Energy/Wealth & Predicting The Future Economy.
This is an audio interview (28:05 into the podcast).
https://www.mixcloud.com/Resonance/ecoshock-150505-london/
Below I have the brilliantly abbreviated notes of the discussion in print, at the link (1/3 down the page).
http://www.ecoshock.info/
"Here is an unusual plot for a story: an atmospheric scientist uses principles of physics to predict the global economy will slow to near zero growth. Then it's fragility and exposure to natural disasters suggest a high risk of "accelerating collapse"."
1. The global economy occurs in a physical world which is bound by relatively simple laws of physics.
If we discover new sources of energy, as in the Tar Sands of Alberta and heavy oil in North Dakota, these new energies will be applied to generate more wealth. It allows civilization to grow faster. Conversely running out of energy demands a smaller economy and less wealth. Garrett's formula allows us to predict the impacts of either scenario.
14. There are two ways this "fraying" may become more difficult to recover from. 1. We may not discover enough new energy resources to replace the wealth lost. Or 2. environmental disasters become more frequent and widespread, so that we struggle just to keep at our current level, and cannot grow further.
There's so much in this interview, it's hard to know what paragraphs to use for representation.
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