End Times for the Caliphate? -- Patrick Cockburn

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The war in Syria and Iraq has produced two new de facto states in the last five years and enabled a third quasi-state greatly to expand its territory and power. The two new states, though unrecognised internationally, are stronger militarily and politically than most members of the UN. One is the Islamic State, which established its caliphate in eastern Syria and western Iraq in the summer of 2014 after capturing Mosul and defeating the Iraqi army. The second is Rojava, as the Syrian Kurds call the area they gained control of when the Syrian army largely withdrew in 2012, and which now, thanks to a series of victories over IS, stretches across northern Syria between the Tigris and Euphrates. In Iraq, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), already highly autonomous, took advantage of IS’s destruction of Baghdad’s authority in northern Iraq to expand its territory by 40 per cent, taking over areas long disputed between itself and Baghdad, including the Kirkuk oilfields and some mixed Kurdish-Arab districts.



The question is whether these radical changes in the political geography of the Middle East will persist – or to what extent they will persist – when the present conflict is over. The Islamic State is likely to be destroyed eventually, such is the pressure from its disunited but numerous enemies, though its adherents will remain a force in Iraq, Syria and the rest of the Islamic world. The Kurds are in a stronger position, benefiting as they do from US support, but that support exists only because they provide some 120,000 ground troops which, in co-operation with the US-led coalition air forces, have proved an effective and politically acceptable counter to IS. The Kurds fear that this support will evaporate if and when IS is defeated and they will be left to the mercy of resurgent central governments in Iraq and Syria as well as Turkey and Saudi Arabia. ‘We don’t want to be used as cannon fodder to take Raqqa,’ a Syrian Kurdish leader in Rojava told me last year. I heard the same thing this month five hundred miles to the east, in KRG territory near Halabja on the Iranian border, from Muhammad Haji Mahmud, a veteran Peshmerga commander and general secretary of the Socialist Party, who led one thousand fighters to defend Kirkuk from IS in 2014. His son Atta was killed in the battle. He said he worried that ‘once Mosul is liberated and IS defeated, the Kurds won’t have the same value internationally.’ Without this support, the KRG would be unable to hold onto its disputed territories.

http://www.lrb.co.uk/v38/n05/patrick-cockburn/end-times-for-the-caliphate

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1. The Latest: UN makes 1st airdrops to IS-besieged Syria city

6: 10 p.m.

The U.N. humanitarian chief says a World Food Program plane has dropped the first cargo of desperately needed aid to the Syrian city of Deir el-Zour which is surrounded by the extremist Islamic State group.

Stephen O'Brien told the U.N. Security Council that 21 tons of aid were dropped early on Wednesday. He says initial reports from Syrian Arab Red Crescent teams on the ground say the pallets landed in the target area.

O'Brien says the U.N. and its partners have reached 110,000 people in besieged areas and have approval to reach a further 230,000 people, including through air drops in Deir el-Zour.

But he says the U.N. is still waiting for approval to reach 170,000 additional people in besieged areas and "we expect those approvals to happen immediately."

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/S/SYRIA_THE_LATEST?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2016-02-24-11-06-34

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3. UN says poised for huge Syria aid effort, if the door opens

GENEVA, Feb 24 (Reuters) - The United Nations is ready for a huge aid effort if the warring Syria parties stop fighting, but even then aid workers will proceed carefully and assess the safety of each delivery, a U.N. spokesman said on Wednesday.

"We are now standing by, our warehouses are full of aid supplies, aid agencies are alerted, and are stocking all the goods in the warehouses waiting for the signal," said Iyad Nasr, regional spokesman for the U.N. humanitarian aid office.

Syria's war has killed over 250,000 people and left 4.5 million hard to reach with humanitarian aid, the U.N. says. Of those, about one in 10 is living under siege, cut off from any help.

A U.S.-Russian proposal for a limited "cessation of hostilities" from midnight on Saturday is intended to allow rapid and unhindered access for humanitarian agencies but it excludes Islamic State and Nusra Front fighters, and Syria's opposition has yet to back the deal.

http://news.trust.org/item/20160224143657-4j7ch/?source=fiOtherNews2

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2. Russia starts ceasefire talks with rebels in five Syria provinces

MOSCOW - Moscow said Wednesday it has started ceasefire negotiations with rebel groups in five Syrian provinces following a Moscow-Washington deal on a cessation of hostilities in the war-torn country.

