Japan and Germany are the only nations that seem committed to reducing nuclear power production
The rest of the world has been on a high plateau since about 2004. The USA registered a drop in 2012, but their peak production was in 2010, so their nuclear-political complex doesn't seem to be committed to a production decline yet.
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From The World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2013
http://www.worldnuclearreport.org/World-Nuclear-Report-2013.html#executive_summary_and_conclusions
As of the middle of 2013, a total of 31 countries were operating nuclear fission reactors for energy purposes. Nuclear power plants generated 2,346 terawatt-hours (TWh or billion kilowatt-hours) of electricity in 2012 [21], less than in 1999 and a 172 TWh or 6.8 percent decrease compared to 2011 as well as 11.8 percent below the historic maximum nuclear generation in 2006. The maximum contribution of nuclear power to commercial electricity generation worldwide was reached in 1993 with 17 percent (see figure 1). It has dropped to 10.4 percent in 2012, a level last seen in the 1980s. According to BP, the nuclear share in commercial primary energy consumption dropped to 4.5 percent, “the lowest since 1984”. [22]
Figure 1: Nuclear Electricity Generation in the World
About three-quarters of the decrease is due to the continuing and substantial generation drop in Japan (–139 TWh or –50 percent over the previous year), which in three years fell back from the 3rd to the 18th position of nuclear generators. Production also decreased for differing reasons in all top five nuclear generating countries: United States (–20 TWh or –2.5 percent), France (–16 TWh/–4 percent), Germany (–8 TWh/–10 percent), South Korea (–7 TWh/5 percent) and Russia with an insignificant drop (–0.8 TWh/–0.5 percent).
Nuclear generation declined in a total of 17 countries, while in 14 countries it increased or remained stable [23]. Seven countries [24] generated their historic maximum in 2012.
Figure 2. Nuclear Power Generation by Country, 2012/2011 and Historic Maximum
The “big five” nuclear generating countries—by rank: the United States, France, Russia, South Korea and Germany—generated 67 percent of all nuclear electricity in the world. The three countries that have phased out nuclear power (Italy, Kazakhstan, Lithuania), and Armenia, generated their historic maximum of nuclear electricity in the 1980s. Several other countries’ nuclear power generation peaked in the 1990s, among them Belgium, Canada, Japan, and the U.K. A further six countries peaked their nuclear generation between 2001 and 2005: Bulgaria, France, Germany, South Africa, Spain, and Sweden. Among the countries with a steady increase in nuclear generation are China, the Czech Republic and Russia. However, even where countries are increasing their nuclear electricity production this is in most cases not keeping pace with overall increases in electricity demand leading to a reduced and declining role for nuclear power.
Only one country in the world, the Czech Republic, peaked its nuclear share in 2012 with 35 percent. In fact, all other countries—except Iran, which started up its first nuclear plant in 2011—reached their maximum share of nuclear power prior to 2010. While three countries peaked in 2008 (China) or 2009 (Romania, Russia), the other 26 countries saw their largest nuclear share by 2005. In total, nuclear power played its largest role in ten countries during the 1980s [25], in 12 countries each in the 1990s and in the 2000s.
Increases in nuclear generation are mostly a result of higher productivity and uprating [26] at existing plants rather than due to new reactors. According to the latest assessment by Nuclear Engineering International [27], the global annual load factor [28] of nuclear power plants decreased from 77 percent in 2011 [29] to 70 percent in 2012. Not surprisingly the biggest change was seen in Japan, where the load factor plunged from 69.5 percent in 2010 to 39.5 percent in 2011 to 3.7 percent in 2012. This is also due to the fact that officially 50 of the 54 pre-3/11 units in Japan are still counted as operational—even though some reactors have not generated electricity for years (see box hereunder).
Figure 3. Nuclear Share in Electricity Mix by Country, 2012/2011 and Historic Maximum
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Figure 4. Nuclear Power Reactor Grid Connections and Shutdowns, 1956–2013
Figure 5. World Nuclear Reactor Fleet, 1954–2013
Figure 6. Number of Nuclear Reactors under Construction
Figure 7. Age Distribution of Operating Nuclear Reactors, 2013
Figure 8. Age Distribution of Shutdown Nuclear Reactors, 2013
Figure 9. 40-Year Lifetime Projection
Figure 10. The PLEX Projection (Accommodates probable lifetime extensions)
Figure 11. Forty-Year Lifetime Projection versus PLEX Projection (in numbers of reactors)
Figure 12. Start-ups and Closures of National Nuclear Power Programs, 1950–2013
Figure 13: Average Annual Construction Times in the World 1954–2013
Note: The bubble size is equivalent to the number of units started up in the given year. Sources: MSC based on IAEA-PRIS 2013
There are three nations that have contributed significantly to the decline of nuclear power production since 2007. I question the longer term commitment to reduction by the USA and France, because I think the nuclear industry's influence on their governments is still stronger than the citizens' groups that oppose it.
The rest of the world looks like business as usual for a flattening industry.
