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xchrom

(108,903 posts)
Tue May 13, 2014, 07:11 AM May 2014

A future of thirst: Massive worldwide water crisis lies on the horizon

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2014/05/13/a-future-of-thirst-massive-worldwide-water-crisis-lies-on-the-horizon/



The next time your throat is as dry as a bone and the Sun is beating down, take a glass of clean, cool water.

Savour it. Sip by sip.

Vital and appreciated as that water is, it will be even more precious to those who will follow you.

By the end of this century, billions are likely to be gripped by water stress and the stuff of life could be an unseen driver of conflict.

So say hydrologists who forecast that on present trends, freshwater faces a double crunch -- from a population explosion, which will drive up demand for food and energy, and the impact of climate change.

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A future of thirst: Massive worldwide water crisis lies on the horizon (Original Post) xchrom May 2014 OP
We need deregulation and privitization STAT! Orrex May 2014 #1
! xchrom May 2014 #2
Water wars? sakabatou May 2014 #3
yep, and they will make oil wars look like childs play. n/t 2pooped2pop May 2014 #4
Back in the early years of the Bush II presidency NewJeffCT May 2014 #8
Water and food... GliderGuider May 2014 #5
Yes, people still do not want to connect the Russia Drought of 2010 with the Arab Spring of 2011 happyslug May 2014 #13
+1 Excellent analysis! nt GliderGuider May 2014 #14
That's just more sciencey stuff! SCVDem May 2014 #6
It's going to get ugly. JNelson6563 May 2014 #7
Minnesota also - protect the Great Lakes and our ground water. jwirr May 2014 #9
SYG - Castle Doctrine type stuff here in WI. Ed Suspicious May 2014 #11
Have you looked at what is needed to actual move the Great Lakes Water to the Southwest? happyslug May 2014 #15
You are free to take back the hundreds of thousands of Michiganders that now live in Arizona dbackjon May 2014 #18
Nice to know that Peter Brabeck, tomg May 2014 #10
This message was self-deleted by its author Ed Suspicious May 2014 #12
"A future of thirst" nationalize the fed May 2014 #16
Desalination is expensive. nt raccoon May 2014 #17
not in my opinion. quadrature May 2014 #19

NewJeffCT

(56,828 posts)
8. Back in the early years of the Bush II presidency
Tue May 13, 2014, 09:44 AM
May 2014

those hippies and other liberals over at The Pentagon published a report that warned that because of global warming, future conflicts would be over things like water. It was basically ignored.

 

GliderGuider

(21,088 posts)
5. Water and food...
Tue May 13, 2014, 09:43 AM
May 2014

If you run short of either, you're in trouble. Running short of both at the same time is a recipe for ... ??? Why, increased profits of course!

 

happyslug

(14,779 posts)
13. Yes, people still do not want to connect the Russia Drought of 2010 with the Arab Spring of 2011
Tue May 13, 2014, 12:31 PM
May 2014

The Russia Drought of 2010:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Russian_wildfires

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-03/worst-russian-drought-in-50-years-threatens-more-crops-grain-sowing-plans.html

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.2747/1539-7216.52.1.140#.U3JIJ4FdXng


Arab Spring started in December 2010:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_Spring

The drought became a concern for Russia, that Putin STOPPED all exports of Grain to keep the prices of food in Russia from raising to high. This had the effect of raising the price of grain elsewhere. Egypt even exported grain (while staying a net grain IMPORTER) do to the high price of grain.

Now, in Egypt the price of grain is controlled and kept artificially low, but the world wide overall increase in price forced up all other food items, and those are NOT under price controls in Egypt. Thus you had massive unrest do to the over increase in the price of food, grain stayed cheap, but every other food item went through the roof. This lead to unrest so that any revolt would get massive support of the poor. This is what happened in France in 1789 and again in 1848 (and in Russia in 1917). The poor supported change to prevent another period of starvation, and thus supported ANY group that wanted change.

Now, the poor also had their own agenda, and that agenda was lined up with the Moslem Brotherhood. The Moslem Brotherhood has been providing a safety net for the poor of Egypt since the 1960s. Thus once Mubarak was overthrown, the poor supported the Moslem Brotherhood for no one else was proposing anything to help the poor THAT THE POOR THEMSELVES THOUGHT WOULD DO THEM GOOD.

