If Solar is Contagious, Can Utilities Help Spread the Bug?

[kristopher]

If Solar is Contagious, Can Utilities Help Spread the Bug?
By Meg Cichon, Associate Editor, RenewableEnergyWorld.com
February 2, 2012

You may have heard it before, but it is worth mentioning again: In residential communities, solar is contagious. But a recent study, "Peer Effects in the Diffusion of Solar Photovoltaic Panels," conducted by Bryan Bollinger of the NYU Stern School of Business and Kenneth Gillingham of the Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies, published in December sheds some new light on the phenomenon.

The report confirms that, “there is a positive, statistically significant, causal effect of previous nearby installations on a household’s decision to adopt solar panels…A one percent increase in the zip code installed base leads to approximately a one percent increase in the zip code adoption rate.” And at the street level, the study found that a one percent increase in installed solar leads to a nine percent increase in the street adoption rate. Those numbers add up.

...If you start with a neighborhood with 25 solar installations, where it was 100 days between the 24th and 25th installation, this peer pressure effect will reduce the time between installations to just 10 days by the 250th PV project. Of course, this process takes a while to unfold. In fact, if solar PV was being installed only once every 100 days at the outset, the peer pressure effect will take over 15 years to reduce the time between neighborhood installs to 10 days.

Browning responded to Farrell’s virulent findings: “I would note that the current strain (solar expensivus) is not as virulent as future strain (solar cheapus). Minnesotans are expected to have low resistance — we are talking major epidemic levels of contagion.”

The NYU/Yale report...

http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2012/02/if-solar-is-contagious-can-utilities-help-spread-the-bug?cmpid=WNL-Friday-February3-2012

[Warpy]

1. I recently took a road trip here in NM

and can attest to the fact that solar installations are springing up like mushrooms in spare acreage across the state, at least the northern part of the state where I live. Since the installations are all alike, I imagine that means PNM isn't lying about getting a decent percentage of its power from solar these days.

The utility has also put up wind farms here and there but we've got more sunshine than wind out here except in spring and fall.

[txlibdem]

2. +1

That's great news. It sounds like us little people can make money off solar as well. Bravo.

[Yo_Mama]

15. It's REALLY good territory for solar

The great plains area in the US is some really good territory for wind.

With the cost of solar coming down so much solar installs in good sun territory are bound to keep rising.

[Yo_Mama]

3. Monkey see, monkey do is of course a factor, but....

World of mouth and other's experiences play a part in the average person's decision making.

However I believe that you will find in the real world that economics plays a huge part in this process. Feed-in tariffs create the conditions, and then seeing other people do this and talking with others about their experience will speed up the process.

However in most places, if you dumped the feed-in tariffs you would find installations dropping way off - that is, until or when solar costs dropped to make it profitable again.

In any case, there is a little-discussed problem emerging in some areas from grid-tied solar installations, and that is grid instability, especially at the local level. People haven't yet caught up to the fact that we will need to upgrade local cabling and also change how the grid works to deal with some of this.

It's very expensive to do, and no one seems to be considering this cost. If we don't do it, further problems will emerge. The options are either to shunt power aside from the grid in the individual installation to storage (probably battery) or to upgrade the wiring at the residential local level and install balancing units locally. The second option is probably way too expensive to do in most areas.

Australia's experience demonstrates the problem:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/carbon-plan/rooftop-solar-panels-overloading-electricity-grid/story-fn99tjf2-1226165360822

[Dead_Parrot]

5. Load shedding seems an easy option...

One of the things about living in NZ is we have mainly renewable power. One of the things about that is that there isn't always enough.

So, we have loads based on 'essential' and 'non-essential' use: In my house, for instance, the hot water system is hooked up to the 'non-essential' circuit: In a pinch (usually a dry year when the hydro lakes are low) the local distributor can hit a button and switch off my hot water for a bit, along with the a/c in the local bar, or whatever.

(I should point out rates are lower on this circuit as an incentive).

It works quite well here, although whether it would work in the US is another matter - You can't even agree to pay for each others health care...

[XemaSab]

6. If they turned off someone's 82" flat screen during a football game

there would be gun-related violence.

[Dead_Parrot]

7. I've seen what you call football

'twould be a blessing.

[XemaSab]

8. I'm surprised that Australian Rules isn't bigger worldwide

Seriously, this game looks brutal.

[joshcryer]

10. Damn.

That's like the UFC meets football...

[Yo_Mama]

14. In the UK they are talking about banning them!

Big screen TVs. Because they draw too much power.

I can't see that selling down under.

[joshcryer]

9. I love that.

Do they give exceptions to the non-essential circuit? For example, for hot water, what if you had one of those efficient on demand systems? I could see it for, say, a tank based hot water heater. You probably wouldn't even notice.

[Dead_Parrot]

11. You'd just put it on the 'essential' loop

Past the meters, it's your choice: The only "enforcement" behind the system is the difference in rates. It does have to be hard-wired, though - no cheating with switches (not that they check).

[joshcryer]

12. Ahh, even better. It kinda sounded like they mandated the "non-essential circuit."

That's a decent incentive, to be sure. We should adopt it, I don't see how it could hurt.

[Dead_Parrot]

18. Maybe...

...there was talking of handing over a/c thermostats in CA to outside control some years back, and from the responses on DU you'd think they were taking guns from freepers: see
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=2664211&mesg_id=2664211 and
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3136767&mesg_id=3136767

Here, it's not compulsory to have it at all - I can choose between essential/non, day/night and flat rates.

[Yo_Mama]

13. This is part of the "smart" grid we keep talking about

There have been localized implementations.

It takes time and money, but is a decent option as long as you can keep the outages kind of temporary. Having no hot water for days would make most US citizens rather grumpy. As long as you can keep the outage temporary (rotate them from one area to another), that sort of thing works.

But the circuit problem is something different. As we reach more penetration with solar (and btw that article covers Australia, which is pretty good solar territory), we have to do some things differently. The reason they are restricting some installations in Australia is because the local cabling just can't handle it.

[Dead_Parrot]

20. IIRC, we use 8-hr shifts

Unless we get really short, then it all goes. Worse still, and the other supplies go in 8 hour shifts. there a plan somewhere on how the thing goes, I'll see if I can find a link.

I don't know what we do about grid-tie circuits - I don't think it's common enough to be a problem.

[XemaSab]

16. What else is hooked up there?

I think virtually all hot water here is gas.

[Dead_Parrot]

17. Well...

...Some friends of mine have a pool and a/c, which is hooked up to it: I used to work at a place with underfloor heating on it: IIRC the pub's beer coolers & wine fridges are on it, but don't hold me to that.

Oh, and I've got a heated towel rail on it, but since I pulled the cb about an hour after moving it it's not really an issue.

[XemaSab]

19. I think going without AC for an hour here would be counterproductive

especially when it's like 110, but something where the AC gets cranked from 72 to 76 for an hour would probably work. Then again, would the temperature difference have to be "made up" when it goes back down?

I really like the idea of this, I'm just trying to get my head around what it would look like "in person," as it were.

[Dead_Parrot]

21. Go ask the Winnemem Wintu...

...I'm fairly sure they managed without a/c

[XemaSab]

22. They had that big lake to swim in

Oh, wait.