Insurgents could quickly bounce back in Afghanistan, analysis warns

[unhappycamper]

http://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-us-afghanistan-20131230,0,2259163.story



A member of a U.S. military route-clearance team works in Kunduz province in April. Security conditions in Afghanistan probably will worsen regardless of whether the U.S. keeps troops in the country, according to a new, classified assessment by U.S. intelligence agencies.

Insurgents could quickly bounce back in Afghanistan, analysis warns
By David S. Cloud
December 29, 2013, 6:38 p.m

WASHINGTON — U.S. intelligence agencies warn in a new, classified assessment that insurgents could quickly regain control of key areas of Afghanistan and threaten the capital as soon as 2015 if American troops are fully withdrawn next year, according to two officials familiar with the findings.

The National Intelligence Estimate, which was given recently to the White House, has deeply concerned some U.S. officials. It represents the first time the intelligence community has formally warned that the Afghan government could face significantly more serious attacks in Kabul from a resurgent Taliban within months of a U.S. pullout, the officials said, speaking anonymously to discuss classified material.

The assessment also concludes that security conditions probably will worsen regardless of whether the U.S. keeps troops in the country.

"It's very pessimistic about the future, more pessimistic than ever before," said one of the officials.




unhappycamper comment: D'oh. Evidently someone in National Security took at look at wikipedia or read some history:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vietnam_war


Fall of Saigon



Evacuation of CIA station personnel by Air America on 29 April 1975.

Chaos, unrest, and panic broke out as hysterical South Vietnamese officials and civilians scrambled to leave Saigon. Martial law was declared. American helicopters began evacuating South Vietnamese, U.S., and foreign nationals from various parts of the city and from the U.S. embassy compound. Operation Frequent Wind had been delayed until the last possible moment, because of U.S. Ambassador Graham Martin's belief that Saigon could be held and that a political settlement could be reached.

Schlesinger announced early in the morning of 29 April 1975 the evacuation from Saigon by helicopter of the last U.S. diplomatic, military, and civilian personnel. Frequent Wind was arguably the largest helicopter evacuation in history. It began on 29 April, in an atmosphere of desperation, as hysterical crowds of Vietnamese vied for limited space. Martin pleaded with Washington to dispatch $700 million in emergency aid to bolster the regime and help it mobilize fresh military reserves. But American public opinion had soured on this conflict.

In the United States, South Vietnam was perceived as doomed. President Gerald Ford had given a televised speech on 23 April, declaring an end to the Vietnam War and all U.S. aid. Frequent Wind continued around the clock, as North Vietnamese tanks breached defenses on the outskirts of Saigon. In the early morning hours of 30 April, the last U.S. Marines evacuated the embassy by helicopter, as civilians swamped the perimeter and poured into the grounds. Many of them had been employed by the Americans and were left to their fate.
Victorious NVA troops at the Presidential Palace, Saigon.

On 30 April 1975, NVA troops entered the city of Saigon and quickly overcame all resistance, capturing key buildings and installations. A tank from the 324th Division crashed through the gates of the Independence Palace at 11:30 am local time and the Viet Cong flag was raised above it. President Dương Văn Minh, who had succeeded Huong two days earlier, surrendered.[249]

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Occupations are difficult to win. What makes you think this outcome will be any different than Vietnam?

[ConcernedCanuk]

1. Bounce BACK ?????

.
.
.

Taliban has had the USA on the run for a dozen years.

USA just couldn't hit enough weddings and schools I guess.

And for every civilian killed by drones or otherwise, USA creates thousands more enemies in the region.

Only time will tell whether Iraq or Afghanistan is the MIC/PNAC et al gang's biggest folly.

And they want to mess with Iran now?



CC

[dipsydoodle]

2. Karzai had already made clear

that if the US do stay the Taliban will become completely off limits to them. The US will be restricted solely to pursuit of the remaining max. 100 or so al Qaeda members there.

I remain perplexed as to why the Taliban were referred to as insurgents in the first place.