The Coming Ukrainian Insurgency

[Ghost Dog]

... If Russia limits its offensive to the east and south of Ukraine, a sovereign Ukrainian government will not stop fighting. It will enjoy reliable military and economic support from abroad and the backing of a united population. But if Russia pushes on to occupy much of the country and install a Kremlin-appointed puppet regime in Kyiv, a more protracted and thorny conflagration will begin. Putin will face a long, bloody insurgency that could spread across multiple borders, perhaps even reaching into Belarus to challenge Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, Putin’s stalwart ally. Widening unrest could destabilize other countries in Russia’s orbit, such as Kazakhstan, and even spill into Russia itself...

... Any future insurgency will benefit from Ukraine’s geography. The country is bordered by four NATO states: Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia. Belarus, a Russian ally, is itself bordered by Poland on the west and another NATO member—Lithuania—on the north. These long borders offer the United States and NATO an enduring way to support Ukrainian resistance and a long-term insurgency and to stoke unrest in Belarus should the United States and its allies choose to covertly aid opposition to Lukashenko’s regime...

... As the United States learned in Vietnam and Afghanistan, an insurgency that has reliable supply lines, ample reserves of fighters, and sanctuary over the border can sustain itself indefinitely, sap an occupying army’s will to fight, and exhaust political support for the occupation at home. Russia would also have to think twice before trying to chase insurgents across the border into Poland, for instance, since such actions could trigger war with NATO...

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2022-02-25/coming-ukrainian-insurgency

... (British Minister) Mr Heappey disclosed that the Ministry of Defence was working on plans to support a resistance movement and a government in exile if Ukraine was finally overrun.

“That is a decision for the National Security Council to take but it is something that the Prime Minister has asked us in the Ministry of Defence to look at and plan for,” he told Sky News...

https://www.plymouthherald.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/uk-send-more-arms-ukrainian-6724070

Little chance of peace for Ukraine residents in that direction, then...

[RockCreek]

1. WHY would a Ukrainian government in exile

Choose to go to the UK now? Are they having delusions that the world configuration is as it was in 1939? A government in exile in a EEC member country would make a statement about where Ukrainian belongs in the world. And I don't think the Ukrainians we have seen would want to put up with the ongoing Tory BS.