The recent Counter Revolution occurred after the food price had stabilized and the Moslem Brotherhood had been denied the ability to implement programs to help the poor (Even with those two things working against the Moslem Brotherhood, they still had massive support as seen by how much effort the Army of Egypt had putting down non-violent protests in favor of the Moslem Brotherhood).

I bring this up, for Egypt is still considered unstable do to the high price of food, and even the military government is NOT about to cut out the food subsides. Any further increase in the price of food will lead to two things, first further unrest among the poor of Egypt, AND second, increase costs to maintain the food subsides. Both actions will increases cost incurred by the Government of Egypt, an unpopular government at best. Thus the worse thing that can happen to the Military government of Egypt is an increase in the price of grain, it will lead to disaster as far as the Generals of Egypt are concerned.

My point is Putin's decision to forbid the export of grain, lead to unrest in Egypt and the rest of the Middle East. It is almost Putin cuts grain exports, grain prices goes up, Egypt goes into revolt. Worse, history supports such a connection. The Famine of 1787 lead to the French Revolution of 1789. The European Famine of the mid 1840s, lead to the Revolution of 1848. The worse year for Russia during WWI was 1916, which lead to massive food shortages and thus the revolution of 1917. German was facing massive food shortages by 1917, became worse in 1918, so bad that Germany and its allies started to break down internally do to revolutions. Unlike the Russia Revolution of 1917, these were all put down, but both the German and Austria-Hungary Kaisers had to give up their thrones and were replaced by Republics (in the case of Austria-Hungary, several different republics).

Food Shortages lead to revolutions, more then any other single factor, but it is a factor no one wants to look at for the solution is to undo whatever is causing the food shortage.

 

SCVDem

(5,103 posts)
6. That's just more sciencey stuff!
Tue May 13, 2014, 09:43 AM
May 2014

Texas tried praying.

How DID that work out?

Got desal which also cleans out petrochemicals?

JNelson6563

(28,151 posts)
7. It's going to get ugly.
Tue May 13, 2014, 09:43 AM
May 2014

Here in MI we will be employing defensive tactics. Don't look to us desert states, move out of the deserts.

Julie

 

happyslug

(14,779 posts)
15. Have you looked at what is needed to actual move the Great Lakes Water to the Southwest?
Tue May 13, 2014, 01:55 PM
May 2014

The first problem is the Mississippi river. The bottom of the Mississippi River is already as SEA LEVEL as it flows from Missouri into Arkansas. This is the main reason it is a "Lazy, Hazy" river, it is mostly at sea level when it hit Tennessee and Arkansas. They is not that much further down it can go to reach the sea.

Worse At Minneapolis/St Paul the Mississippi is only 750 feet above sea level:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mississippi_River


Lake Superior os 601 Feet above sea level:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Superior

Thus you have to pump water UPHILL from Lake Superior to the Mississippi River. if you decide on the short route from Lake Superior to the Mississippi River.

On the other hand, you could wait till the Mississippi River is below the Great Lakes, The Mississippi river is 350 feet above sea level when its largest tributary, the Ohio joins it at Cairo Illinois.

Side note: In proper naming of rivers and tributaries, when two rivers join, the larger by volume is considered to be the main river, the smaller the tributary. This is NOT always followed, more for historical reasons then anything else. In the case of the Mississippi, when the Ohio joins the Mississippi, the Ohio is the LARGER RIVER. Thus under proper naming the Mississippi stops at Cairo. and the Ohio flows to New Orleans. LaSalle had sailed from what is now Chicago and thus kept the name Mississippi for the river AFTER the Ohio Joins it. I mention this for it is the OHIO that is the main tributary of the Mississippi. The Mississippi is smaller in volume to the Ohio, even given the extra water provided by the Missouri river which joins the Mississippi at St Louis which is 50 UPSTREAM from the Cairo and the Ohio River.

The next major river to join the Mississippi River is the Arkansas River. The Arkansas is a major tributary to the Mississippi River. starting near Colorado Springs Colorado and flowing through Kansas then Arkansas to the Mississippi River:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arkansas_River


The next major river to join the Mississippi is the Red River. These rivers join and do not join each other in Louisiana. The whole Mississippi River Delta is the joining of these two rivers AND the break up of the Mississippi into various streams flowing into the Gulf of Mexico. For more details look up information of that Delta.

I bring this up, for any water being pumped to the South West will have to follow the Missouri and then the Plate Rivers, the Arkansas River, or the Red River.