The Russian defence ministry said in a statement that it has opened a coordination centre in Syria that is "already carrying out work with representatives of the groups in various settlements in the provinces of Hama, Homs, Latakia, Damascus and Deraa."

Russian President Vladimir Putin's apparent determination to seal a ceasefire in Syria shows Moscow is keen to cement its gains after saving Bashar al-Assad and forcing its way back to the heart of international diplomacy, analysts say.

When Moscow blindsided the West by launching a high-risk air campaign last September, Assad's army was crumbling and the Kremlin was being given the cold shoulder over the conflict in Ukraine.

http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=75441

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4. Russian air force lowers strike intensity in Syria

MOSCOW, Feb. 24 (Xinhua) -- Russian combat aircraft have lowered the intensity of their airstrikes in Syria in the past two days, the Russian Defense Ministry said Wednesday.

The Russian air force has carried out 62 sorties in the last 48 hours, hitting 187 terrorist targets, Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said in an online statement.

"The intensity of Russian airstrikes in Syria fell significantly in the past two days, especially in areas where local authorities and armed groups have agreed to cease hostilities and start negotiations," Konashenkov said.

On Monday, Russia and the United States announced a plan of cessation of hostilities in Syria, demanding that any party engaged in the conflict in Syria indicate to Russia or the United States their commitment to the ceasefire by no later than 12:00 p.m. Damascus time (1000 GMT) on Saturday.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2016-02/24/c_135127991.htm

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5. Key players in Syria conflict back ceasefire deal following calls with Russia, US

Syrian President Assad has agreed to honor a planned ceasefire following a phone call with Moscow. While a number of groups have also agreed to support the deal, parts of the Syrian opposition have yet to sign on.

With the clock ticking on a US-Russia brokered ceasefire deal, Syria's President Bashar al-Assad said he was ready to respect the terms of the proposed truce on Wednesday.

After discussing the deal in detail on the phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Assad said the proposals are "important step in the direction of a political settlement," the Kremlin said in a statement.

"In particular, [Assad] confirmed the readiness of the Syrian government to facilitate the establishment of a ceasefire," the statement said.

http://www.dw.com/en/key-players-in-syria-conflict-back-ceasefire-deal-following-calls-with-russia-us/a-19070676

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6. US-Russian Cease-Fire Pact: Closer to a Syria War Endgame? -- By Gareth Porter

The United States and Russia are hoping that the partial Syrian cease-fire agreement they reached Monday to take effect February 27 will begin a new phase of the war. The cease-fire will not apply to operations against al Qaeda's franchise in Syria (al Nusra Front), and the two powers have apparently agreed to try to split off a significant number of armed opposition groups from their cooperation with al Nusra Front.

Along with continued Russian, Syrian and Iranian operations against al Nusra Front, that split could further weaken the al Qaeda franchise and begin a process of winding down the war between the Assad regime and military forces other than ISIS.

It is by no means certain that the US-Russian agreement will have that effect. The two powers, as co-chairs of the International Syria Support Group (ISSG) have said they have gotten the assent of their allies in the group as well as Russia's Syrian government ally. But Turkey and Saudi Arabia are known to be unhappy with US policy, and it is unclear whether they would seek to undermine the agreement by encouraging armed groups not to give up the fight.

If the agreement does make any substantial progress toward that end, it will be a consequence of Russian and Syrian military success in threatening to cut the supply lines between the Nusra Front-led coalition of armed groups and the Turkish border. That success may be the only chance for ending the bloodletting in Syria, but it has come at a high price: A vastly increased tempo of airstrikes and some questionable targeting has caused a major increase in civilian casualties.

http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/34957-us-russian-ceasefire-pact-closer-to-a-syria-war-endgame

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7. Report: Dozens of Russian generals in Syria killed after a car bomb hits their military base

Seeing this in a couple places, don't believe it yet.

