attached in the ASIF:

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,12.0.html

When one compares this with surface readings of approx. 1830 PPBv at Mauna Loa at the end of February, 1947 PPBv at Ny-Alesund in mid-February, or early March readings of 1930 PPBv at Barrow, we have a considerably higher set of readings over large portions of the North Atlantic and Arctic.

EDIT

Bulk imagery available below:


https://sites.google.com/site/a4r2013metop2iasich4co2/home/2011-airs-ch4-359-hpa-vs-iasi-ch4-970-600-mb

[Nihil]

33. Kicking for this aspect too. (n/t)

[hatrack]

28. And kicking for the most important thread of the year to date

[FirstLight]

32. K&R again!

I swear, this is getting interesting and in a very scary way... keep these readings and info coming, we should all be ready for Mr. Toad's Wild Ride...the models are consistently off in date, and this shit is happening faster and outta control. we are still even considering natural gas and fracking? omg, we're beyond screwn.....