Echoes of war across the South Caucasus

[bemildred]

TBILISI, Georgia - As the standoff over Iran's nuclear program intensifies, South Caucasus leaders are pondering contingencies since the consequences of open conflict or prolonged tensions are potentially serious for all three nations.

Over the past several years, Iran has become an increasingly influential player in the South Caucasus as Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia have each sought to diversify their economic and political ties away from their traditional alliances - none more so than Armenia, which now relies on Iran as a major trading partner and investor.

However, with tensions on the rise in the Persian Gulf, and with threats by Iran to disrupt oil supplies passing through the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for the sanctions that have been slapped on it by various countries over its uranium-enrichment activities, South Caucasus capitals are pondering what role they would play should the standoff get hot.

While some analysts see opportunity for the region, others worry the three small countries could get pulled into an unpredictable conflict.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/NB03Ag01.html

[amandabeech]

1. You know, there are far too many seething conflicts flaring up right now.

Eastern and southern Europe, the Middle East and North Africa, now the Caucasus. In Greece, there seems to be a strong thread of anti-Germanism, as in Germany is taking over again but with the banks not the tanks. That may spread.

I just get this 1914 deja-vu all over again.

Thank you so much for your posts.

on edit: When is spell-check coming back?

[bemildred]

2. Yes, that's what I come back to too, WWI.

All it takes is one moron with a grudge, and off we go.

[amandabeech]

3. My only thought is that it might take more than one moron.

The days of the Cold War seem strangely peaceful, looking back from today. The duelists managed to keep their seconds sufficiently in check that, the bombs didn't go off.

Now everyone's a duelist and what are left of the seconds do their own thing.

I expect a tough summer, here and elsewhere, and some tough years thereafter.

I don't see any current world leaders who are up to the task of keeping this under control and minimizing the damage to people, communities and important institutions.

[bemildred]

4. Yeah. But it seems we have a vast supply.

But, aren't we just the life of the party? Heck. It's a unique moment in history. Any historian worth his salt would kill to be here. I feel privileged just to be able to watch.

(There, I put a nicer spin on it.)

[amandabeech]

5. Yes, the world has a very vast supply of them.

Honors History, Univ. of Michigan, 1977. Started reading newspapers and news magazines at age 10. I stand accused.

You did put a nicer spin on it.

I always enjoy your posts bemildred.

[bemildred]

6. Why thank you.

My brother was a history major, I just like to read a lot. Once I had read Gibbon and Herodotus and Tacitus, a vast field opened before me, stranger than fiction, far from the modern world, irrational, unsane.

And yet, the authors themselves often have the most modern sensibilities.

Allow me to offer my respects for that accomplishment.

[amandabeech]

7. Thank you very much.

I thoroughly enjoyed all my courses, but there wasn't enough time to take all the courses in the catalog!

I think that you are probably more learned in history than I, because you have really kept reading books. I took a detour to law, which has taken a decent amount of my time, but now I wish that I'd gone for a PhD in history.

Perhaps when I retire, I'll take a few courses at the local community college and read more books.

[bemildred]

8. Law is not bad either. Very interesting subject. And it has a history too.

I would think a historical knowledge of law could even be useful in practice, once in a while. Gibbon has a nice section of Justinian's reforms and their effect on later European law.

I spent 35 years mostly reading math and computer stuff. Most of my mental energy went in that direction. Which was appropriate at the time, what I wanted to do.

Then I retired, and then I got to read history, or anything else I want. A great luxury. I begrudge any time spent on my old professional concerns. So I can encourage you to keep thinking that way. It can happen, and it is good. Mostly I read literature, history, and a smattering of current events. I find DU does a good job of keeping me informed about current events. I like foreign language literature when I can find good translations, your best shot at understanding what it was like to be someone else in some other place or time, getting outside of your native cultural box.

I have always liked what I call "recreational education", taking classes for fun, but you have to dissemble a bit, they always want you to finish something. I have thought many times about teaching CC or taking classes, but I find I am too busy as it is, and too much the introvert.