New Scientist - The End For Polar Bears By 2075 - 100% Reproductive Failure, 20% Adult Starvation/Yr

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A world without cubs. That will be the reality facing polar bears in 60 years, when retreating sea ice turns their remaining habitat into a lethal nursery for youngsters, if greenhouse gas emissions continue unchecked.

By 2075, losing all newborn cubs could be commonplace in many parts of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago – a vast wilderness home to a quarter of the estimated global population of 20,000 polar bears – according to research led by Stephen Hamilton from the University of Alberta, Canada.

Without much of a new generation coming through to replace older bears, extinction of the species would seem certain – but putting a date on when that is likely to be is hard without knowing exactly how many bears are out there.

Hamilton's study is the major one to model when ice loss across the archipelago will make places unable to support polar bears. It also found that older animals are likely to be dying in large numbers by the end of the century.

EDIT

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn26620-loss-of-arctic-sea-ice-to-doom-polar-bears-by-2075.html#.VHcRlzHF_ts

[riversedge]

1. k and r.