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Up to 30 percent less precipitation in the Central Andes in future
http://www.mediadesk.uzh.ch/articles/2015/in-zukunft-gibt-es-in-den-zentralen-anden-bis-zu-30-prozent-weniger-niederschlaege_en.html[font face=Serif]News release, August 17, 2015
[font size=5]Up to 30 percent less precipitation in the Central Andes in future[/font]
[font size=4]Seasonal water shortages already occur in the Central Andes of Peru and Bolivia. By the end of the century, precipitation could fall by up to 30% according to an international team of researchers led by the University of Zurich. In a first for this region, the team compared current climate data with future climate scenarios and data extending back to pre-Inca times.[/font]
[font size=3] The population in the Central Andes already faces water shortages today. Now geographers at the University of Zurich have collaborated with Swiss and South American researchers to show that precipitation in the rainy season could drop noticeably – and this could happen within the next twenty years.
In contrast to conventional research projects, which often look at climate forecasts in isolation, the UZH scientists compared data taken from tree rings and ice cores from the past 1,000 years with model calculations for the future. Their research found that current precipitation is within the normal fluctuation range for recent centuries. But this is projected to change dramatically by the end of the century: «Our model simulations suggest that the probability of dry years between 2071 and 2100 will be four times higher than in the pre-industrial era», says lead author Raphael Neukom.
…
Although almost all model simulations point to a decline in precipitation, the scientists note that the model and climate scenarios still present some uncertainties. Nevertheless, «although short-term predictions can be impacted by fluctuations that go against the overall trend, our data clearly shows that over the long term, i.e. through to the end of the century, the trend towards greater aridity in the Andes is unambiguous», explains UZH glaciologist Christian Huggel. Moreover, other factors such as the deforestation of the Amazon rainforest and lower levels of glacial meltwater could exacerbate the trend.
…[/font][/font]
[font size=5]Up to 30 percent less precipitation in the Central Andes in future[/font]
[font size=4]Seasonal water shortages already occur in the Central Andes of Peru and Bolivia. By the end of the century, precipitation could fall by up to 30% according to an international team of researchers led by the University of Zurich. In a first for this region, the team compared current climate data with future climate scenarios and data extending back to pre-Inca times.[/font]
[font size=3] The population in the Central Andes already faces water shortages today. Now geographers at the University of Zurich have collaborated with Swiss and South American researchers to show that precipitation in the rainy season could drop noticeably – and this could happen within the next twenty years.
In contrast to conventional research projects, which often look at climate forecasts in isolation, the UZH scientists compared data taken from tree rings and ice cores from the past 1,000 years with model calculations for the future. Their research found that current precipitation is within the normal fluctuation range for recent centuries. But this is projected to change dramatically by the end of the century: «Our model simulations suggest that the probability of dry years between 2071 and 2100 will be four times higher than in the pre-industrial era», says lead author Raphael Neukom.
…
Although almost all model simulations point to a decline in precipitation, the scientists note that the model and climate scenarios still present some uncertainties. Nevertheless, «although short-term predictions can be impacted by fluctuations that go against the overall trend, our data clearly shows that over the long term, i.e. through to the end of the century, the trend towards greater aridity in the Andes is unambiguous», explains UZH glaciologist Christian Huggel. Moreover, other factors such as the deforestation of the Amazon rainforest and lower levels of glacial meltwater could exacerbate the trend.
…[/font][/font]