Economic Collapse Will Limit Climate Change, Predicts Climate Scientist

[GliderGuider]

Economic Collapse Will Limit Climate Change, Predicts Climate Scientist

In late 2014, the World Bank published a remarkable document that should have shaken the international business world. Titled "Turn Down the Heat: Confronting the New Climate Normal", it drew on 1,300 publications to explore the impacts of a world four degrees centigrade warmer - the world our grandchildren seem likely to inherit before the end of this century.

Authored by climate scientists of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, the report's three hundred plus pages are densely written and often hard for non-experts to understand. However, some passages about the impact of a 4°C temperature rise are crystal clear.

One sentence really caught my attention: "In a 4°C world, mean summer temperatures are expected to be up to 8°C warmer in parts of Algeria, Saudi Arabia and Iraq..." If summer mean temperatures are set to rise by more eight degrees in this already scorching region, I wondered, what about maximum temperatures? According to the study:

"In a 4°C world, 80 percent of summer months are projected to be hotter than 5-sigma (unprecedented heat extremes) by 2100, and about 65 percent are projected to be hotter than 5-sigma during the 2071-2099 period."

(GG: According to the article, the 2003 heat wave in Europe that killed 70,000 people was only a 3-sigma event)

To wrap up the interview, I asked Christopher Reyer how much hotter he thought the planet would be by the year 2100. "I'm not sure," he replied, "I'm not an expert on the policy side." I persisted, asking him not for an official projection, just for his best personal guess, a single number. He visibly relaxed.

"I guess it should be between three and four degrees hotter. We used to think that we were headed for +8°C, but that will never happen. We are not even on track for +6°C because economies will be collapsing long before we get there. We know that after +2°C, dangerous things start happening, and we start passing crucial tipping points, like the West Antarctica ice sheet collapse, which has reportedly already begun."

As I've been harping on for the last few years, the main driver of lower fossil fuel use will not be renewable energy or government policies, but economic collapse. Unlike the scientist in the article though, I expect economies to begin collapsing due to systemic failures long before we get to +2°C. But it's nice to know that even if that doesn't happen, climate change will give us a fallback Plan B. There is hope for the planet after all!

[saturnsring]

1. You're doing this all wrong

You have to have in your title something about Hillary or Bernie, circumcision, white privilege or benevolent sexism or no one will look at your post.
And what to do about the millions of refugees from the coasts moving inland

[libdem4life]

4. Fixed it for you...Not.

[Control-Z]

2. Excellent OP. Rec, rec, rec! n/t

[libdem4life]

3. Agree with Pster #1 ... "*******Sex Scandal in Washington*******

You won't believe the views...maybe not the responses, but at least views. Or, try *****Hillary Tells Bernie to Shove It ...It's Hot in the Kitchen********

[hatrack]

5. Is there some way to work "Epic Sideboob" or "Rocking A Bikini" into this post?

You know, a few more views couldn't hurt . . .

[happyslug]

6. What will happen if the West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapses some March or April in the Future?

You would have with two weeks a universal increase Sea Level of about 20 feet. Most of the world the tide is less then 8 feet:

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/tide_predictions.html?gid=62

Through in the bay of Fundy the tide can be 55 feet:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bay_of_Fundy

Given most tides are less then 7 feet, and most (but NOT all) US refineries are on the coast (Texas, Louisiana or New Jersey), a 20 feet raise in sea level will force all of the refineries along the sea coast to shut down. In many ways that is the single biggest problem with the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Collapsing.

Now, most off shore oil wells can take a 20 feet surge of water, but they are shut down at that increase, thus you will see the off shore oil fields (most of which are off the Texas and Louisiana Coasts) to shit down and rebuild.

Worse the tides off the Coast of Texas are some of the lowest in the world, less then 2 feet:

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/tide_predictions.html?gid=232#listing

On top of this, the busiest port in the US (Los Angles) has only a five foot tide, thus you are looking at it, having to adjust to 15 feet increase in water level overnight. Given today's use of containers, that is NOT as easy as it may sound. Containers are put into and pulled out of ships via huge overhead cranes.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Port_of_Long_Beach

The question is are these cranes tall enough to take on modern container ships, when the seal level is 20 feet higher then it is now? If yes, you will have a minor problem with trade, if the answer is NO, then international trade may die out till those cranes are lifted 20 feet.

Through this all may be moot, if the rail tracks are covered with water, that the crane can still pull containers off the ships quickly becomes moot.

Yes, if you look into what will happen, and that it will require a rebuild of most of the ports in the world, you will see a substantial down turn in carbon release just do to the reduction in activities that uses carbon based fuel.

Side note: The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is suspected to break some March or April day, the reason being that is when the Ice Shelf that borders the Ice Sheet is at its smallest extent. Some "Ides of March" may be the day we will all learn to regret.

[nilram]

7. Whups, I thought I clicked on the celebrity sex scandal thread.

[Canoe52]

8. K & R

Cause it's a great post anyway!