With a Solar Minimum and La Nina’s, Why isn’t it Really, Really Cold?

[unhappycamper]

http://www.juancole.com/2013/09/minimum-ninas-really.html

With a Solar Minimum and La Nina’s, Why isn’t it Really, Really Cold?
Posted on 09/27/2013 by Juan Cole

~snip~

But it isn’t cold. Warming has continued during the past decade and a half. Sophie Lewis writes, “The last decade was the hottest on record globally. Each year from 2000 to 2010, except 2008, was in the 10 warmest recorded globally.”

That conclusion is terrifying. We should be shivering. We’re sweltering. All the solar minimum and the La Ninas and the displacement of warming to the seas have been able to do is slightly slow the rate in the warming of surface temperatures. If we’d had normal sunspot activity and lots of El Ninos and if the oceans hadn’t started taking on some of the extra heat, the thermometers would be bursting the way they do in a Roadrunner cartoon.

The world has already warmed by 1 degree C. in the past century, and we are locking ourselves into a 2-4 degrees C. rise in this century. (Hint: a 4 degrees C. increase might well make the climate unstable and endanger human survival).

The paid-for denialists who will try to tell you that global warming has stopped and we don’t need to get off oil, gas and coal tout de suite are snowing you. And they are drowning your grandchildren as sure as if they were pushing their heads under the waves and holding them there while the little ones thrash and their eyes bulge and their lungs fill with water. All to make another buck off their dirty fuel. If you have a house and you haven’t had it properly insulated and haven’t made an appointment to put solar panels on it, you aren’t helping save humankind.

[Keefer]

1. Wait a while.

<snip>

So, what’s in store for this winter? The “Days of Shivery” are back! 
For 2013–2014, we are forecasting a winter that will experience below average temperatures for about two-thirds of the nation. A large area of below-normal temperatures will predominate from roughly east of the Continental Divide to the Appalachians, north and east through New England. Coldest temperatures will be over the Northern Plains on east into the Great Lakes. Only for the Far West and the Southeast will there be a semblance of winter temperatures averaging close to normal, but only a few areas will enjoy many days where temperatures will average above normal.

<snip>

http://www.farmersalmanac.com/weather/2013/08/25/2014-us-winter-forecast/ .

[NickB79]

2. The Farmer's Almanac is a pseudoscientific pile of crap

I immediately know the level of scientific literacy someone has the moment they try to use it's predictions as an authoritative source.

[Keefer]

3. Sorry.

I didn't realize it offended you.

[Champion Jack]

7. Agreed

[PuffedMica]

4. Solar intensity had only varied 0.1% for the last million years

Energy output of the Sun is pretty much constant.

Solar minimum and maximum are measured by the number of Sun spots and when the magnetic field changes direction. There is no correlation between Sun spots and long term weather on Earth.

[pscot]

5. Um, actually we're at solar max right now

[NickB79]

6. The article explains that

http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2013-09-18/science/42182028_1_sunspots-maunder-minimum-solar-cycle

LONDON: Predictions that 2013 would see an upsurge in solar activity and geomagnetic storms disrupting power grids and communications systems have proved to be a false alarm. Instead, the current peak in the solar cycle is the weakest for a century.

Subdued solar activity has prompted controversial comparisons with the Maunder Minimum, which occurred between 1645 and 1715, when a prolonged absence of sunspots and other indicators of solar activity coincided with the coldest period in the last millennium.

So technically we are into the solar maximum, but it's so low that you can barely discern it from the minimum at the moment.

[OnlinePoker]

8. Your image is a little out of date

Here's the current status:



And this shows all cycles back to 1750:

[pscot]

9. I know

I just grabbed the 1st graphic I found that made the point.