"It’s Time to Rethink Syria"--Former WH Coordinator for Middle East Speaks Out

[KoKo]

For years, I helped advise President Obama on Syria. It’s now clearer than ever that a new strategy is needed.

By Philip Gordon (Philip Gordon is a Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. From 2013-15 he was White House Coordinator for the Middle East, North Africa and the Gulf Region.)
September 25, 2015

If somehow the tragic trajectory of the conflict in Syria were not apparent enough, several dramatic developments in recent weeks have come together to make it impossible to ignore. The most obvious is the influx into Europe of tens of thousands of desperate, hungry refugees—so devoid of hope in their homeland or neighboring refugee camps they are willing to risk drowning and starvation in the hope of finding a better life for themselves and their children.

The second is the growing evidence of the failure of efforts to train and equip a moderate, unified opposition capable of pressuring the Assad regime to change. Despite extensive efforts by the U.S. government and its partners to build such a force, the opposition remains deeply fragmented, dominated by extremists and incapable of threatening Assad’s rule or of stabilizing Syria even if the regime did somehow fall. Even the lesser objective of equipping and training a vetted force able to degrade and destroy the “Islamic State” (ISIL) has proven unachievable, as became clear with the recent U.S. announcements that the small initial group of fighters deployed were immediately killed or captured, and that fewer than ten U.S.-trained fighters are fighting ISIL. It should now be clear that while arming and training some opposition forces might be part of a long-term solution in Syria, they will never be a decisive factor in resolving the conflict.

The third sign was the news that Russia has decided to deploy its own forces in Syria—allegedly to fight ISIL but clearly also to bolster the Assad regime. Russia’s move should not have come as a surprise. President Vladimir Putin has for years been deeply hostile to the concept of regime change anywhere in the region, which he believes threatens not only Russia’s vital interests and allies but potentially his own hold on power. Moreover, Russia has long expressed real concern, not unfounded, that Assad’s fall under the wrong circumstances would not bring stability but even more chaos, displacement and extremism, as ISIL or other Islamist terrorists took over Damascus. Russia’s deployment in Syria underscores the reality that the periodic, hopeful reports that Assad regime may finally be crumbling are likely to be mistaken again. Russia, let alone Iran, is not going to allow the regime to fall unless and until they believe that whatever replaces it will not threaten their core interests.

These developments make it increasingly difficult to deny what should have been apparent for some time—the current policy of the United States and its partners, to increase pressure on Assad so that he “comes to the table” and negotiates his own departure—must be rethought. As the Coordinator for Middle East policy in the White House from 2013 until April of this year, I watched and participated as the administration grappled with what one top official called “the hardest problem we’ve faced—ever,” and I know just how bad all of the options are. But the urgency of the humanitarian crisis, now with the potential to destabilize Europe as well—along with Russia’s dangerous new escalation—means we must revisit some fundamental questions about a conflict that is tearing the region apart. What’s needed is a new diplomatic process that brings all the key external actors to the table and agrees on a messy compromise to deescalate the conflict—even if that means putting off agreement on the question of Assad.

Matching Ends and Means

Continued....an interesting read at......

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/09/its-time-to-rethink-syria-213184

[TreasonousBastard]

1. I've heard this before and it makes sense...

both the US and Russia have fixations on our spheres of influence and have a horrific fear of losing the slightest bit of it.

I'm not sure of the specifics, but the military-industrial complex added to the lingering Soviet phobias lying about with exteme Islamophobia must make it difficult for the White House to just drop Syria even if it wanted to. And we're not all that sure it wants to, particularly with China taking bites out of our supremacy.

But, just as we totally fucked up Iraq because we didn't like the dictator, we seem to be willing to fuck up Syria in an even worse way.

The simple truth is that we're not very good at the job of being the last superpower-- perhaps no one around now would be very good at it.