The biggest problem with the Arkansas and Red River is the headwaters of both are next to the head waters of the Rio Grande River. Thus any water via either river will be directed to the Rio Grande and thus New Mexico, West and South Texas as opposed to Arizona and the Colorado River.

Worse the head water of the Arkansas is 9,728 ft above sea level. Thus the water would have to be pumped over 1400 miles and then up at least 1 3/4 miles.

The Red River is formed by the combination of Buck Creek and "Prairie Dog Town Fork Red River"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_River_of_the_South

Prairie Dog Town Fork Red River starts at an elevation of 3,471 ft, but it itself the result of two other water streams coming together. Once you look it over, the numbers for the Red River are similar to the Arkansas Rivers, 1400 miles long and up 1 3/4 miles.

Both the Arkansas and Red Rivers borders the Rio Grande Drainage area in Colorado, the Rio Grande starts at 12,000 feet above sea level. over 2 miles above sea level. That is what you have to get over or go under the Rio Grande to get water further west (and that is if Texas will leave you, Texas wants that water also).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rio_Grande

The Colorado River is the best route to get water to Arizona and California. Water flows naturally downhill, and the Colorado can be directed to flow into Southern California if needed. Thus the problem is getting water to the Colorado River, which starts at an attitude of 10,184 feet above sea level (i.e. about two miles high).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colorado_River

An Alternative method is to reverse flow(or pump water along) the Missouri, Plate and South Plate Rivers. The South Plate starts its Drainage area north of the Arkansas river and thus easier to connect to the Colorado River for you can avoid the Rio Grande River headwaters. You still have to get the water over those mountains, which means pumping that water up hill at least 1400 miles AND up at least 2 miles.

Formula for Calculating price:
http://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/water-pumping-costs-d_1527.html

To pump one acre foot of water uphill 2000 feet costs 3000 kwh. To pump water up and over the Rockies we have to do at least 10,000 feet. Thus 15,000 kwh. In my home area it is about 16 cents to kwh, thus if we assume just 10 cents per kwh, you are looking at $1500 per acre foot.

Cite for 2000 KwH to move one Acre Foot of Water:
http://www.bigpictureagriculture.com/2014/02/how-much-energy-does-california-use-to-move-water.html

What is a Acre foot (please note that is what an average American use per year):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acre-foot

The Colorado River is expected to flow 15 MILLION acre foot per year (it has not been thus the crisis). To replace that 15 MILLION ACRE Foot, that would require at least $22.5 BILLION dollars per year just in the electricity costs. That will be the costs to OPERATE the system, construction would be in the trillions.

Thus pumping the water from the Great Lakes to the Southwest is talk and always will be talk. The problem is in the details and the high mountains of Colorado is the MAIN DETAIL. The second biggest detail is the water in the Great Lakes comes mostly from CANADA, and the most of the waters in the Mississippi comes from rain the falls EAST of the Mississippi River. Yes, it is possible to move water to the Southwest, but the price will be excessive.

 

dbackjon

(6,578 posts)
18. You are free to take back the hundreds of thousands of Michiganders that now live in Arizona
Tue May 13, 2014, 04:14 PM
May 2014

Once you figure out how to employ them all.

You can take the retirees first - and let THEM yell at you for any taxes for schools.

tomg

(2,574 posts)
10. Nice to know that Peter Brabeck,
Tue May 13, 2014, 09:56 AM
May 2014

head of Nestle is on the problem. First off, in Nestle's view, there is no human right to water. It is a commodity and has a commerical value. He also has some interesting things to say about GM food.

He is either evil or insane. In either case, I'm surprised they let him say this stuff. And this is not even him at his most sociopathic.

Response to tomg (Reply #10)

nationalize the fed

(2,169 posts)
16. "A future of thirst"
Tue May 13, 2014, 02:09 PM
May 2014

"In an abundance of water the fool is thirsty" Rat Race- Bob Marley, O.M.

2/3rds of this planet is covered with water.



Countries that have some common sense will never run out.

Even landlocked countries:



Desalination is safe, according to those that have studied it.
Skip to 5:19



2 choices: Prepare or do nothing.

Looks like many people prefer to do nothing.
 

quadrature

(2,049 posts)
19. not in my opinion.
Wed May 14, 2014, 06:47 AM
May 2014

for 'city people',
and light commercial activity,
fresh water from seawater costs next to nothing.

if you are a farmer living in a desert,
and need to irrigate.
desal water costs a LOT.

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