(Coal Friendly) EIA Increases Short-Term Coal Retirement Prediction by 50%

[kristopher]

EIA Increases Short-Term Coal Retirement Prediction by 50%
Coal’s future in the U.S. is looking grim.

Katherine Tweed February 17, 2014

Coal retirements are happening, and fast, according to new data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s 2014 Annual Energy Outlook reference case.

EIA’s latest prediction that about 60 gigawatts of coal will retire by 2016 is up from about 40 gigawatts, a prediction it issued just last year, and more than double the 27 gigawatts it predicted in 2012. It’s not the first time that EIA lowballed its estimates when it comes to the country’s energy mix. The agency also has one of the most conservative outlooks for renewable energy growth.



In 2012 alone, about 10 gigawatts of coal were retired, amounting to just over 3 percent of the total coal-fired generation assets operating in 2011, according to the EIA. From 2010 to 2012, the average size was 97 megawatts, compared to 145 megawatts for plants retiring in the coming decades.

The retirements in coming years, driven by the EPA’s Mercury and Air Toxics Standards and low natural gas prices, will be larger plants compared to the facilities that have gone offline in the past few years.



The impact of retiring coal is sometimes described as potentially catastrophic to electric reliability...

http://preview.tinyurl.com/kvu99nz

[kristopher]

1. Union of Concerned Scientists: The Case for Closing America's Costliest Coal Plants

Ripe for Retirement: The Case for Closing America's Costliest Coal Plants

As many as 353 coal-fired power generators in 31 states — representing up to 59 GW of power capacity — are no longer economically viable compared with cleaner, more affordable energy sources

A significant number of U.S. coal-fired generators are old, inefficient, dirty, and no longer economically competitive. Simply stated, they are ripe for retirement and should be considered for closure.

America’s coal power fleet is facing an increasingly uncertain economic future. Growing competition from cheaper, cleaner alternatives — including natural gas and renewable energy sources such as wind and solar — is making it harder for these generators to produce energy economically.

With appropriate planning, these outdated coal generators can be closed down while still maintaining a reliable electricity system. By ramping up underutilized natural gas plants, increasing renewable energy through existing state policies, and reducing demand through improved energy efficiency, every region in the country could more than replace the electricity currently produced by ripe-for-retirement generators.

Shutting them down doesn't just make sense financially...

http://www.ucsusa.org/clean_energy/smart-energy-solutions/decrease-coal/ripe-for-retirement-closing-americas-costliest-coal-plants.html

[kristopher]

2. A War on Coal?

A War on Coal?
William S. Becker Executive Director, Presidential Climate Action Project
Posted: 09/23/2013 8:54 am

Is President Obama waging a war on coal? That's the allegation from the coal industry and its champions in Congress as the Administration cracks down on carbon pollution.

The "war on coal" theme came up again last week when the Environmental Protection Agency issued a draft rule to limit carbon emissions from power plants. But who's warring whom? Let's think about this.

The evolution of the U.S. economy - of any robust economy, in fact - is a story of invention and obsolescence. New technology comes along; old technology fades away. The people who depend on the old technology don't like it. Until they adjust, they are victims of progress.

So it is with coal. The coal industry, including the black-faced, black-lunged miners who risk their lives every day to keep our lights on, deserves enormous credit for where we are today: one of the world's most prosperous people.

But two new realities have emerged that are redefining progress: Coal is the dirtiest of the fuels responsible for global climate change, and we are finding much better ways to keep the lights on....

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/william-s-becker/a-war-on-coal_b_3975135.html