Former BP geologist: Peak oil is here and it will ‘break economies’

[xchrom]

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2013/12/23/former-bp-geologist-peak-oil-is-here-and-it-will-break-economies/



Industry expert warns of grim future of ‘recession’ driven ‘resource wars’ at University College London lecture

A former British Petroleum (BP) geologist has warned that the age of cheap oil is long gone, bringing with it the danger of “continuous recession” and increased risk of conflict and hunger.

At a lecture on ‘Geohazards’ earlier this month as part of the postgraduate Natural Hazards for Insurers course at University College London (UCL), Dr. Richard G. Miller, who worked for BP from 1985 before retiring in 2008, said that official data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), US Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Monetary Fund (IMF), among other sources, showed that conventional oil had most likely peaked around 2008.

[pscot]

1. kick

[MANative]

2. this is true if, and only if, you buy into the idea....

That oil is and will only ever be the one primary energy source available to us. If we're stupid enough to believe that and we fail to further develop other energy sources or technologies and innovate new ones, then we deserve the misery in which we will find ourselves.

[NickB79]

3. It's not about believing oil is our only energy source

It's the particular mix of features of oil that make it so valuable. It was relatively easy to extract, VERY energy-dense, easily transportable, easy to use as a fuel in a simple internal combustion design engine, and there was a LOT of it. So much, that we built a global economy dependent upon it's easy availability for better part of a century.

This is the reason we're chasing oil reserves to the far corners of the planet with multi-billion dollar drilling rigs. It is hard to match the traits of oil for all the things it is used for in our world today.

[kristopher]

4. "It is hard to match the traits of oil for all the things it is used for.."

Yes and no.

"It is hard to match the traits of oil for all the things it is used for" but, when we look at the way those applications evolved we find that most of them have alternatives that work. Case in point, mass transit both local and long distance instead of cars.

There used to be a far greater range of applications but that shrank after the oil market shakeups in the 70s raised prices and people were motivated to find and move to alternative. Let oil rise to $200bbl and watch how rapidly we shift to electric drive.

[NickB79]

5. I do admire your optimism

Let oil rise to $200bbl and watch how rapidly we shift to electric drive.

If we see a slow, steady increase in oil prices over the next decade, that could well be how things work out (a massive shift to electrics). I hope that is how things play out, but my genuine concern is that, if oil prices were to spike in a sudden fashion, we'd see another round of economic recession/depression, something that would make the stagflation of the 1970's or the recent Great Recession look tame in comparison. And once people's buying power is sucked dry just trying to put food on the table and pay the rent/mortgage, good luck getting them to buy electric cars in droves.

An updated government program to assist people in getting electric vehicles would help, but the current one doesn't go far enough IMO to impact those who truly need electric vehicles (the poor and working-class), and a new, more generous one seems out of reach given the political civil war in Washington.

On the other hand, it is possible that, as electric cars come up to scale, their prices will drop much, much further. I'd love to see a manufacturer roll out a $10,000 EV one day; that price point would make electrics accessible for almost everyone.

[kristopher]

6. That was for purposes of demonstration

I only meant to illustrate that it isn't so much a technical issue as it is an economic issue.

I don't know how old you are, but I recall exactly the type of event you're talking about. In 1973 and 1977 IIRC. It was definitely bad, but it's amazing how rapidly we adjusted. Even though unemployment lines were stretched 3X around city blocks and sleeping at the gas pump wasn't an odd experience, it wasn't as bad as many predict it would be when they talk of peak oil consequences.

Certainly it wasn't worse than what we've just gone through and, in the end, we'd be far better off for the price we'd pay than the deal we got just got with the banks this time.

For my part, I'm wondering what it's going to take for people to wise up to the damage the GOP has done/continues to do to this country. I thought for sure they were done after Nixon; but they came roaring back after sabotaging Carter. Then we saw them lose all credibility with 8 years of asinine attacks on Clinton - and damned if they didn't steal the election from Gore with what I'll always think of as a non-violent coup. Now, after GWShub spent 8 years making their brand something that you wouldn't wipe your arse with, damned if they aren't making their flock believe the entire act of governing is a sin that is to be avoided at all cost - until they steal the next election of course. And then it will be another round of "Shut up and sit down; elections have consequences" don't you know?

[WillyT]

7. K & R !!!

[LouisvilleDem]

8. Again?