Koppu Kills 12, Dumps 30+ Inches of Rain on Philippines

[phantom power]

This is going to be bad

Tropical Storm Koppu has weakened below typhoon strength, but is still bringing dangerous torrential rains to much of the Philippines' Luzon Island as the storm drifts north-northeastwards at 4 mph along the west coast of the island. Koppu, which is known as "Lando" in the Philippines, hit the east-coast province of Aurora around 1:00 am Sunday local time at peak strength, with sustained winds of 150 mph and a central pressure of 920 mb. Fortunately, that part of Luzon is fairly sparsely populated; the death toll from the typhoon stood at a relatively low twelve people on Monday morning. However, damage was reported to nearly 100% of the houses and infrastructure in the city of Casiguran (population 27,000), near where the storm made landfall, and some towns are still cut off from communications. At least 9 million residents of Luzon--close to 10 percent of the population of the Philippines--were without power at the height of the storm on Sunday afternoon local time (midnight Saturday night EDT), according to data from the Philippines National Disaster Risk and Reduction Management Council.

Torrential rains to grip Luzon for several days
Extreme rainfall and flooding remain the main threat from Koppu. Steering currents have collapsed, and the typhoon will move very slowly to the northeast at less than 5 mph over northern Luzon for the next 2 - 4 days. Although Koppu will continue to deteriorate as its center remains over or near land, its broad, strong circulation will keep pulling deep moisture into the island, where upslope flow against higher terrain will squeeze out mammoth amounts of rain. Even a tropical depression can produce enormous rains if it’s moving slowly, especially when positioned near high terrain, and Koppu should maintain at least tropical storm strength the next two days. At a minimum, we can expect widespread storm totals of one to two feet of rain across much of northern Luzon. Multi-day rainfall totals of over two feet will result in widespread flooding and mudslides, and major agricultural damage can be expected as well. It appears the heaviest rains will stay north of the Philippines' most heavily populated region--the capital of Manila--but Koppu could still end up as one of the top-five most costly natural disasters in Philippine history.

Torrential rains in excess of 20" have already hit the city of Baguio, a regional center with about 300,000 residents that’s popular among visitors for its relatively cool climate. Located at an elevation of roughly 5000 feet, but less than 20 miles from Luzon’s west coast, Baguio is highly vulnerable to moist westerly winds being forced upslope. A typhoon in July 1911 dumped more than 2,200 millimeters (87 inches) of rain on the city in less than four days. In September 2015, Typhoon Goni brought more than 700 millimeters (28 inches) of rain to Baguio, even without making a direct hit on the Philippines, as noted by weather.com. Baguio received 6.34" of rain from Koppu in the 24 hours ending at 00 UTC October 19, 2015, then another 15.94" in the twelve hours ending at 12 UTC (8 am EDT) Monday. Another 11.14" fell in the six hours ending at 18 UTC, for a 42-hour rainfall total of 33.42" (849 mm.) Monday morning rainfall forecasts from the HWRF model were projecting another 1 - 2 feet of rain over western Luzon Island from Koppu.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3159