The military base that was hit by the car bomb is considered one of the most important military centers of the Russian forces on the Syrian coast, located some 15 kilometers from Latakia.

Dozens of Russian generals at a military base near the eastern Syrian city of Latakia were killed Sunday afternoon in a deadly car bomb attack committed by two opposition factions, Ahrar al-Sham and Bayan movement, Syrian opposition groups reported on Wednesday.

According to the media office of Ahrar al-Sham, the two factions, in coordination with local jihadists who were located at the Russian military base, decided to bomb the car after they observed a gathering of senior Russian generals at the military base.

Ahrar al-Sham claims that dozens of Russian generals were killed and injured in the explosion. According to the movement, the announcement of the terror attack was delayed until Wednesday to ensure that the jihadists who committed the attack returned safely to opposition territories.

http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Report-Dozens-of-Russian-generals-in-Syria-killed-after-a-car-bomb-hits-their-military-base-445975

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8. Syria rebels say bombed Russia officers near Latakia

BEIRUT – A powerful Islamist rebel faction has claimed it bombed a gathering of Russian officers near Syria’s Latakia on February 21, the same day reports emerged of a mystery blast in the area.

Ahrar al-Sham announced Wednesday afternoon that it conducted a special operation alongside the Harakat al-Bayan faction that “managed to destroy a gathering of top Russian generals… near the city of Latakia with a car bomb.”

The joint statement issued by both groups added that a car bombing outside the meeting “caused the death and injury” of dozens of Russian officers, a claim that Moscow has yet to officially comment on.

“Following a monitoring, scouting and preparation mission that lasted for several weeks, the Ashab al-Naqb company, in cooperation with [Ahrar and Harakat al-Bayan], was able to deliver the car bomb to the military base,” the statement added.

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/NewsReports/566653-syria-rebels-say-bombed-russia-officers-near-latakia

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9. . nt

[Jim__]

10. How are things going to shake out in the Middle East?

Is there anyone in the world who would attempt to predict that? George W Bush completely destabilized the area - it may be a very long time before it settles down.

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11. Well, even physics is chaotic, unpredictable in principle, except locally, right?

Bounded, discrete, limited, finite?

So what luck is to be had with us?

And math is incomplete.

I'm reading in your journal, which is very interesting ... I may have more to say about that, but it looks to be over my head, so maybe not. We'll see. But in any case, thanks for the links.

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I have a notion of whom the various parties are and what they are up to, and I study it to try to understand what is coming next, with partial success at times, and that amuses me and keeps me engaged with reality, so to speak.

It appears at the moment that at least some elements of the Russian and US governments have agreed to cooperate to stop the war, and are busy trying to compel the other actors to obey with carrots (the chance to negotiate, not being bombed) and sticks (no chance to negotiate, being bombed by both superpowers).

Meanwhile, some humanitarian aid is being allowed in finally.

I expect Putin to insist on one or more Kurdish political entities along Turkey's southern border as a firewall against repetition and to punish Erdogan.

And other things, but as you say it is not really predictable.

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12. Analysts: Assad’s Ba'athists Would Win Electoral Landslide

ISTANBUL, TURKEY—

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s ruling Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party would win a landslide victory in any parliamentary elections held either in the next few months or during a political transition following a permanent cessation of hostilities in the war-ravaged country, election experts and diplomats warn.

President Assad Monday announced parliamentary elections for April, issuing a decree for polls to be held for the country’s 250-member legislature, known as the People’s Council, which is elected for a four-year term from 15 multi-seat constituencies.

The election announcement is being dubbed a PR gimmick by opposition politicians and election experts, who argue that even in the highly unlikely event the vicious five-year-long Syrian civil war ended abruptly in the next few weeks, any such election would fail to meet acceptable international standards.

http://www.voanews.com/content/assad-baathists-would-win-an-electoral-landslide-analysts-predict/3204701.html

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13. Obama's real geopolitics in Syria

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What makes the matter more complicated is the Russian backing of the Assad-Iran-Hezbollah offensive targeting Aleppo and aiming at reaching the Turkish borders. Ankara perceives this advance as threatening to its national security as its Syrian partners could be destroyed and replaced by hostile forces. Even worse, from Turkey's perspective, would be a realpolitik understanding between the axis and the YPJ to control all of the Syrian-Turkish borders. Unbearable it would be for Turkey to have a "hostile" force—allied to the PKK—seizing the southern Syrian frontiers entirely. In Ankara the perception is eerily clear: There could be an undeclared understanding between the United States and Russia that these borders would be divided between Assad and the YPJ. But the Obama administration denies such an understanding, despite the fact that realities on the ground match this projection.

