Research Council Paper Calls For Warning System For Sudden Climate Flips (WAIS, Methane, Etc.)

[hatrack]

BOULDER — A new National Research Council report calls for the development of an early warning system that could help society better anticipate sudden changes resulting from climate change and their impacts on society, says a University of Colorado faculty member who chaired the committee that produced the report.

Climate change has increased concern over possible large and rapid changes in the physical climate system, including Earth’s atmosphere, land surfaces and oceans, said Professor James White of CU-Boulder’s Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research and the chair of the National Research Council committee. Some abrupt changes and impacts already underway – including the loss of Arctic sea ice and increases in the extinction rates of marine and terrestrial species – and others could occur within a few decades or even years, said the committee.

“Research has helped us begin to distinguish more imminent threats from those that are less likely to happen this century,” said White, also a CU-Boulder professor in geological sciences. “Evaluating climate changes and impacts in terms of their potential magnitude and the likelihood they will occur will help policymakers and communities make informed decisions about how to prepare for or adapt to them.”

Other scenarios, such as the destabilization of the west Antarctic ice sheet, have potentially major consequences, but the probability of these changes occurring within the next century is not well understood, highlighting the need for more research, according to the committee. In some cases, scientific understanding has progressed enough to determine whether certain high-impact climate changes are likely to happen within the next century. The report notes that a shutdown in the Atlantic Ocean circulation patterns or a rapid release of methane from high-latitude permafrost or undersea ice are now known to be unlikely this century, although these potential abrupt changes are still worrisome over longer time horizons.

EDIT

http://www.denverijournal.com/article.php?id=10045

[pscot]

1. Andrew Revkin blogged about the NRC report in the NY Times

He was very reassuring. His takeaway was that it will be several generations before we run into serious problems. I didn't get that from the précis I read, but I'm sure it's in there somewhere behind the paywall. Maybe now I can stop holding my breath.

[kristopher]

2. There is no paywall

If you want to read the book you can either read online or download a copy. If you want to pay for a paper book, you have that option also.
Virtually all National Academy Press products can be downloaded for free.

Go to the link for the paper - it was the first embedded link in the article under the word 'study'.

http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=18373

On the left click the download link.
On the bottom right of the next dialogue box, there is a link saying something like "I don't have an account". Click it.
Again on bottom right there is a link to sign in as a guest. Click it.
Provide email and agree to terms. Click continue. Download should begin.
They'll ask you if you'd mind telling them how you will use the doc, you can just say no.
It's a 15MB file.