More Erosion, Salt Water In Aquifers, Septic System Failures; What 6" Rise By 2030 In Jax Looks Like
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On the First Coast, the St. Johns River Water Management District has said that the Jacksonville area can expect nearly six inches of water level rise by 2030. Sea level rise expectations are often given as a range of low to high probability. Director of the Coastal Biology Program and UNF Professor of Biology Courtney Hackney said that predictions range from 1-3 feet per 100 years for much of the East Coast. The National Climate Assessment’s estimates fall anywhere from 8 inches and 6.6 feet by 2100.
“That would be consistent with mid-range expectations from NOAA and the Army Corps of Engineers,” said Allen Tilley, an executive committee member of the Sierra Club Northeast Florida Group and a retired UNF English professor who participates in the Regional Community Institute’s project on sea level rise. “By 2040 we will be getting around eight inches and — by mid-century — about a foot and a half.”
The highest point in Jacksonville is 12.2 meters or 40 feet above sea level, according to the United States Geological Survey. Shirley said that places that flood at high tide will flood more frequently and to a greater depth while salt marshes and oyster reefs will decline, causing harm to fish species that depend on the habitats. “Increased shoreline erosion, saltwater intrusion affecting water supplies, and failing septic systems will be exacerbated by higher sea level,” he noted.
According to Hackney, effects of climate change are already perceptible in the area, with salt marshes flooding during high tide and small islands losing trees. He noted that the changes can be observed from the Butler Boulevard causeway near the Intracoastal Waterway where palms and pine trees are dying out. He also said that trees dying out from more frequent flooding can be found on several small islands near Julington Creek, and on the St. Johns and Ortega rivers.
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http://jacksonville.com/community/shorelines/2014-05-23/story/our-problems-begin-long-waves-are-lapping-door-area-experts