Since the Russian-Turkish incident in the air, a new more sinister menace has risen. Putin has signaled that his air assets will serve as dome to protect the advancing axis forces towards Aleppo and the border. The message to Ankara is a warning to not shield its allies in Syria with airpower. But Turkey has also signaled that its airspace will be defended. Washington is hurrying to stop the escalation and to draw a virtual line. It will stand with Turkey on land or in the air, but not inside Syrian airspace. It would tolerate Turkish strikes on PKK assets in Syria and welcome air strikes on Daesh. However, it warns against any Turkish sorties to protect the Syrian opposition

The USand Turkish positions towards the YPJ enclave in Syria at this point are linked to the much larger equation involving Russia and Iran. To analysts in Washington, the real impetus against Turkey's action against the perceived YPJ-PKK challenge and against Turkish backing to the Sunni opposition in Syria is the regional power now in control of the geopolitical game in the Levant: the Iranian regime.

Iran has a direct stake in the outcome in Syria. It wants a geopolitical bridge from Tehran to Beirut, passing by Iraq and by an Assad controlled Syria. Tehran does not want Turkish or Arab Sunni interference in Syria. Toward that purpose it was able to pressure Obama with the Iran Deal, bring in the Russians, use all of its cards to keep Turkey away from Syria and Iraq, and deter the Gulf from any inroads in the area. In short, Turkey finds itself at odds with a United States protecting the YPJ, only because Iran has succeeded in buying its influence in Syria and Iraq, precisely from the current American administration.

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/articles/americas/24123-obamas-real-geopolitics-in-syria

Dr Walid Phares is the President of the Global Policy Institute and a Professor of International Relations at BAUI University in Washington.

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14. A new ‘Johnson letter’?: Obama’s Turkey-Russia problem

The real problem for the next American administration will not only be Russian hegemony over Syria but Turkey's propensity to challenge this domination by trying to get NATO involved in a conflict with Moscow.

What a difference a few months make. Initially, the Barack Obama administration was quick to dismiss Moscow's entry into the Syrian war as a “misguided adventure that will easily turn into a quagmire.” Such a reaction was hardly surprising for an administration that refused American exceptionalism. After all, Obama had overlearned the lessons of Iraq. He never believed there was a military solution to the civil war in Syria. Almost eight years after being in power, the Obama White House remains as reluctant as ever to project decisive American military power in the conflict. There is still an acute awareness about the limits of American military power in terms of changing the situation in Syria for the better.

However, it is also becoming painfully clear that the American reluctance to get involved in Syria comes at a geostrategic price. Russian President Vladimir Putin has radically altered the dynamics of the Syrian conflict in favor of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Unlike Obama, Putin is all about hard power and it is clear that Russia is in Syria to stay. This means Assad's regime is there to stay, too. Maybe there will be some cosmetic changes in terms of leadership in Damascus down the line. But the nature of the regime is not likely to change radically as long as Russian and Iranian forces remain on the ground while American forces continue to be absent.

http://www.todayszaman.com/columnist/omer-taspinar/a-new-johnson-letter-obamas-turkey-russia-problem_413205.html

[KoKo]

15. ....! Bookmarked to read Later.....

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16. Quite rational, on the whole.

He seems more obsessed with Iran than usual, but doesn't seem to know that Iran doesn't think much of free Kurdistan either.

But he is right about what Iran wants, and that is likely what Putin wants too, as we discussed before, but I think Putin wants a free Kurdistan too, and I don't think Iran will like that much.

He seems relatively rational about the Kurds too, not obsessed like usual.

I have reached the conclusion that Davutoğlu's main job skill is not making Erdogan look bad in any way.