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Does history repeat? Using the past to improve ecological forecasting
http://www.news.wisc.edu/20347[font face=Times,Times New Roman,Serif][font size=5]Does history repeat? Using the past to improve ecological forecasting[/font]
Feb. 20, 2012
[font size=3]…
Right now, global climates are changing rapidly, and it is likely that this century will see the emergence of what he calls “no-analog” climates, combinations of climate factors – such as maximum and minimum temperature, amount and timing of precipitation, and seasonal variation – that do not exist anywhere on the globe today.
“There are areas of the world that are expected to develop novel climates this century,” Williams says. “How do we predict species’ responses to climates that are outside the modern range?”
To look at how ecological changes have been driven by past climate change, he draws on a recent historical period of abrupt global change – the late Quaternary Period, particularly the past 20,000 years, when the world warmed from the last ice age to the current interglacial period.
…
“The key message from paleoecological data is that novel climates in the past are linked to the emergence of novel communities,” he says. “We should expect the unexpected. At the same time, we can use this information to not just raise questions, but to improve ecological modeling tools.”
…[/font][/font]
Feb. 20, 2012
[font size=3]…
Right now, global climates are changing rapidly, and it is likely that this century will see the emergence of what he calls “no-analog” climates, combinations of climate factors – such as maximum and minimum temperature, amount and timing of precipitation, and seasonal variation – that do not exist anywhere on the globe today.
“There are areas of the world that are expected to develop novel climates this century,” Williams says. “How do we predict species’ responses to climates that are outside the modern range?”
To look at how ecological changes have been driven by past climate change, he draws on a recent historical period of abrupt global change – the late Quaternary Period, particularly the past 20,000 years, when the world warmed from the last ice age to the current interglacial period.
…
“The key message from paleoecological data is that novel climates in the past are linked to the emergence of novel communities,” he says. “We should expect the unexpected. At the same time, we can use this information to not just raise questions, but to improve ecological modeling tools.”
…[/font][/font]